Analyzing Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament Draw
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The bracket in the Big Ten is now set.
After a 25-6 regular season that featured a 15-5 record during Big Ten play, No. 8 Michigan State has received the third seed in this year's annual Big Ten Tournament. That means the Spartans have earned a triple-bye to the quarterfinals of the conference tourney, joining No. 1 seed Michigan (which just beat MSU 90-80 on Sunday), No. 2 seed Nebraska, and No. 4 seed Illinois.
That also means that Michigan State will reach at least the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten Tournament for the 28th time in 29 seasons (this includes the cancelled 2020 tourney, where MSU was the two seed).
This will be the biggest Big Ten Tournament yet, as this is the first year that 18 teams will be participating. Here is what we know about the Spartans' draw this season.
Potential Path to Title Game
Overall, one has to feel relatively good about the setup Michigan State has received here. The Spartans will end up facing one of No. 6 seed UCLA, No. 11 seed Minnesota, or No. 14 seed Rutgers during the last game of the quarterfinal on Friday night. The Golden Gophers and the Scarlet Knights will meet on Wednesday, with the winner of that game moving on to face the Bruins on Thursday for the right to face MSU.
No matter which team the Spartans end up facing first, it will be a later night than usual on Friday. Nebraska plays against one of four possible opponents (most likely seventh-seeded Purdue) at 6:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local) before Michigan State does. MSU's game starts 25 minutes after that game ends, so everyone back in East Lansing is likely looking at a tip time of probably 9 p.m. ET or so.
That first matchup should be one that favors the Spartans, though. UCLA is the most likely opponent, and Michigan State demolished the Bruins, 82-59, when the two teams met at the Breslin Center on Feb. 17. MSU went 2-0 against Rutgers this year in a pair of too-close-for-comfort games, but this is simply a "survive and advance" season. Minnesota got the best of the Spartans back on Feb. 4, but one would have to guess Michigan State wouldn't mind another shot at the Gophers.
The same thing goes for MSU's most likely semifinal opponent: Nebraska. Michigan State narrowly lost by two in Lincoln way back on Jan. 2. The Cornhuskers also haven't played their absolute best. Since starting 20-0 with a 9-0 start during conference play, Nebraska has finished the season just 6-5 in its last 11 games.
If the path is UCLA and then Nebraska to reach the title game, that's a path MSU is probably OK with. The Spartans are better than the Bruins, and while the Cornhuskers did win earlier this regular season, the close result at Nebraska and both teams' overall body of work probably indicate that Michigan State would be a favorite on a neutral court.
Top seed Michigan would probably be awaiting in the title game. MSU just got swept by UM for the first time in the 2013-14 season. What's also interesting about that season is that the Spartans ended up taking down the Wolverines in the BTT title game that year, too. We'll see if any sort of history can repeat itself.
A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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