Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Michigan State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Spartans for their NCAA Tournament matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Sananda Fru (13) makes a slam dunk during the second half against the South Florida Bulls during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (24-10, 11-7 ACC) is set to face Michigan State (26-7, 15-5 Big Ten) on Saturday, Mar. 21 at 2:45 p.m. EST at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. for the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Spartans:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Michigan State	Louisville
AP/USAT	11th/11th	23rd/24th
SOS	19th	38th
SOR	13th	24th
NET	11th	17th
WAB	12th	24th
RPI	8th	25th
BPI	13th	12th
KenPom	9th	20th
Torvik	10th	17th
EvanMiya	10th	20th

Team Leaders

	Michigan State	Louisville
Points	Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.4)	Ryan Conwell (18.7)
Rebounds	Jaxon Kohler (9.1)	Sananda Fru (6.1)
Assists	Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.2)	Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)
Steals	Jeremy Fears Jr. (1.2)	Ryan Conwell (1.2)
Blocks	Carson Cooper (0.9)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	Michigan State	Louisville
Points Per Game	79.3	84.7
Field Goal %	47.4	47.2
FGM/FGA Per Game	27.7/58.5	28.7/60.8
Three Point %	36.3	36.1
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	7.7/21.3	11.6/32.1
Free Throw %	76.6	76.1
FTM/FTA Per Game	16.2/21.1	15.7/20.6

Rebounding

	Michigan State	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	39.7	38.5
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.5	11.3
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.2	27.2
Rebound Margin	11.6	5.3

Defense

	Michigan State	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	68.4	72.4
Opp. FG%	41.1	42.2
Opp. 3PT%	32.6	32.0
Steals Per Game	5.1	6.8
Blocks Per Game	4.2	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	10.0	11.8

Ball Handling

	Michigan State	Louisville
Assists Per Game	18.7	17.1
Turnovers Per Game	11.5	11.9
Turnover Margin	-1.5	-0.2
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.62	1.43

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 51 percent chance to win against the Spartans. Louisville has a BPI rating of 18.8 (12th overall), whereas Michigan State has a BPI rating of 18.5 (13th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 41 percent chance to take down the Spartans, with a projected final score of 77-75 in favor of MSU. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +25.00 (20th overall), whereas Michigan State has an adjusted efficiency margin of +28.48 (9th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 46 percent chance to take down Sparty, with a projected final score of 76-75 in favor of MSU. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9347 (17th overall), whereas Michigan State has a "Barthag" of .9441 (10th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Michigan State 73, Louisville 72.

(Photo of Sananda Fru: Gregory Fisher - Imagn Images)

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