Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. SMU

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs for their Wednesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Feb 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'vonne Hadley (1) looks to move the ball past SMU Mustangs forward Corey Washington (3) during the second half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Feb 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'vonne Hadley (1) looks to move the ball past SMU Mustangs forward Corey Washington (3) during the second half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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Louisville CardinalsSMU Mustangs

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (22-9, 11-7 ACC) is set to face SMU (20-12. 8-10 ACC) on Wednesday, Mar. 11 at 2:30 p.m. EST at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. in the ACC Tournament second round. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Mustangs:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

SMU

Louisville

AP/USAT

NR/NR

24th/24th

SOS

48th

45th

SOR

47th

25th

NET

39th

13th

WAB

48th

21st

RPI

41st

27th

BPI

43rd

11th

KenPom

42nd

14th

Torvik

42nd

14th

EvanMiya

43rd

18th

Team Leaders

SMU

Louisville

Points

Boopie Miller (19.5)

Ryan Conwell (18.7)

Rebounds

Samet Yigitoglu (7.9)

Sananda Fru (6.2)

Assists

Boopie Miller (6.5)

Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)

Steals

B.J. Edwards (2.3)

Mikel Brown Jr. (1.2)

Blocks

Samet Yigitoglu (1.3)

Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

SMU

Louisville

Points Per Game

85.0

85.9

Field Goal %

49.2

47.2

FGM/FGA Per Game

31.0/63.0

29.0/61.5

Three Point %

37.6

36.3

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

8.4/22.4

11.9/32.7

Free Throw %

74.3

77.1

FTM/FTA Per Game

14.7/19.7

15.9/20.6

Rebounding

SMU

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

37.8

38.7

Off. Reb. Per Game

12.3

11.5

Def. Reb. Per Game

25.5

27.3

Rebound Margin

3.7

4.1

Defense

SMU

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

78.1

72.5

Opp. FG%

43.5

42.2

Opp. 3PT%

34.2

32.6

Steals Per Game

7.2

7.0

Blocks Per Game

3.6

3.3

Turnovers Forced Per Game

12.3

11.9

Ball Handling

SMU

Louisville

Assists Per Game

17.2

17.4

Turnovers Per Game

11.2

11.6

Turnover Margin

1.1

0.3

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.53

1.50

Predictions

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 70 percent chance to take down the Mustangs, with a projected final score of 87-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.14 (14th overall), whereas SMU has an adjusted efficiency margin of +18.10 (42nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 72 percent chance to take down the Ponies, with a projected final score of 88-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9386 (14th overall), whereas SMU has a "Barthag" of .8551 (42nd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 89, SMU 85.

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(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jerome Miron - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic