Best Bet to Make in the Game Between the Michigan Wolverines and UTEP Miners

Michigan is coming off their big win over the Oklahoma Sooners last Saturday and will welcome the UTEP Miners to the Big House in week three. UTEP is 1-1 so far on the season with a win over TX Southern last week, and they actually played Oklahoma in week 1, losing by a score of 51-0.

Michigan and UTEP obviously have the common opponent of the Oklahoma Sooners to help get a feel for how this game between them should go, but common opponents aren't everything when it comes to breaking down matchups. Let's dive more into both teams as we analyze what the power ratings say about this matchup below.

UTEP Miners

For the power ratings of each team I've been using the ESPN FPI. According to that FPI, UTEP checks in at 129th in the country with a power rating of -17.2. Clearly the FPI does not think UTEP is a good football team. According to that power rating, against the exactly average college football team(James Madison for reference is a 0.1), UTEP would be a 17 point underdog on a neutral field.

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan on the other hand checks in at 22nd nationally in the ESPN FPI, with a power rating of 14.4. That means against the exactly average college football team (James Madison - 0.1), they'd be favored by 14.4 on a neutral field. The Wolverines moved back up some from last week's power rating of an 11.8 after they beat the Sooners.

Spread Analysis

To get the projected neutral field spread between these teams you simply add Michigan's FPI of 14.4 to UTEP's of 17.2, and you come up with 31.6. Now for most college football home games, home field advantage is worth between 0-5 points, and for this game I'd make it +3 for the Wolverines. Add that to the 31.6, and then you end up with 34.6 projected margin in favor of Michigan.

Best Bet

Given that the current spread for this game is at a -34.5 in favor of the Wolverines on DraftKings Sportsbook, the FPI is showing a razor thin advantage on the Michigan side of the 34.6. So far in best bet's for this year, the power ratings would be 2-0, while I am merely 1-1 because I went against the model last week.

For this game I'm going to technically go against the model once again and go with UTEP +34.5 for my best bet in this game. Oklahoma did beat them 51-0 and Michigan beat Oklahoma, so most people would assume Michigan will beat UTEP by a score similar to 51-0.

I just don't believe Michigan will score that many points in this game given the current state of their offense. The running game hasn't gotten going yet and nether has the passing game so I have a hard time seeing Michigan really pile it on points wise in this game. I do believe the defense is top notch, but I think the score ends up being something similar to a 38-7 Michigan win and for that reason I would take UTEP +34.5 for the best bet in this game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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