Breaking down Michigan football's path to the Big Ten title game

No. 18 Michigan football is 7-2 and has a clear opportunity in front of them: If the Wolverines win out, they are likely to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff with a potential 10-2 record that would include a win over No. 1 Ohio State.

However, barring a very unlikely collapse from Indiana down the stretch, it's incredibly likely that the second place Big Ten team would come down to a tiebreaker scenario to determine which Big Ten team will have the opportunity to play the Hoosiers in Indianapolis in the Big Ten championship game if the Wolverines can win out from this point forward.

Let's break down the scenario for Michigan of how it would be possible for Sherrone Moore's team to reach the Big Ten title game.

Nov 1, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Ernest Hausmann (15) reacts after he makes a play on defense against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Michigan's path to conference title game

To have a chance to reach the Big Ten title game, the Wolverines need to control what they can control—which would be to win their final three games at Northwestern, at Maryland and at home against the Buckeyes. But even if Michigan were able to do that, as outlined in an article from CBS Sports, Michigan still would not control its own destiny.

Since the Wolverines lost to USC, who also hold a 5-1 conference record, the Wolverines must get another loss from Lincoln Riley's team since the Trojans hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Maize and Blue.

But, on the bright side for Michigan, USC plays at Oregon on Nov. 22, and if the Trojans lose that game and the Wolverines win out, Michigan then goes to Indy, right? Not necessarily.

That's because in the scenario Michigan and Oregon win out, that would create a three-way tie for second place between the Wolverines, Buckeyes and Ducks. In that scenario, Michigan would obviously get the edge over Ohio State with the head-to-head victory, but would lose out to Oregon because Michigan's lone loss—USC, would be a win for the Ducks.

Therefore, Michigan, in addition, needs Oregon to lose to either Minnesota or Washington, or find themselves in a situation where they end up a full game ahead of both USC and Oregon to avoid losing any tiebreakers to those two teams.

Michigan edge Derrick Moore (8) celebrates a sack against Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If Michigan wins out, will getting to Indy matter?

While winning a Big Ten championship is a tremendous accomplishment, with playoff expansion, I'm not sure if it holds the same weight as it once did.

If the Wolverines can end up 10-2 with their fifth-straight win over the Buckeyes, I am sure they would gladly take that and a trip to the College Football Playoff with the additional week off in avoiding the Big Ten title game altogether.

The only scenario where a trip to Indy would pay off for Michigan is if Moore's team finished 10-2 and they were still being put on the "bubble" from the selection committee due to a jumble of teams being considered at the end of the season for limited spots.

In that case, especially if there is an unexpected team that ends up winning its conference title game and receives an automatic bid even if ranked outside the top 12, that will "shrink" the bubble.

If Michigan does get the chance to go to the conference title game, it could guarantee a spot in the CFP with a victory. At the same time, it begs the question as to whether the committee would punish the Wolverines for a potential loss to the Hoosiers, as they would then be a 10-3 team instead of 10-2.

At the end of the day, if Michigan does finish the regular season 10-2, the ball still won't be in its court, so the cards are going to fall wherever they end up.

Michigan running back Jordan Marshall (23) runs against Purdue defensive back Tahj Ra-El (21) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, November 1, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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