With Jim Harbaugh gone, door opens for Michigan State to retake in-state rivalry
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When Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh as its next head football coach in December 2014, the overwhelming belief among the Wolverine fanbase was that U-M would immediately retake the in-state rivalry from Michigan State.
The Spartans and then-head coach Mark Dantonio had other ideas, winning two of the first three against Harbaugh and the Wolverines. Even Mel Tucker, with all of his flaws, went 2-1 against Michigan before being fired. In fact, this rivalry is as even as its been since the 1990s, when U-M won six of 10 games. Harbaugh finishes his tenure in Ann Arbor with a 5-4 record against MSU — a winning mark, but not the landslide Wolverine fans expected.
Despite the recent competitiveness, this series has a way of swinging hard in one direction and staying there for a while, and coaching changes are often the start of a new swing. Before Harbaugh arrived at Michigan, this rivalry was owned by Dantonio and the Spartans. Michigan State won six of seven games in the series from 2008-14 and outscored the Wolverines 197-101 during that stretch. Conversely, prior to MSU hiring Dantonio, Michigan had won five consecutive in the series and six of the previous seven.
From 1950 through 1969, which encapsulated the final four years of the Clarence Munn era and first 16 years of the Duffy Daugherty era at Michigan State, the Spartans dominated the series with 14 wins, four losses and two ties. However, 1969 was Michigan's first season under Bo Schembechler, who swung the rivalry back towards the Wolverines in a major way, going 17-4 against Michigan State during his 21-year tenure.
The 90s, as mentioned above, were a back-and-forth affair with MSU's George Perles and U-M's Gary Moeller beginning the decade, before both schools hired new head coaches in 1995 — Nick Saban at Michigan State and Lloyd Carr at Michigan.
That brings us back to present day, as both programs will have new head coaches in 2024 for the first time in 20 years. MSU hired Oregon State's Jonathan Smith to get things back on track in East Lansing. Michigan is expected to promote Harbaugh's second-in-command, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, in an attempt to continue the best stretch the Wolverines have enjoyed in three decades.
Let's assume Moore get's the job at U-M. He'll have a head start in Ann Arbor, inheriting what's left of a national championship-winning roster and the nation's No. 16-ranked recruiting class (247Sports). Smith, meanwhile, takes over a roster which has produced back-to-back losing seasons, and had to salvage the Spartans' 2024 class, which sits at No. 46 nationally.
However, Smith's advantage comes from having a six prior years of experience as a head coach at Oregon State. When the 45-year-old old took over his alma mater, the Beavers were coming off a disastrous tenure under Gary Anderson, having gone 7-29 in three seasons. It took time for Smith to turn things around. Oregon State went 9-22 in his first three years, but 25-13 in Smith's final three seasons.
Moore, on the other hand, would become a head coach for the first time in his career. The 37-year-old is well-liked and respected in the coaching industry, and may end up being a good head coach, but it's hard to be "the guy who replaces 'the guy'". Michigan will need to replace any assistant coaches who follow Harbaugh to the NFL, likely including defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, and Moore will have to make those hires for the first time.
Based mostly on Moore's inexperience in leading a program, it's more than fair to suggest Michigan State could have a leg up on their rivals in the coaching department with Smith. The Wolverines have the edge in roster talent, even with all the NFL departures they've suffered, but the Spartans can start to close that gap quickly in the transfer portal era.
The 2024 rendition of the "Battle for Paul Bunyan" will take place in Ann Arbor. It's far too early to make a prediction for that game, but it's fair to say the Wolverines should have an edge — their roster is better and they're at home. However, the future of this rivalry could start to take shape in 2025, after both new coaches have a full year under their belt with their new programs.
This rivalry has been split evenly over the last decade, with each school taking Paul home five times. Now, a new chapter in the series' history is about to be written, and future bragging rights are ripe for the taking.
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