National Experts Project Michigan Football vs. Indiana Outcome

Is Indiana on upset alert this weekend?

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After winning against Penn State last weekend, the Wolverines are hoping to make it two in a row. And while Michigan has been challenged this season, this will be the Wolverines' biggest challenge of the year.

Michigan welcomes Indiana into the Big House and the Hoosiers are coming in angry. Last weekend, the Hoosiers lost to Ohio State by a few blades of grass after Nick Marsh appeared to catch the potential game-winning touchdown, but he misjudged his footing. It was Indiana's first loss since the 2024 season. On another note, Curt Cignetti hasn't lost two in a row since 2022, when he was at James Madison.

If Michigan is going to win this game, a lot will need to go in its favor. In 2026, a lot has gone against the Wolverines, but maybe a quarterback change can do the trick. Tommy Carr is expected to make the first start of his short career. He played well enough in the second half of last weekend to earn the start, but going up against the Indiana defense will be no easy task.

Here's what some national experts are saying about the game.

CBS Sports puts Indiana on upset alert

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While Brad Crawford didn't give a score prediction, he placed Indiana on upset watch this weekend. Crawford placed five teams on upset alert, and after the Hoosiers had close calls against both Northwestern and Nebraska this season, on top of losing to Ohio State, Crawford sees a path to Michigan taking down the Hoosiers.

"At what point will Michigan's offense put together a full game? Is that even possible for the Wolverines? Saturday's chore comes in the form of Indiana, an elite team with a defense aiming to deny Michigan any semblance of confidence on that side of the field. Tommy Carr is the better option at quarterback,  for Bryant Haines and the Hoosiers' defensive staff," Crawford wrote.

FOX Sports takes Michigan with the points

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Michigan isn't expected to win this game, and the Wolverines are a seven-point underdog against Indiana. But Geoff Schwartz is taking the Wolverines with the points in this game. He believes Michigan's defense is among the best in the nation, and he saw what the Buckeyes did against Indiana.

Obviously, like everyone else, it's the Wolverines' offense that scares Schwartz in this game. But he feels confident in Michigan's defense making enough stops to keep this game close.

"Mistakes, turnovers and a receiver just not getting his foot inbounds on the final offensive play of the game cost IU, but the Hoosiers also haven't been able to run the ball this season, which was far from the case last year. It was just 2.8 yards per attempt for their running backs against Ohio State and 2.4 against Nebraska the week before. 

"In addition, Josh Hoover isn’t Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, which we already knew. Hoover can’t make things right like Mendoza could. 

"The Michigan defense is first in yards per play, even though the Wolverines haven't played anyone like Indiana. Still, Michigan’s pass rush is good, and I’d imagine it will try to pressure Hoover into mistakes. It’s also Indiana’s third straight week of playing a physical defense," Schwartz wrote.

Josh Pate puts Indiana on upset alert

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Once again, someone thinks Michigan's defense will be the factor in this game. Josh Pate didn't say who he thought would win the game outright, but he did place the Hoosiers on his upset alert concern meter with a '7' grade.

He compared Tommy Carr to Dylan Raiola of Oregon, however. It wasn't that long ago that Raiola came into the game against USC and shined, but he was terrible in a start against UCLA. Carr is set to make his first start against Indiana after playing well in relief of Bryce Underwood last week.

But, if Michigan can force a few turnovers in this game, the Wolverines could keep it close.

"Now I'm a little scarred, although this is totally apples to oranges, but I'm going to make the comparison anyway. Tommy Carr entered the game last week, and they ended up beating Penn State, and everyone feels good, rah, rah, rah. I am old enough to remember two weeks ago or three weeks ago, whatever it was at this point, when Dylan Raiola came off the bench, and he saved Oregon's season and everything looked great. And then went against USC. And then what did we have? We had a whole week, two weeks in that case of Dylan Raiola, knowing he was going to get the start. And it proceeded to be the worst quarterback, four quarters of football we've ever seen in the modern era.

"Now I don't think Tommy Carr is going to look that bad, but I'm not automatically throwing a ton of confidence behind the change at quarterback being made and all of a sudden the offense is going to take off. But I'm still putting a seven on the upset alert concern meter here because Indiana's profile this year is not what it was last year in the sense that they're not blowing folks out....

"Michigan beat Penn State because they benefited from turnovers. They forced them. They benefited from taking the ball away. Indiana hasn't really done that a whole lot. Famously, Josh Hoover is yet to throw an interception."

ESPN advanced analytics has the Hoosiers winning

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The numbers are the numbers and the advanced analytics have the Hoosiers winning anywhere from eight points to 13. Billy Connelly from ESPN wrote about the matchup and he noted that offensive coordinator Jason Beck called a simpler game plan for Tommy Carr when he came into the game against Penn State.

Basic RPO calls likely won't work against Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines, who has a unique scheme. If the Wolverines are going to take down Indiana on Saturday, Carr will have to show he can beat the Indiana defense through the air, which would open up the run game.

"Most of the damage came from the run game, but this sample was enough to give Carr the starting job.

"Coordinator Jason Beck mostly kept things easy for Carr -- basic RPOs, reads and rollouts. But he made good reads and rushed for 38 yards and a score, and Beck's playcalling made PSU defend the entire field. Carr's five completions were to four receivers in five different areas of the field.

"RPOs and rollouts alone probably won't work on Indiana. Against SP+ top-50 offenses, the Hoosiers are allowing 18 points per game; against lesser offenses, they've pitched two shutouts. (Michigan is 76th.) They are dominant against the run, and their lone vulnerability is in the secondary. Carr might have to make some big-time throws to get on the board," Connelly wrote

SP+ projection: Indiana by 8.1 | FPI projection: Indiana by 13.1

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