Best Bet to Make in the Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Opener Against the Iowa Hawkeyes

Michigan is coming off a 52-17 blowout win against the UTEP Miners. Iowa on the other hand is also coming off a blowout win by score of 55-0 over Northern Iowa. Both teams are 3-0, with Michigan beating Western Michigan, Oklahoma, and UTEP. Iowa has beaten Northern IL, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa.

Michigan has played by far the best team so far between the non-conference opponents in the Oklahoma Sooners, and comes into this game as a -5.5 point home favorite according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. Let's dive into what the power ratings say about each team below before we make a best bet selection on this ranked matchup.

ESPN's FPI

To get the power rating for each team, I've been using ESPN's FPI. In that metric, Iowa ranks 28th nationally with a power rating of 12.1. That means that on a neutral field when matched up with the perfectly average team (Western Michigan is a 0.0 funny enough), they'd be favored by 12.1 points.

Michigan is ranked 20th nationally in the FPI with a power rating of 14.9. That's up slightly from what it was last week when they were a 14.4. So if Michigan and Western Michigan (the perfectly average college football team according to FPI) were to meet up again next week on a neutral field the Wolverines would be roughly a 14 point favorite over the Broncos.

Spread Analysis

To get the projected spread for this game using ESPN's FPI, you simply subtract Iowa's power rating of 12.1 from Michigan's power rating of 14.9. That gives you a 2.8 point advantage in favor of the Wolverines on a neutral field. With this game being at the Big House, I'd factor in roughly 3 points of a home field advantage as well. That puts the projected spread at -5.8 for this game with Michigan being the favorite.

Iowa Hawkeyes running back Tyler Goodson against the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Conference championship game | USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet

Given that the current spread is -5.5, the FPI is showing slight value on Michigan's side. Not a lot mind you at just a 0.3 difference between the projected spread using FPI and the actual spread, but still a slight value. For this reason I'm going to agree with the FPI and suggest taking the Wolverines for the best bet in this game. So far the model is 3-0 on the season and I'm going to keep favoring that until it's wrong.

I believe Iowa's defense is good, but they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of offenses through three games. The same can be said with their offense. Against what I think is a bottom half of the Big 12 type team in Iowa State, they only scored 16 points and had just 284 yards of total offense. Michigan's defense should give them a lot of issues offensively, and I think Michigan will be able to have a good enough offensive performance to cover this spread here at home.

Give me the Wolverines to win 20-13, and I'll make Michigan -5.5 the best bet in this game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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