Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 11-1 (7-1) vs. #4 Iowa 12-0 (8-0)

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 11-1 (7-1) vs. #4 Iowa 12-0 (8-0) A look at this week’s opponent… Everything about this game is enormous.

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 11-1 (7-1) vs. #4 Iowa 12-0 (8-0)

A look at this week’s opponent…

Everything about this game is enormous. The Big Ten championship game has that feel every time, it is tangible. When MSU was here in 2013 they were playing for the Rose Bowl BUT NOT a national title. Tonight they are. To me alone that makes this game bigger than that Rose Bowl and makes it the biggest game of the Mark Dantonio era.

The feel of the B1G Championship game is different and it is tangible. Dantonio said, “You walk in there, and you have the feel that, okay, we're here. You see -- you roll up on it in your bus, coming from the airport or wherever, and you see Lucas Oil and you know that this is one of the things that you shoot for. You shoot at the beginning of year, you shoot for that game. That's all you can control is getting into that game. When you see -- when you roll up in the bus and you see that, you have a good feeling about it. You get excited. It's exciting to play and that's it is way I hope our players approach this. No stress, a little bit of pressure but play through it, have fun.”

Walking the streets here there is plenty more Iowa fans than Spartans, but remember that in 2011 there were far more Spartans than Badgers. It is a short drive from Michigan to Indianapolis so are the Spartans simply in a been here mentality because of how many times they’ve been in Indy for big games and just heading down for the game?

Iowa Head Coach Kirk Ferentz said of the Spartans, “Michigan State, needless to say, is an excellent football team. They're very strong on offense. They've got a veteran quarterback who's been very, very successful, very balanced, good offensive line, good running backs, excellent receivers. And then on the defensive side, like you'd expect from Michigan State, they're very, very good defensively, and it starts up front. They've got an outstanding group of defensive linemen, got a lot of good players, but that group is extremely impressive.” He added, “Really since Mark Dantonio got to Michigan State in 2007, they've had a first-class program. They've had tremendous success, and I think if you look at this year, particularly the last two ballgames, it says a lot about their football team. They go into Columbus two weeks ago or a couple weeks back without their starting quarterback, not able to play, and the way they won that football game, that was extremely impressive, and then came back last week, the quarterback was back with them, and they just looked like a very well-rounded, dynamic football team.”

To me, these are two very good teams. Should MSU win, and that is should not a definite, there is NO ONE in the nation with the credentials to jump over Iowa and get in the playoff should Alabama or Clemson lose. Stanford? They lost to Northwestern and Iowa beat the Cats, and the committee says head to head matters and Stanford has two losses. Ohio State? They would both have one loss and the committee says playing in a championship game matters. Iowa played in that and also played an additional game. What do you call 105 people sitting at home watching this game? Buckeyes. Enough said. North Carolina? They played two NCAA 1-AA teams and the committee says your schedule matters. Like I said, this Iowa team is elite.

I will go one step farther. This is the best team MSU has faced all year. They are a lot like the 2013 Spartans as they played poorly but found a way to win early and matured over the campaign. I like these Hawkeyes.

When MSU has the ball…

The Hawkeyes are the 15th ranked defense in the nation. They are sixth against the run and 63rd against the pass. MSU can’t win by running it down their throat. MSU must go on the attack and while Iowa doesn’t like to blitz like MSU, they must use Cook to open the run with the pass.

MSU QB Connor Cook is well aware of the Iowa defensive backfield. The Spartans blew it in recruiting by not offering Desmond King who is from Detroit and is now the best DB in the nation.

Cook talked about the highly rated Hawkeye DB crew and especially King. “He leads the Big Ten in interceptions, and he's a good player. Looking at him, he's got some good size; he's got speed, everything you want in a corner back. If there is anything that I would compare him to -- from guys that we've played, I think he's like Likely from Maryland, but he's just bigger. Likely is kind of smaller, has the speed, can break on balls, can break on practices, can break it up, you know, anytime he really wants to, and I see that in King, but King just has the size. Likely is 5-8 or 5-9, King is around 6-1, 6-2, so he's a relatively bigger corner, but it's just something -- we have great receivers so we are looking forward to the match-up, and I would say for sure looking at their defense, Iowa's defense, I think their secondary is for sure their strong point, their strong suit.”

Dantonio has a lot more respect for the Hawkeyes defense than the national media. He said of the Hawks defensive side of the ball, “I think they're two gap people up front, which makes it difficult to run. Their linebackers are thumpers, they play downhill. Their secondary is very technique oriented; they play very disciplined. And, you know, you may get something here, but they'll take away something else over there. They're just -- they're extremely disciplined. They run, they fit, they fit the gaps correctly, and they tackle well in space, you know, they don't give up a lot of big plays and those type of things, so they have just been very consistent over the years.”

The Spartans offense is potent and I think can do well against the Hawks, but not if the MSU coaches revert to a run it down your throat style. I do not anticipate it, but do not take these Hawks lightly folks.

There is one big stat for this game that I can’t get over. ZERO. That is the number of times a PSU player TOUCHED Connor Cook last week. This Spartan OL is healthy and dialed in.

When MSU is on defense…

Pressure is the prescription for the Spartans. Iowa has the 63rd ranked offense. They are the 32nd ranked rushing attack and 92nd ranked passing attack. Iowa doesn’t have to run for more than they pass, but they WILL NOT be able to just run it down the Spartans’ throat either.

These Hawks must be able to throw and if the Spartan can’t get pressure and have to unload the box, the Hawks will win. Passing enough and avoiding the pressure is the key to the Hawks’ success.

I asked Ferentz yesterday about the MSU defensive backfield. No doubt it has improved and matured over the season and I asked what he had noticed about their maturation. “They had some injuries. Every team goes through that during the course of the season.  Every team goes through that, particularly in the back end. The thing that's been pretty consistent is the play up front. They've got an outstanding defensive line, three seniors out of four.  The guy that is not a senior is a tremendous talent, tremendous football player. They're really good up front. Their linebackers are playing aggressively like Michigan State linebackers always do.  To see a Michigan State team playing great defense is hardly a shock.”

MSU senior LB and captain Darien Harris has a ton of respect as he sees what the Hawks bring on offense. “So we've got a lot of film on Iowa, and vice versa, and you've just got to go in there with the mind-set it's going to be a hard-nosed, smash-mouth kind of game of football. They do a great job with zone blocking, their line is extremely solid, and they have a rotation of running backs, and they're all capable and able at what they do, and they can throw the ball down the field as well, so you've got to be disciplined in what you do, especially defensively, and go in knowing it's going to be a really hard-fought, hard-nosed game of football.”

Riley Bullough, the QB of the MSU D, thinks that Iowa may not try to trick you, but they will try to physically take it to you. “They're not going to go out there and trick you too much, they're kinda going to lineup and do what they do. So in that kind of game it's really who wants it more, who is going to play more intense, more physical, and I feel like on our team we're the most physical team, we're the toughest team out there, so I think we really like this match-up. We're excited to play. We know Iowa is a great team, but, you know, like I said, we're just excited to play and get after it Saturday night.”

Echoing Bullough, senior DT Joel Heath said of the Hawks, “I think it's important that both teams come with that physical mind-set when playing this game. I think the front seven is going to be the most important asset to the game, so whoever wins on both sides physically is going to be the most dominant team and come out with the win.”

MSU must pressure and get the Hawks’ signal caller. If you see the Iowa QB getting rushed and not being allowed to pick the Spartans apart with time, this is game over. This is not a for sure, that is why the Spartans MUST have maximum effort. Iowa won’t quit like the Buckeyes. They are hungry. They mirror the Spartans intensity.

Intangibles…

This game has a weird feel for me. Iowa is undefeated yet are nearly four point underdogs to MSU. It is Iowa playing the disrespect card (and rightfully so) while MSU is the belle of the ball. This Iowa team is no fluke. They deserve to be here and they are playing that disrespect card in a way that looks like they took a page out of the Mark Dantonio playbook.

You can make all the assessments of how that works, but it would only be guessing. The Spartans were loose yesterday. This is the third time here for the program and for many of the players. When MSU was here last time I wrote about MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio being loose and smiling while Urban looked uptight and even skipped his pregame interview. I was ridiculed for even saying that.

Dantonio was asked about being very open about the enormity of this game. “I just think people need to know what direction we're going in, there is no secrets here. We built this program to a point where those are our goals now. Initially our goals were to do other things but these -- this is where we're at now. This is why we've come here. We recruited to these goals, and the fact that we've reached to this point we've reached here, we're at this point, gives credibility to what we talk about here.
He concluded, “So that's what we do. We paint a picture for our players, and I think every coach in America probably does that, they paint pictures for their players and their programs and then they try to color them in, I guess.”

Iowa Head Coach Kirk Ferentz was loose as well trying to approach this game as no big deal, just the next one. Dantonio hyped up the enormity of this game and the winner getting their golden ticket punched to the 2nd annual College Football Playoff. How does their mindset playout? We shall see.

Extra Point…

This Spartan team has been here before and I can tell you this is the third time MSU has been here and I have covered all three. This game has a bigger feel than the Rose Bowl. You can feel it as soon as you drive up to the stadium.

I asked Dantonio if having been here before gives the Spartans an advantage this week. He thought it did. “I think it's an advantage for us internally. I don't know versus them and all that, but for us, having players that have gone there in '11, and some of them sat in the stands, because you are only allowed so many players on the field. Some of them were on the sidelines, did not play, but they experienced the game, and then going there in '13, a lot of guys played in that game and being successful there. This is the third time in five years that we have been able to go and play for a championship. So I think that -- that can't hurt us. That can only help us.” He added, “Our players can talk to the other people and give them that experience, what the stadium is like, what's this like, what's the climate like, the atmosphere like. It's a sell-out. It should be very exciting for them. "Game Day" is there again, so this will be the fourth time we play on "Game Day" I guess, or had "Game Day" there, so that will be exciting as well.”

 

Prediction…

The last three B1G Championship games the underdog has won. I mentioned earlier that MSU is the favorite. My buddies and partners on Spartan Nation TV seem to agree with me. The great TJ Duckett says 28-17, Tico Duckett thinks 28-27 and I say 35-24 and we all think: Spartans.

The Spartans will move on to the College Football Playoff.