Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State (0-0) vs. Western Michigan (0-0)

A look at this week’s opponent… The Broncos are NOT the team the Spartans faced two years ago on their way to a Rose Bowl win and a #3 ranking. The Broncos

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Broncos are NOT the team the Spartans faced two years ago on their way to a Rose Bowl win and a #3 ranking. The Broncos are experienced and have significantly more depth. They are also not intimidated by the magnitude of the game and they are ready. Third year Coach PJ Fleck is on the radar of every major program with thoughts that a coaching change may be on the horizon and they are not only embracing this game, they want it.

Dantonio praised Fleck and his program this week. “Coach Fleck as he goes into his third year, 8-5 last year, after being 1-10, one of the biggest turnarounds in the country, outstanding job there. They're returning eight offensive starters, seven defensive starters, along with a kicker, punter and snapper. They've got great experience on their football team…Their expectations are very high as we move into 2015.”

When MSU has the ball…

The Spartans have a nearly 40 pound advantage across the board against the Broncos. PJ Fleck admitted to me this week on Spartan Nation Radio that my summation of this game coming down to the line of scrimmage was “100% correct.” While MSU searches for their next RB, they won’t shy from the physicality that has brought them success.

">WMU is going to load the box. The Spartans are bigger, but if you have five or six guys blocking seven or eight Broncos, it is irrelevant how much bigger they are. The Broncos are not big, but they are tough. The teams that beat MSU are the ones that can maintain the run without stacking the box (OSU last year) or the ones that can load the box and have the defensive backfield skilled enough to guard your passing game in single coverage such as Oregon last season on defense.

If the Spartans are running the ball with success, this is game over. WMU has one priority other than the obvious of winning and that is to limit the Spartans rushing attack. They want to force Connor Cook into pressure situations and force MSU to win an aerial attack.

I would expect MSU to come out and attack; go to the air passing when they want to and NOT when WMU forces them to. If MSU struggles in this game, look at the turnovers. MSU should win this game no doubt; for WMU to beat them the Spartans must help. Cheap turnovers that let the Broncos hang around is how you do that.

Once the Spartans develop an aerial presence that will force WMU out of the box and the game is over. WMU can’t stop the MSU running game without numbers. It would be like a Tom Izzo opponent needing seven or eight players against his five. Stacking the box allows that. The MSU offense is potent, among the nation’s elite. In this game everyone knows what WMU will do. It is pertinent for the Spartans to make this more about them, than WMU. Do your thing and you win big.

When MSU is on defense…

The Spartans defense is good, very good, albeit untested in some areas. Again WMU can’t face them heads up, they must create mismatches. The Broncos want to play this game in space, while the Spartans want to play in a phone booth. Look for bubble screens from Western, some up tempo and trying to go vertical when their quarterback has time.

WMU has a QB, a running back, and wide receivers that could play in the Big Ten. If they can get quick throws and the RB out in space they can give the Spartans fits. That is why this game has a defensive game plan predicated on speed.

The Spartans must be all over the Broncos QB Zach Terrell. They must pound him. If he has the ball for anything more than a three step pass you want him to physically feel it. He is good and tough. ">As a freshman in 2013 he threw his first TD pass at MSU and he is exponentially better now. He won’t be intimidated.

Dantonio loves Terrell. “He's a great quarterback. He's going to put a lot of pressure on us in terms of what he does. Their passing game, they cover all bases. They go deep, intermediate, short. There's bubble screens, et cetera. They hit all the different gamuts out there that's being done in football today, in offensive football today. They're diverse. We have to be able to play. They're a no-huddle offense, all that kind of stuff. We have to be able to play at our best. Those are the expectations that are here defensively, and those are the challenges we're faced with.”

If he has time and is able to force the Spartans out of the box to defend his passing skills the Spartans are going to struggle. This game mandates the Spartans dominate physically. They can’t allow this game to be played in space.

Dantonio said of the Bronco offense, “Top guys on the offense, No. 84, Corey Davis, Braverman, No. 8, Franklin their tailback, freshman of the year last year, big running back. Hand him the ball 25, 30 times. He's going to have touches. And Zach Terrell, their quarterback. Offensive line returns three starters as well.”

The Spartans need to be opportunistic. This is big boy football and while the front seven of MSU are the best in the nation, this new defensive backfield must prove that they too are worthy of being called the “No fly zone.”

Intangibles…

The Spartans have won 26 of their last 29 games. The Spartans when ranked have NEVER lost (29-0) to an unranked team. Those are impressive stats, but this WMU team played the Spartans to a 26-13 game in East Lansing two years ago in which an anemic MSU offense couldn’t move the ball and the Spartan D scored twice.

The Broncos know that the Spartans are better, but this game is at home and the Spartans are now the hunted. To beat a top five team at home on national TV would propel this program to astronomical heights. If they played this game 50 times MSU would win big 46 of them. Could this be one of the four? That is all that matters. At the skill positions WMU matches up. This game is all about the line of scrimmage.

MSU wants a brawl, a street fight, and WMU wants a dance party. If this game is played in a phone booth (physical and grueling) MSU will destroy a very solid WMU team. If this game is allowed to be played in space and based on speed and separation this could be a very long night.

If Terrell is holding the ball and not getting sacked, look out: UPSET ALERT!

A lot of people think the Spartans may be peeking ahead. I don’t see it. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and I agree. Dantonio teams don’t do that. Dantonio isn’t concerned either. “Our football team has always done a great job in terms of focusing on the present, focusing on the moment. But especially in your first game, I don't think people look too far in advance. Pretty much everybody concentrates on that first game. Our focus is entirely on Western. It has been here since probably late last week. We're looking forward to the moment. But I'm not concerned about that at all. We have a pretty mature football team in terms of a lot of fifth-year seniors, things of that nature. We also have a short memory, or a long memory. I guess it would be a long memory.”

I will add this one intangible. The Spartans nationally are the bell of the ball. They have been told how pretty they are and good. Will they tense up in a close game they should blow an opponent up in, or will they take it in stride? I think this is a mature team, but we don’t know and you don’t. Only under pressure do you learn. That is a major intangible tonight.

Prediction…

WMU is a good team. MSU is a great team. I think the Spartans are fortunate to have some mature leaders, and I think this season has all the makings of being special. To me this comes down to turnovers. If MSU avoids them it is over. Turnovers not only end drives they give underdogs hope. Football is a game of emotion and WMU is good. MSU can’t help them.

Make it 45-13 MSU wins!