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Predicting Final Score of Michigan Football vs. Penn State in Must-Win Game

Here's how the game might play out.
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Which team is going to stop the bleeding on Saturday? Michigan will enter a home game against Penn State on a two game win streak, while the Nittany Lions are reeling, losing three games in a row. Both of these teams were expected to contend this season, but it's been a far cry from what was expected.

Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell are very familiar with one another, having coached against each other in the Big 12 Conference. With a lot of the same coaches following, both coaches will believe they have some sort of edge in game planning for this game.

But only one team can come out on top, and Michigan on SI predicts what the outcome will be.

Trent Knoop

Michigan Wolverines cornerback Smith Snowden (3),  defensive end Dominic Nichols
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When I look at this game, I can't help but wonder how Penn State is going to move the ball against Michigan. Clearly, if the Wolverines' offense continues to turn the ball over, that will help the Nittany Lions be in a position to put up some points.

Penn State has talent and that starts with quarterback Rocco Becht, but the Iowa State transfer has struggled since Big Ten play has begun. Michigan's edge rushers have a chance to wreak some havoc in this game.

On the flip side, Michigan has to establish its run game. Penn State was gashed by Northwestern for over 400 yards a couple of weeks ago. This is the game for the Wolverines to turn back the clock and run the ball like they want to. If Michigan can generate any sort of run game, the Wolverines should control the time of possession and can really lean on their defense to shut down PSU.

Final score: Michigan 24, Penn State 14

Justice Steiner

This is such a hard game to predict with both teams coming in on a losing streak and underperforming. Both teams desperately need this win and it is hard to trust either one. I think this game will be ugly and come down to if UofM’s offense can do enough to win the game and not leave the defense on the field the entire time.

Hopefully for the Wolverine fans, the bye week will serve them well and the rushing attack can get going for the first time this season. Michigan being at home is the difference and why the Wolverines pull this out.

Final score: Michigan 20, Penn State 17

Lucas Reimink

Michigan running back Savion Hiter (5) celebrates a first down against Iowa
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Michigan will try to reset their season after a disappointing 3-2 start. Similarly, Penn State is sitting at a very disappointing 3-3 record. With both teams badly needing a win in this game, it'll be a very interesting one to watch. On paper I think Michigan is the more talented team but they haven't played up to their talent level in any game except the Oklahoma game.

It’s hard for me to envision that a bye week was enough to fix all their issues, so I see this being another struggle of a game. I do think Michigan’s defense will be able to limit Penn State’s offense for most of the day though, and it'll be enough to carry them through to get the win.

Final score: Michigan 23, Penn State 17

Jacob Westendorf

Yes, I'm still on the train. Yes, i know how much the offense has struggled but I refuse to believe they cannot replicate a game plan similar to what Northwestern did against Penn State a few weeks ago. This is the week that Jason Beck gets back to running at defenses instead of around them.

This is the week we see Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter rumbling into the secondary. And yes, this is the week that Bryce Underwood staves off some of the criticisms of him, plays clean football, and leads his Wolverines to a dominant victory over a hapless Penn State team.

Final score: Michigan 27, Penn State 10

Jason B. Hirschhorn

Michigan wide receiver JJ Buchanan (6) runs into the end zone for a touchdown against Iowa
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The Wolverines hold two distinct edges in Saturday's tilt with the Nittany Lions: home-field advantage and an extra week to rest and plan. However, given Michigan's struggles in their last two outings -- failure to reach 20 points in either game and back-to-back blown fourth-quarter leads -- faith in the team has understandably wavered. The public votes of confidence, like those provided by head coach Kyle Whittingham for quarterback Bryce Underwood and offensive coordinator Jason Beck, typically don't foreshadow a strong recovery.

At the same time, many of the same critiques levied at the Wolverines also apply to their opponent. The Penn State offense has significantly underperformed, in part because of the overreliance on Iowa State transfers who followed new head coach Matt Campbell to State College. Quarterback Rocco Becht, the jewel of that transfer class, has looked awfully pedestrian since the beginning of Big Ten play, accounting for more interceptions (three) than touchdown passes (two) over those three contests. Becht still has time to turn his season around, but concerns about his efficacy against the higher level of competition persist.

So, while the Wolverines hardly enter Saturday on a high note, they remain more talented and better rested than the visitors. If Whittingham can't rally his team in this situation, then the questions about his future in Ann Arbor will no longer look premature.

Prediction: Michigan over Penn State

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent began writing and covering Michigan athletics back in 2020. He became a credentialed member of the media in 2021. Trent began writing with Sports Illustrated in 2023 and became the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines On SI during the 2025 football season. Trent also serves as the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI. His other bylines have appeared on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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Jacob Westendorf
JACOB WESTENDORF

Jacob is a sports writer across OnSI, including the Michigan Wolverines and the Green Bay Packers. He is a lifelong midwesterner who grew up watching Lloyd Carr, Charles Woodson and the 1997 National Champion Michigan Wolverines. Part of that passion is what inspired Jacob to pursue his journalism degree at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay. He graduated in 2014 with a Bachelor's in Journalism and Mass Media.

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Jason B. Hirschhorn
JASON B. HIRSCHHORN

Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sportswriter and member of both the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America. He is a co-founder of The Leap, a Green Bay Packers newsletter. His work has also appeared at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other major outlets.

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Justice Steiner
JUSTICE STEINER

A Battle Creek, Mich. native, Justice Steiner has been passionately involved in sports, currently as the sports information director at Davenport University, an NCAA Division II program, where he covers 12 sports. He also serves as the creative services director for the men's and women's baseball teams. Prior to DU, Steiner worked as a graduate assistant in the sports information office at the University of Louisville, working closely with the women's soccer, women's basketball, men's tennis and softball programs. While at Grand Valley State University, Steiner began his writing career at the Grand Valley Lanthorn. He graduated from GVSU with a degree in advertising and public relations.

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Lucas Reimink
LUCAS REIMINK

Lucas is a University of Michigan Alumni who has worked as a sports scouting and video analyst, including covering Michigan football for the past three seasons.