Where MSU Landed in Rankings at End of Regular Season

All the data points are in for all the teams at the end of the regular seasons, as the focus now shifts to conference tournaments. Some mid-major conferences have already completed their tourneys, in fact.

Michigan State wrapped up its regular season with a 25-6 overall mark and a 15-5 record during Big Ten play. This past week, the Spartans survived a frantic comeback by Rutgers in a 91-87 win on Thursday, and then fell short at No. 3 Michigan on Sunday, 90-80.

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. looks on during a break on the bench during the second half against Michigan on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

MSU was ranked eighth this past week. When the new AP Poll was released on Monday afternoon, Michigan State ended up holding steady at that No. 8 spot again. This is still one spot short of the Spartans' season-best ranking of seventh during the Dec. 1 and Jan. 26 polls, and this is the eighth week now that MSU has been ranked in the top 10 nationally.

Bolstering the resume just a little further to try and impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee is the main focus right now, though. Michigan State is headed to Chicago now for the Big Ten Tournament as the conference's third seed. The Spartans will face one of sixth-seeded UCLA, No. 11 seed Minnesota, or No. 14 seed Rutgers on Friday night (approximately 9 p.m. ET, BTN).

Glancing at MSU's Resume

Michigan State's Carson Cooper celebrates after a scoring and drawing a Michigan foul during the second half on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Given lots of bracket projections, Michigan State is in a very good spot to end up receiving a 2 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament. For MSU to probably feel good about staying on that seed line, though, it probably will need to come out with at least one victory in Chicago.

The Spartans are a stronger team than anyone that they'd face first in the quarterfinal round, so a one-and-done tourney while others around them near the top are picking up additional wins in their respective conference tournaments could result in enough damage that Michigan State becomes a 3 seed. UCLA, the most likely first opponent, would represent another Quad 1 opportunity for MSU, though.

One of the big things that the Spartans have going for them is their ranking in WAB, which stands for "wins above bubble." That metric is meant to measure how many greater (or fewer) wins a team has gotten against their schedule than an average bubble team would be expected to get. MSU ranks seventh nationally at 7.95 WAB, meaning that hypothetical bubble team would get projected to finish at about 17-14 while playing the schedule Michigan State ended up playing.

This is partially because MSU doesn't have any truly "bad" losses. The worst one is likely the game at Minnesota, but that game is still just inside Quad 1 territory. Losing games to Michigan or Duke barely cause a dent on a team's WAB, since an average bubble team would be widely expected to lose that game, too. Michigan State then adding resume wins against Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois, and Purdue also helps that number keep ticking up.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo looks on after a play against Michigan during the first half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, March 8, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images