Wolverine Digest

Bracketology Update for Michigan After Loss to Duke

Where are the Wolverines projected in the NCAA Tournament after losing to the Blue Devils?
Seth Berry|
Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts to a call during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts to a call during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

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Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan Wolverines lost its second game of the season this past weekend after falling to the Duke Blue Devils by a score of 68-63 in Washington, DC.

While Dusty May's team still sit in a prime position to earn a No. 1 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament, whether the Wolverines can attain the top overall seed is in question after the close loss to Duke.

Here is where Michigan stands in ESPN and CBS Sports' versions of "bracketology."

ESPN

Going into last Saturday's clash against Duke, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projected Michigan as the top overall seed in the tournament.

After the defeat, Lunardi has now placed Duke over Michigan after the head-to-head victory for the Blue Devils.

Lunardi, in his latest update, has slotted Michigan as the No. 2 overall seed to play in the Midwest region.

The Wolverines still have some tough games to play down the stretch, as does Duke, but the Blue Devils get both Virginia and North Carolina at home. Barring Duke slipping up and Michigan winning out, it's hard to imagine the Wolverines jumping Duke for that top spot at this point without taking the head-to-head matchup.

CBS Sports

CBS Sports' bracket projection, as of Sunday morning, also has Michigan as a No. 1 seed in the Midwest.

The model, which lays out regions in their entirety, projects Houston as the No. 2 seed in the Wolverines' region, with Florida being the No. 3 seed and Virginia being the four seed.

Michigan's chances at a No. 1 seed

At Team Rankings, the site publishes teams' projected win/loss record, along with chances of receiving an NCAA Tournament bid, chances of receiving an automatic bid, and chances of getting a No. 1 seed.

The projections, based on the Team Rankings website, are based off thousands of computer simulations run each day during the college basketball season.

Yaxel Lendebor
Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard C.j Cox (0) defends against Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) during the second half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

As it stands, the Wolverines have an 96% chance of earning a No. 1 seed, a 50% chance at an automatic bid (winning the Big 10 Tournament), a 100% chance of an NCAA Tournament bid, and are projected to finish with a 28-3 overall record.

Michigan has earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on three occasions, including in 1985, 1993 and 2021.

The Wolverines will next take the floor on Tuesday night against Minnesota for an 8:30 p.m. EST tip-off at the Crisler Center.

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Seth Berry
SETH BERRY

Seth began writing on Michigan athletics in 2015 and has remained in the U-M media space ever since, which includes stops at Maize N Brew and Rivals before coming onto Michigan On SI in June of 2025. Seth has covered various angles of Michigan football and basketball, including recruiting, overall team coverage and feature/analysis stories relating to the Wolverines. His passion for Michigan sports and desire to tell stories led him to the sports journalism world. He is a 2020 graduate of Western Michigan University and is the former sports editor of the Western Herald, WMU's student newspaper.

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