Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 10-1 (6-1) vs. Penn State 7-4 (4-3)

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 10-1 (6-1) vs. Penn State 7-4 (4-3) A look at this week’s opponent… This game is the most important of

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 10-1 (6-1) vs. Penn State 7-4 (4-3)

A look at this week’s opponent…

This game is the most important of the season. MSU is two wins away from almost assuredly making the college football playoff and with the win last week Mark Dantonio has now recorded their fifth 10+ winning record in the past six years.

Mark Dantonio stated it even more succinctly saying, “Obviously, our goal is to win the east. That is the first primary object of this football game, beat Penn State, win the East. Penn State has a good football team.”

Penn State Head Coach James Franklin made it real clear that the Spartans have his respect and attention as he prepares to come to Spartan Stadium for the first time. “Michigan State, got another really good opportunity, you could make an argument maybe the top program in the conference right now, No. 6 team in the country on the road, a team that finds a way to win. You look at their Michigan win this year, you look at their Ohio State win on the road, they've got a culture of winning that they've established now. Again, they have talent on offense, defense and special teams and at each level, and they play smart. They play smart, and they play sound football.”

He added to those thoughts, “A tremendous opportunity for us. Looking forward -- I've never been there, so looking forward to the opportunity to go check it out. They have 13 seniors starting for them, eight juniors, and then they also have two on special teams. So, 20 juniors and seniors starting for them, doing some really good things. An experienced football team, a talented football team, so it should be a tremendous challenge.”

When MSU has the ball…

MSU QB Connor Cook is questionable. Because it is senior day I could see Cook playing a small amount to simply hand the ball off, but I do not expect any significant amount of reps if they can avoid it.

Dantonio said of the Lions stout defense, “Very impressed with their defense. 44 sacks, leads the Big Ten Conference, physical, very physical front, physical linebackers, thumpers. Secondary plays well.”

Penn State’s spectacular DT Austin Johnson knows that they can spoil the Spartans’ dream this week. He thinks his defense needs to make it more about the Lions than the Spartans. He said of the game for the Lions D, “We're going to treat every game like it's the same, but obviously this is a really big game for a lot of teams, not just us. I want to win this game really bad, not just to be the spoiler, but just to make Anthony [Zettel], Carl [Nassib], and Tarow [Barney] happy. To help Kyle [Carter] and Matt [Zanellato] and all of our seniors end the regular season on a good note.”

MSU played a dual threat approach with Tyler O’Connor, the true backup, augmented by Damion Terry. The Spartans were run heavy with the two of them last week, but that doesn’t mean predictable. They broke the flow up well and the Buckeyes paid for it.

I expect MSU to have to pass more against PSU, but as long as they can keep the Lions guessing, MSU will be fine. The Lions have a very good defense and the Spartans are not going to have it easy against them.

When MSU is on defense…

Pressure is the prescription for the Spartans. They know that the PSU OL has struggled with protection and with an NFL QB; they have to get to him and pound him. MSU will bring pressure from everywhere.

Michigan State and their head coach in Mark Dantonio know how talented the Lions players are and that includes on offense. Dantonio said, “I think they have an outstanding quarterback in Hackenberg. Very talented freshman running back, Barkley, and skilled players that surround them. So I'll take some questions and we'll go from there.”

Franklin thinks the defensive success of the Spartans starts on the DL. “I think they're playing really the way they've been playing for the last couple years. They're big and physical and long on the defensive line. They are really, really long, 6'5", 6'6", 6'4", big, physical, guys, juniors and seniors, playmakers, guys that have been making plays there for multiple years. At linebacker they're very, very productive, and in the secondary they are athletic and long, as well. I mean, that's kind of their model. It's like their whole defense is six-foot or taller, and they challenge you. They challenge every yard. They challenge every route. They're going to be in your face with press coverage on the perimeter, no gimme throws, no easy throws, and then they're going to use their safeties. They're going to get very involved in the run game, which puts their corners in some challenging positions at times, but their philosophy is they're going to get to you before you can get the ball out, and that philosophy has worked very well for them for the last couple years, and that's exactly what showed up again on Saturday.”

Lions WR Geno Lewis actually likes the Spartans’ defensive attack where the DB wearing the green and the white will be up in his face. Be careful what you wish for young man, but he said, “I feel, personally, if a defensive back wants to press and play man, it's a better opportunity for the receiver to make plays because it's basically playing one-on-one and you're on an island. I think it's a great challenge. They have a great defense right now. They're coming off a good win, but we want to go out there and make some plays. I'm confident in our receiving corps and that we have guys in our room that are going to go out there and try to take advantage of what they show us.”

The Lions QB has suffered under poor coaching of James Franklin. I am not a fan of Franklin and frankly I think he was a terrible choice for the storied PSU program. His tenure will come to an end sooner rather than later in Happy Valley I predict.

You only need to look at the development of their QB Hackenberg under the previous coaching staff and the lack of development (regression) under this one. I like PSU, and it’s sad to see them like this. One thing you never could say during my lifetime until Franklin arrived is that in nearly every game you could count coaching as a negative from the head coach. You can now.

Intangibles…

This present group of seniors depending on how the season should end has a great chance of being the all-time winningest class in Spartan football history. Dantonio reflected on this groups’ chance to make history and leave such an impressive footprint.

“When we come in and have our freshmen come in and really look forward in our first days of August practice, what do our freshmen look like? That is the exciting thing. You know your sophomores and the other guys. But you sort of wonder, hey, what do these new freshmen look like? I remember in 2011 when we were going through that Harlon Barnett set, we'll have four, five, six or seven pro players in this class, and that's what it's shaping up to be. High draft choices, and that's what it's shaping up to be.” He finished speaking of this class saying, “So we had high expectations for those guys from day one. Don't get into all the rankings and all that kind of stuff, because people grow and develop. Between 18 and 22, there is a huge difference in who they come as and who they leave as in terms of physical development, mental development, all those things, confidence, injuries, those types of things. So we've had some guys. These guys are good players as their record indicates.”

The Spartans are playing for big things on Saturday, but Franklin doesn’t want anyone to think the Lions who are out of consideration for a B1G title aren’t playing for anything. He thinks the stakes are large for them as well. “No, we're playing for a lot. We're playing for a lot on Saturday. We've got a chance to win eight games in the regular season. We've got a chance to go into a bowl (with momentum). We've got a chance to continue to do special things on the field and continue to build our program and our culture and the things that we're doing, so we're playing for a lot. Trust me; we're playing for a lot. We played for a lot on Saturday. A lot of people live and die Penn State Football, and it's very, very important to them, so trust me, my staff and our players feel like we're playing for a lot on Saturday and feel like that every single Saturday.”

Extra Point…

This Spartan team has beaten both OSU and UM without leading one second of regulation. Those two wins combined with the loss to the Huskers have cemented in Dantonio’s team mindset how crucial and close every game can and will be.

Dantonio said, “I think you've got to play until the last play of the game. We've played certainly for that play this last week. We just keep playing. The game is not ever over until it's done. At the end of the day we can go through all the scenarios, but there is a win on this side and there is a loss on this side one way or the other.” He went on to add, “Same thing could be said. We didn't finish the Nebraska game. You know, it's right there, we could have won it, but we did not. So there are good things that happen at the end of the game and then bad. But we found a way to win. I think it speaks to the foundation of the program, really, in terms of what I said earlier to some people. We know how to win. We understand how to win. Now you have to do that, but we do understand what it takes to win. We understand how to play until the end of the game.”

This Lions season has been a disappointment and they are playing the role of spoiler this week. In fact, LB Troy Reeder says they can prove something with an upset of #5 MSU. “I think there's always something left to prove, unless you're the national champion. I think for us, we just know that the best is still yet to come. Even though this is the last game of the regular season, we know that we have more left in our tanks. We're continuing to grow and get better and better every week. I think for us, we want to send these [seniors] out on a high note. And, for the rest of us, the returning players, we want to just end the season on a high note and go into next year with some momentum. In terms of what we want to prove, it's just that a lot of people out there question how high of a level are we capable of playing at, and I think we've done a good job of hanging in some tight games. But, for us, I think it's time that we knock off a power five team.”

Prediction…

Dan Murphy from ESPN said on Spartan Nation Radio this past week that he sees it MSU 29-18. Tico Duckett predicts 28-14, TJ Duckett says 42 to 7 MSU, and I think the Spartans blow the roof off 41-10 Spartans.