Way-Too-Early Louisville Football 2024 Season Projection

The Cardinals kick off their season in 115 days.

Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm (left) / Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Spring practice for the Louisville football program is well in the rear view mirror, and the countdown to kickoff has officially begun.

There's still a lot that can transpire in the 115 days between now and the Cardinals' season opener against Austin Peay on Saturday, Aug. 31. However, Louisville Report decided to take a shot at giving a way-too-early prediction at Louisville's record for the 2024 football season.

Related: Who's In, Who's Out and Who's Back for Louisville Football in 2024

Take a look below at our game-by-game predictions, along with a final season win-loss record:

Austin Peay (Saturday, Aug. 31)

Last Meeting: First Meeting
All-Time Series: First Meeting

Summary: Austin Peay might be an FCS school, but they were one of the better teams at that level of competition last season. The Governors gave Tennessee an early upset scare before the Vols eventually pulled away, they went undefeated in in conference play to clinch a bid in the FCS Playoffs, and finished with a No. 12 ranking in the FCS coaches poll.

However, after the season, head coach Scott Walden left to accept the job at UTEP, and Austin Peay brought in UCLA tight ends coach Jeff Faris to lead the charge. Because of the change, most of the Governors' top playmakers - such as FCS All-American running back Jevon Jackson and First-Team All-UAC cornerback Jevon McIver Jr. - entered the portal. Several impact players that didn't transfer simply exhausted their eligibility.

I won't give an extensive breakdown here. Under the old guard, Austin Peay had potential to be a team that gives Louisville some first half headaches. Now, I fully expect the Cardinals to run away with this one, especially since it's a season-opener at home.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 49, Austin Peay 3.

Jacksonville State (Saturday, Sept. 7)

Last Meeting: First Meeting
All-Time Series: First Meeting

Summary: Making the jump from the ASUN, Jacksonville State had a successful first season in Conference USA last year. Led by former West Virginia and Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez - who was recently extended by JSU to 2030 - the Gamecocks went 9-4, including a 34-31 win over Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl.

It's no secret what Jacksonville State likes to do on offense: run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball some more. Last season, their 236.7 rushing yards per game ranked third in all of the FBS, behind only Liberty and Air Force. However, they lose their top three rushers from last season, including starting quarterback Zion Webb. Logan Smothers looks to take over at QB after being a 1-2 punch with Webb last season, and Anwar Lewis is primed to get the starting running back job, but it's an offense that loses a lot of production. Especially when you add in that they also graduated their top two receivers on a passing offense that already ranked 116th nationally.

The Gamecocks' defense wasn't too shabby either, coming in at No. 43 with 352.8 yards allowed per game. It was anchored by a stout run defense, giving up just 111.5 rushing yards per game, good for 15th in the FBS. But like on offense, they lose a lot of impact players. Their top five tackle for loss leaders are gone, such as All-C-USA lineman Chris Hardie, as are six of their top eight tacklers. They do bring back safety Fred Perry and All-C-USA corner Derek Carter, but it's a defense that has a lot of holes to fill.

Most fans will dismiss Jacksonville State based on name alone, but it's a team that will probably be better than some of the lower tier ACC teams Louisville will face this season. Even with that in mind, the Cardinals should be able to handle business against the Gamecocks.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Jacksonville State 10.

Georgia Tech (Saturday, Sept. 21)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 39-34 on Sept. 1, 2023 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
All-Time Series: Georgia Tech leads 2-1

Summary: Things seem to be moving in the right direction for Georgia Tech under head coach Brent Key. In his first full-time season at the helm last year, the Yellow Jackets went 7-6 for their first winning record since 2018, had two wins over then-top 25 opponents, and captured their first bowl win since 2016 with a 30-17 win over UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Georgia Tech wound up having one of the best offenses in the ACC, with their 424.6 yards per game ranking third in the conference and 34th in the FBS. Quarterback Haynes King needs to cut back on his interceptions, but he was one of the top statistical QBs in the league last season, and should only get better with GT bringing back their top two wide receivers in Eric Singleton and Malik Rutherford. Additionally, they had the No. 12 rushing offense in the FBS, headlined by 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes, who also returns.

Defense was a much, much different story last season. Their 437.1 yards allowed per game ranked dead last in the ACC, 120th nationally, and resulted in a midseason demotion of their defensive coordinator. They also lost a few of their top defenders like safety Jaylon King and linebacker Paul Moala. While they also bring back a few impact players like defensive lineman Kyle Kennard and linebacker Kyle Efford, depth is still a massive question mark here.

Louisville's defense will certainly get put to the test here with the various options that Georgia Tech has to attack them with. But given the Yellow Jackets' struggles on defense, it's hard not to favor the Cardinals in a potential shootout.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 45, Georgia Tech 31.

at Notre Dame (Saturday, Sept. 28)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 33-20 on Oct. 7, 2023 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Series tied 2-2

Summary: Year two of the Marcus Freeman era at Notre Dame was a lot more successful than the first season was. While the Fighting Irish never truly established themselves as a national title contender last year, they were able to go 10-3 including a pair of top-25 wins. They could easily head into next season as a top-10, or even top-five team.

Sam Hartman's illustrious career is over, but Notre Dame brought in Duke's Riley Leonard - one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the ACC for the last two seasons - to lead the Irish. FIU transfer Kris Mitchell also gives ND a true go-to wide receiver for a passing game that was a bit underwhelming last year, and tight end Mitchell Evans could be in for a big 2024 season. It will be difficult to replace 1,300-yard rusher Audric Estime, but Notre Dame's stout offensive line will ensure that they should still have success on the ground in some form.

As good as Notre Dame's offense was (29th in FBS), defense was their calling card, giving up just the fifth-most yards per game at 276.3. Sure, Al Golden's defense lost several of their top defenders to the NFL Draft, but the Irish have plenty of depth on that side of the line of scrimmage. All-American safety Xavier Watts is back, as is cornerback Benjamin Morrison, linebacker Jack Kiser, defensive tackle Howard Cross and a handful of others. Plus transfer additions like corner Rod Heard II and EDGE R.J. Oben will only make them deeper.

Louisville proved last season that they can go blow-for-blow with a team as talented as Notre Dame. However, the Irish could be even more deep than they were last season thanks in part to their No. 13 portal class - which is the best of any UofL opponent - and this time they have to go to South Bend. The Cardinals could certainly pull off another upset, but for now, my money's on ND.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Louisville 24.

SMU (Saturday, Oct. 5)

Last Meeting: SMU won 41-7 on Sept. 15, 1984 at Old Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: SMU leads 2-0

Summary: Stanford, Cal and SMU are joining the ACC starting next season, and the latter is by far the most well-equipped of the three to have immediate success in their new home. In year two under Rhett Lashlee and their final season in the American, the Mustangs went 11-3 for their most wins since the Pony Express days, including an AAC Championship.

SMU's offense, which ranked No. 16 nationally, is primarily led by their passing attack. Third-Team All-AAC quarterback Preston Stone - who threw for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns - is back for another season. But while the Mustangs had the No. 22 passing offense last season, they don't have a true go-to pass catcher and mainly spread the ball around. Running back Jaylan Knighton is also back after earning Second-Team All-AAC honors, but something to monitor here is that SMU lost three starters on the offensive line.

On the other side of the line of scrimmage, SMU brings back a lot of key players from last season. In fact, they return eight of their top nine tacklers - including their team leader in sacks and tackles for loss in defensive end Elijah Roberts - four of their seven All-AAC defenders and eight of their top 11 defenders per PFF (min. 100 snaps). Oh, and this was a unit that was the No. 12 defense in the FBS at just 304.1 yards allowed per game.

Of course, playing teams in the American is vastly different than playing teams in the ACC, but SMU should be a team that is ready to compete next season. If Louisville isn't careful, this is easily a game they could lose. But with the Cardinals being at home and having more collective power five (four?) experience and success (SMU was 0-3 vs. P5 last season), they get the nod - but it could be closer than most expect.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 34, SMU 24

at Virginia (Saturday, Oct. 12)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 31-24 on Nov. 11, 2023 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 7-5

Summary: There's a case to be made that Virginia could be the worst team in the ACC heading into next season. The Cavaliers went just 3-9 last season, with one of those wins coming against an FCS opponent. While he's just two seasons in, head coach Tony Elliott could end up on the hot seat by year's end.

There is *some* potential on offense. Tony Muskett is likely the starting quarterback, but Anthony Colandrea dazzled at times as a true freshman. First-Team All-ACC wide receiver Malik Washington is now in the NFL, but Malachi Fields returns, and transfer Chris Tyree should help whichever quarterback starts. The issue with this offense is that their rushing game is a near non-factor and their offensive line was one of the worst in the FBS last season (128th in tackles for loss allowed), resulting in them averaging only 368.8 yards per game in 2023 (76th in FBS).

Where Virginia really struggled was on defense, giving up 409.2 yards (101st in FBS) and 33.8 points (116th in FBS) per game. Teams regularly ran roughshod over the Cavs, giving up 184.5 rushing yards per game (114th in FBS). While UVA does bring back their top three tacklers from last season, including First-Team All-ACC safety Jonas Sanker, this is still a unit that has a lot of issues.

Things were a little too close for comfort in the matchup between these two last season, and the series does head to Charlottesville this time. That all being said, it's too hard to ignore how bad Virginia was last season despite Louisville's best efforts to give the game away, and they don't seem to be getting better.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 45, Virginia 21.

Miami (Saturday, Oct. 19)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 38-31 on Nov. 18, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
All-Time Series: Miami leads 11-4-1

Summary: Death. Texas. Miami generating an insane, and typically unwarranted, amount of preseason hype. But despite the Canes going 7-6 last season in year two under Mario Cristobal, the pure talent level heading into next season warrants Miami being thrown into discussions as a contender in the ACC.

Offensively, it all starts with quarterback Cam Ward. The transfer from Washington State was one of the top players to hit the portal, and it gives Miami a massive boost at the position. Additionally, the Canes bring back their top two receivers in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, and added one of the top portal wideouts in Houston's Sam Brown. Their ground game wasn't anything super spectacular last year, but adding Oregon State's Damien Martinez fixes that immediately, and their offensive line is one of the best in the ACC. Put it all together, and an offense that already averaged 431.2 yards per game (31st in FBS) should get much better.

There is some noteworthy turnover on defense, like the fact that they lose their four starters in the secondary, but there is still talent a-plenty here. Between star freshman Rueben Bain, and transfers Simeon Barrow Jr. and Elijah Alston, the Canes could have one of the nastiest defensive lines in the ACC. Plus Second-Team All-ACC linebacker Francisco Mauigoa, the team leader in sacks and tackles for loss, will make that Miami front seven that much more deadly. If there is a weakness, it's on the back end, as there could be some growing pains considering how much production they lost.

I'm not usually one to buy into the Miami hype train, especially considering that Cristobal has proven to be a masterful recruiter but subpar coach. However, this Canes squad is loaded, particularly on offense. I do think Louisville can win this, but for now, I think this is where they suffer their first ACC loss of the season.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Miami 38, Louisville 35.

at Boston College (Friday, Oct. 25)

Last Meeting: Louisville won 56-28 on Sept. 23, 2023 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Louisville leads 9-7

Summary: It's been a whirlwind past few months for Boston College. They go 7-6 to not only get back to a bowl, but earn their first bowl win since 2016 with a 23-14 win over SMU in the Fenway Bowl. Head coach Jeff Hafley then packs his bags for the NFL, but the Eagles struck gold and bring in Bill O'Brien.

Thomas Castellanos is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the ACC. He's a dynamic dual threat weapon who's a threat to score at any given time, but he does need to cut back on his interceptions. The Eagles do bring back their top wide receiver in Lewis Bond, and the transfer additions of Jerand Bradley and Jayden McGowan should help. Kye Robichaux is also an underrated running back, and he and Castellanos helped BC average 198.8 rushing yards per game (13th in FBS).

Defense was behind the offense last season for Boston College, giving up 385.1 yards (70th) and 28.3 points (83rd in FBS) per game. The Eagles also lose their top two defenders in linebacker Vinny DePalma and corner Elijah Jones. Their tackles for loss leader in defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku is comng back, as are 10 of their top 12 tacklers, but this was a unit that already struggled to generate pressure up front (127th in sacks, 130th in TFLs) and contain the run (118th in rushing defense).

Boston College has a chance to put up points against Louisville, as they saw in the latter stages of their matchup last year. However, the Eagles will more than likely give up their fair share of points as well, as the Cardinals also saw. Louisville should cover fairly easily here.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 38, Boston College 21.

at Clemson (Saturday, Nov. 2)

Last Meeting: Clemson won 31-16 on Nov. 12, 2022 at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C
All-Time Series: Clemson leads 8-0

Summary: Clemson is still a very talented team, but it seems that their national title contender days under Dabo Swinney are past them. They went 9-4 for their first single-digit win season since 2010, and fell out of the AP Poll for the first time since 2014.

Bringing over Broyles Award winner Garrett Riley as the Tigers' offensive coordinator was seen as a fantastic move, but their offense last season was very underwhelming to say the least. Clemson finished with the No. 50 offense in the FBS, and their 5.25 yards per play was 98th. Quarterback Cade Klubnik and running back Phil Mafah are back, but the Tigers don't have a noteworthy option in the passing game outside of Tyler Brown, and their offensive line struggled at times. They could rely heavily on top-50 freshman wideouts T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco next season.

Clemson has been known for their defense under Swinney, and last season was no exception, as they allowed just 287.8 yards per game 8th in FBS, 1st in ACC). The NFL Draft hit them hard, losing all five of their All-ACC Team players to the league, such as guys like Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter. However, they still have dudes on that side of the line. Defensive end T.J. Parker and safety R.J. Mickens headline a defense that, while has some roles that need filling, is loaded with four- and five-star talent that can step up.

Make no mistake, taking down Clemson - especially at Death Valley - will be a difficult endeavor. But with the Tigers' questions on offense, the amount of changeover on defense, and Swinney's continued stubbornness to address team needs via the portal, Louisville has their best chance to take down Clemson in a while. I think they capitalize.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 24, Clemson 21.

at Stanford (Saturday, Nov. 16)

Last Meeting: First Meeting
All-Time Series: First Meeting

Summary: While SMU is the ACC newcomer most likely to have immediate success, Stanford is on the compete opposite of the spectrum. In year one under head coach Troy Taylor, the Cardinal were one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They went just 3-9, and their 63.2 PFF rating was dead last in the Power Five and good for fourth-worst overall.

If Stanford has any strengths, it's over on the offensive side of the ball. While it's a unit that was just 89th nationally after averaging 351.6 yards per game, their passing attack isn't awful. Elic Ayomanor is a 1,000-yard receiver, and quarterback Ashton Daniels had a moderate amount of success in his first year as a starter. However, that's all the Cardinal really have, as both their ground game and offensive line are anemic to say the least.

The heart of all of Stanford's issues last season were on defense. Their 461.7 yards and 37.2 points allowed per game were both second-to-last in all of FBS football, while their 298.0 passing yards allowed were dead last. The Cardinal do have continuity on that side of the ball, bringing back 11 of their top 13 tacklers from last season, but how much does that truly mean when things were so bad?

Louisville heads out west to face Stanford for their first trip out west under the new ACC scheduling model. But it doesn't matter where this game is going to be played, the Cards *should* roll by multiple scores.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 52, Stanford 17.

Pitt (Saturday, Nov. 23)

Last Meeting: Pitt won 38-21 on Oct. 14, 2023 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa.
All-Time Series: Pitt leads 11-9

Summary: Things aren't looking good for Pat Narduzzi right now over at Pitt. Just two seasons removed from winning the ACC Championship, the Panthers went just 3-9 with only two wins over P5 competition. The state of the program has even been cited as a reason for some portal defections.

Pitt struggled to get anything going on offense last season, with their 317.9 yards and 20.2 points per game both ranking dead last in the ACC plus 114th in the FBS. Konata Mumpfield is an underrated wideout in the ACC, but the rest of his supporting cast leaves some to be desired, not to mention that the Panthers are having to go to Nate Yarnall at quarterback after Christian Veilleux's surprise entry. Rodney Hammond is a good ACC running back, but Pitt's rushing efforts overall were the worst in the league. We'll see if new OC Kade Bell can revitalize this unit.

Their defense got a bit of a bad rap because of how inefficient the offense was, but Pitt still wound up surrendering 361.6 yards (49th in FBS) and 27.3 points (73rd in FBS) per game. Their top two tacklers in safety duo Donovan McMillon and Javon McIntyre are back, but their starting corners in Marquis Williams and M.J. Devonshire are both gone. Additionally, their TFL leaders in edge rusher Dayon Hayes and linebacker Soloman DeShields both departed by way of the portal. The Panthers still have talent on defense, but the production dip will be sorely missed.

The returners from last year's Louisville team will be out for blood after Pitt broke their undefeated run to the 2023 season. Add in the fact that it's played at home and that the Panthers will likely struggle to move the ball, and it's hard not to like the Cardinals here.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Louisville 35, Pitt 20.

at Kentucky (Saturday, Nov. 30)

Last Meeting: Kentucky won 38-31 on Nov. 25, 2023 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
All-Time Series: Kentucky leads 20-15

Summary: Kentucky got off to a hot start to their 2023 campaign, but then everything came mostly undonw in the back half of the season. The Wildcats opened up at 5-0 including a win over then-No. 22 Florida, but dropped six of their last eight games, including the Gator Bowl to Clemson.

Part of Kentucky's second half flameout was because of an offense to struggled to move the ball at times, especially with the inconsistencies of quarterback Devin Leary. But between former five-star Brock Vandagriff and former Rutgers starter Gavin Wimsatt, the quarterback position should look a little more consistent. It also helps to have a dangerous duo at wide receiver in Dane Key and Barion Brown. They'll have to make up from a ground game that will likely be less than spectacular, losing Second-Team All-SEC back Ray Davis to a rushing attack that already ranked 95th nationally (127.8 rushing yards per game).

Like they usually are, Kentucky should be a team led by their defense. They had the No. 43 defense last season at 353.5 yards allowed per game, and there is a lot of talent and continuity with this group. The Wildcats are bringing back 15 of their top 18 tacklers, including Second-Team All-SEC corner Maxwell Hairston, leading tackler linebacker D'Eryk Jackson, plus defensive tackle and likely first round 2025 NFL Draft pick Deone Walker.

On a neutral field, on paper, Louisville would likely be a slight favorite over Kentucky. But it's at Lexington, and Mark Stoops' teams have always gotten up for this game no matter what their record is. As much as I want to pick the Cardinals, until proven otherwise and the Governor's Cup losing streak is snapped, I'm picking the Wildcats.

Way-Too-Early Prediction: Kentucky 28, Louisville 24.

Way-Too-Early Season Projection: 9-3 (7-1 ACC)

(Photo of Jeff Brohm: Scott Utterback - Courier Journal / USA)

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