Best Bet to Make in the Michigan Wolverines First Road Game Against the Minnesota Golden Gophers

Michigan is coming off a heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Iowa Hawkeyes. They are 3-1 with a win over Oklahoma though, and there's plenty of season ahead for the Wolverines to still accomplish all of their goals.

Minnesota is also 3-1, albeit in less impressive fashion. Mississippi State came up to play Minnesota and crushed them, leaving with a 38-13 win in week two. Minnesota did bounce back though in week four as they beat Washington on the road 27-24.

It'll be a very interesting game to watch because we'll find out how good this Minnesota team is, and if Michigan can bounce back from a tough loss or not. Let's dive into the best bet for this game below.

ESPN's FPI

To get the power rating for each team, I've been using ESPN's FPI. In that metric, Minnesota ranks surprisingly low at 61st nationally with a power rating of 1.8. That means that on a neutral field when matched up with the perfectly average team (Memphis is a 0.0 power rating for example), the Golden Gophers would be favored by just 1.8 points.

Michigan on the other hand is ranked 23rd nationally in the FPI with a power rating of 13.3. That's down slightly from what it was last week when they were a 14.9, but still quite a bit higher than Minnesota shows right now. So if Michigan and Memphis (the perfectly average college football team according to FPI) were to meet up next week on a neutral field the Wolverines would be roughly a 13.3 point favorite over the Tigers.

Michigan's Josiah Stewart celebrates after sacking Minnesota Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis | AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Spread Analysis

To get the projected spread for this game using ESPN's FPI, you subtract Minnesota's power rating of 1.8 from Michigan's power rating of 13.3. That gives you a 11.5 point advantage in favor of the Wolverines on a neutral field. With this game being on the road, I'd factor in roughly 2 points of a home field advantage for the Golden Gophers. Taking all of that into account, it pumps out a projected spread of -9.5 in favor of Michigan despite being on the road at Minnesota.

Michigan running back Kalel Mullings pulls away from Minnesota Golden defensive back Coleman Bryson | AP / Carlos Osorio

Best Bet

The current spread on DraftKings Sportsbook shows Michigan -5.5, so with the FPI projected spread of -9.5 it's showing some good value on Michigan's side. For my best bet in this game I'm going to side with the model (that is 3-1 on the season so far) once again and take Michigan -5.5 to cover this one.

I think Michigan got dinged a little too much for their loss last week, and I also think Minnesota may be getting too much credit for beating Washington. Washington hasn't looked good at all yet this season, so in my personal opinion that win over them doesn't move me much. The game against Mississippi State on the other hand, did move me. They got smoked in their own building by a good but not amazing Mississippi State team, and I wonder if Michigan will have an easier time in this game than people might expect.

Give me the Wolverines to win this game 27-17 on the road over Minnesota and cover that -5.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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