Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. James Madison

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Dukes for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals tight end Jaleel Skinner (88) right, celebrates with Louisville Cardinals running back (26) Duke Watson after he scored a touchdown during the Cards' 51-17 win over Eastern Kentucky University at the Cardinals' season opener Saturday, August 30, 2025 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (1-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face James Madison (1-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) on Friday, Sept. 5 at 7:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Dukes:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	James Madison	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	RV/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	103rd	109th
SOR	56th	62nd
SP+	44th	20th
FPI	71st	41st
Sagarin	66th	18th
Kelley Ford	66th	30th

Offensive Statistics

	James Madison	Louisville
Total Offense	37th (458.0)	11th (542.0)
Yards Per Play	43rd (6.45)	12th (8.09)
Scoring Offense	23rd (45.0)	16 (51.0)
Passing Yards	105th (145.0)	19th (313.0)
Yards Per Completion	115th (8.53)	49th (12.52)
Rushing Yards	6th (313.0)	31st (229.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	14th (7.11)	9th (7.63)
First Downs Gained	51st (23)	18th (28)
3rd Down Con. %	34th (53.8%)	9th (66.7%)
4th Down Con. %	86th (33.3%)	100th (0.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	1st (100.0%)	1st (100.0%)
Turnovers Lost	98th (2)	118th (3)
Interceptions Thrown	79th (1)	128th (3)
Fumbles Lost	88th (1)	1st (0)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	112th (8.0)	1st (1.00)
Sacks Allowed	36th (1.00)	1st (0.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	45th (32:27)	69th (30:25)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	James Madison	Louisville
Total Defense	10th (148.0)	11th (150.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play
Scoring Defense	38th (10.0)	69th (17.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	14th (84.0)	12th (76.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed	26th (64.0)	34th (74.0)
First Downs Allowed	16th (10)	16th (10)
3rd Down Defensive %	29th (21.4%)	33rd (23.1%)
4th Down Defensive %	1st (0.0%)	1st (0.0%)
Red Zone Defensive %	71st (100.0%)	71st (100.0%)
Turnovers Gained	7th (3)	N/A
Interceptions Caught	4th (3)	N/A
Fumbles Recovered	N/A	N/A
TFL Per Game	76th (5.0)	55th (6.0)
Sacks Per Game	N/A	10th (4.0)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	James Madison	Louisville
Net Punting	90th (38.00)	45th (43.00)
Avg. Kickoff Return	38th (23.00)	5th (44.00)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	61st (16.00)	69th (17.00)
Avg. Punt Return	87th (1.00)	13th (22.33)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	4th (0.00)	4th (0.00)
Field Goal Attempts	1-2	1-1
PAT	6-6	6-7

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 77.9 percent chance to win against the Dukes. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.7 (41st overall), whereas James Madison has an FPI rating of -1.3 (71st overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 74.88 percent chance to take down the Dukes. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.2 (20th overall), whereas James Madison has an SP+ rating of 6.3 (44th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have an 83 percent chance to defeat the Dukes. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.1 (30th overall), whereas James Madison has a KFord rating of 1.1 (66th overall)

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 38, James Madison 21.

(Photo of Duke Watson, Jaleel Skinner: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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