Analysts Make Pick Between No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 3 Duke in Battle of Blue Bloods

This will be a highly watched game.
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There's a top-five clash in the nation's capital on Saturday evening when the top-ranked Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils.

RELATED: How to Watch, Score Prediction for No. 1 Michigan Basketball vs. No. 3 Duke

The Wolverines enter the game coming off of a big-time win at Purdue this week. Michigan's sitting at 25-1 on the season with its lone loss coming against Wisconsin earlier this year. As for Duke, the Blue Devils have just two losses and Duke is hoping to show it deserves the top-ranked spot.

Ahead of the game, CBS Sports' roundtable picked the winner. It's clear who they think will win the game.

CBS Sports Roundtable

  • Gary Parrish - Michigan
  • Matt Norlander - Michigan
  • Kyle Boone - Michigan
  • David Cobb - Michigan
  • Isaac Trotter - Michigan
  • Cameron Salerno - Duke

"A take I believe in that could very well age poorly: This Michigan line is too low. I'd have guessed this would be Michigan -6 or -7. It leads college hoops in scoring margin, has the No. 1 defense in adjusted efficiency at KenPom and is, at least on paper, terrificly equipped to match what Duke does best. I'm laying the points with the Wolverines."

ESPN's matchup predictor

While Michigan is a small favorite in this game and it's clear who the 'experts' think will win the game — it's not that simple using the advanced analytics.

ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Blue Devils a slight edge. According to the computer, Duke has a 51.3% chance of beating Michigan on Saturday.

Purdue Boilermakers guard C.j Cox (0) defends against Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg.
Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

When you look a little closer into the data, Duke is ranked No. 1 in the BPI [Basketball Power Index] department — more advanced analytics. Michigan ranks slightly behind the Blue Devils.

While Duke might be ahead of Michigan in BPI, the Wolverines' resume is clearly better. Michigan ranks No. 1 in ESPN's Stength of Record. The Wolverines have the No. 2 strength of schedule and Duke has the No. 26 SOS this season.

Key to the game

Our very own Seth Berry came out with 'three keys' to a Michigan win over Duke and it all starts with making life difficult on Cameron Boozer.

"....Yaxel Lendeborg is an elite defender and stands as the same size as Boozer while only giving up 10 pounds, but considering Boozer's diverse offensive game and overall skill, it will be Lendeborg's most difficult challenge to date.

"Lendeborg staying out of foul trouble will be key as the Wolverines don't really have anyone else to match up to Boozer from a size and quickness standpoint...."

Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) brings the ball around Syracuse Orange forward William Kyle.
Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

How to watch

  • Day: Saturday, Feb. 21
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Capital One Arena (Washington, DC)
  • Network: ESPN
  • On the call: Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas
  • Radio: Michigan Sports Network from LEARFIELD

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent began writing and covering Michigan athletics back in 2020. He became a credentialed member of the media in 2021. Trent began writing with Sports Illustrated in 2023 and became the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines On SI during the 2025 football season. Trent also serves as the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI. His other bylines have appeared on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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