Miami vs Duke: Preview and Prediction

After a close call against Wake Forest, Miami now has to play a red hot Duke team that dismantled Pittsburgh 96-69.

The Atlantic Coast Basketball Tournament has been great so far. Close games with great players coming up big. Now with Miami and Duke each advancing to the semifinals to play one another, it’s a tremendous match up after the two teams split the regular season meetings with one win each.

Today's Contest

Game Time: 7 p.m.

Television: ESPN2

SI Sportsbook Betting Odds

Duke -3 over Miami

Over/Under: 145

Money Line: Duke (-150), Miami (+115)

Close Games Versus Offensive Explosions

The Hurricanes have played in three consecutive one-basket games: Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest. Duke, meanwhile, has caught fire.

The Blue Devils have won seven in a row, with four of them being blowouts versus ACC competition. Here are today’s expected starting lineups.

Miami Hurricanes

G

Nijel Pack

, 6-0, 185, 13.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg

G

Isaiah Wong

, 6-4, 185, 16.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.5 apg

G

Wooga Poplar

, 6-5, 190, 8.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.4 apg

G

Jordan Miller

, 6-7, 195, 15.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.7 apg

F

Norchad Omier

, 6-7, 250, 14.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.3 apg

Duke Blue Devils

G

Jeremy Roach

, 6-2, 180, 13.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.3 apg

G

Tyrese Proctor

, 6-5, 175, 9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.2 apg

F

Mark Mitchell

, 6-8, 220, 9.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.2 apg

F

Kyle Filipowski

, 7-0, 230, 15.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.5 apg

C

Dereck Lively

, 7-1, 230, 5.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.0 apg

Prime Matchup to Consider

Duke is one of the biggest teams in major college basketball, while Miami would be one of the smallest. Well, at least in terms of height that’s how they matchup.

Kyle Filipowski will be going against Jordan Miller. Both of the future NBA players have their strengths with how well they shoot the basketball, as well as being impactful rebounders, passers and defenders. That stated, they do things differently.

Filipowski hit four 3-point shots versus Pittsburgh yesterday. Miami, and specifically Miller, cannot leave him alone. Further, Miller will not be able to help off of Filipowski like he might with several other players he’s guarded this season. Keep an eye on that.

Miami has relied on playing man defense with weak side help this season. Against Duke – especially when Filipowski stays behind the 3-point arc – Miami must find a way to not allow Duke players to penetrate into the lane for shots or kickouts to the freshman power forward, and do so without help from Miller.

He's helped create many turnovers this season by coming off his man and helping out. Guarding Miller will be no easy task for Filipowski either.

Miller is long, very athletic, and a crafty senior that has shown how well he understands where to be on the court. Look for him to attack his counterpart off the bounce and try to get into the lane and create shot opportunities for himself, as well as Miami’s bevy of shooters. That may also get Filipowski into foul trouble.

Between Miller and Filipowski, the player that comes up with the better all-around performance today will quite possibly lead his squad to a win.

Size Matters?

Miami has been used to being the smaller team, but going against two players that have been listed at 7-foot or taller will not be an easy task for Norchad Omier and any Miami player that plays in the paint. That’s especially true now that Duke has found its perimeter offensive game.

Duke hit 11 3-point shots versus Pittsburgh. Of all the statistics from today’s contest, how well the Blue Devils knock down 3-point shots could end up being the most important.

Miami may not win a true inside battle in terms of getting off shots against two players with shot blocking ability, but the Hurricanes also need to win the clash behind the arc to offset that prior point.

That’s a key cog to Miami’s success. The Canes are by far the more experienced team, and they must show the ability to use their knowledge to find open looks against a team that holds a definitive height advantage. Plus, Miami has more sheer foot speed in the front court. That should help the Canes get to more loose balls.

They have done that well this season. Today’s game needs to be a continuation of that trend for Miami.

Fast Start

With Duke riding high after dismantling Pittsburgh, Miami needs to jump out early. That’s the final point here. Allowing the young and talented Blue Devils to gain a lead and momentum early could be difficult to overcome. That stated, Duke is one of the hottest teams in America, and will come out victorious in a close contest.

Duke 76 Miami 73

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