Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 6-1 (3-0) vs. Michigan Wolverines 3-4 (1-2)

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 6-1 (3-0) vs. Michigan Wolverines 3-4 (1-2) A look at this week’s opponent… The Spartans nemesis and

Scouting Report and Prediction: #5 Michigan State 6-1 (3-0) vs. Michigan Wolverines 3-4 (1-2)

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Spartans nemesis and arch rival, the Michigan Wolverines, make the journey to the High Cathedral of the Spartan Nation: Spartan stadium for the 107th matchup in this series. The Spartans are riding a tidal wave of expectation and the Wolverines are trying not to implode. Oh, how the times have changed.

When MSU has the ball…

The Spartans offense is the reason MSU wins this game. In the past since Dantonio arrived it was the Spartans D that was the clarion call for a W. Not this year. The Wolverines for much of last year kept the Spartans rushing attack in check and a closer look at their defense this year reveals some very interesting information.

The Wolverines this season are not good on offense. Whereas, the Spartans through seven games have played 422 defensive snaps, the Wolverines have faced 456. The reason for the disparity is that the MSU offense controls the ball and keeps the D off the field.

Digging deeper into those numbers we see that the UM rushing D is statistically better than the Spartans. While UM is giving up 93 yards per game (2nd best in the B1G), the Spartans are giving up 101 (third best in the conference).

If Michigan State is to win this game, they will have to do it via the aerial attack. Even last year MSU had to go to the air to get the Wolverines out of the box so they could run. The Spartans statistical success running last year was a true outlier. If you were not aware of the actual game, only when they had success through the air did their rushing attack prosper. I look for the same this week.

Earlier this week, MSU head coach Mark Dantonio addressed the need to be able to run the ball in this game. “I think that's an indication of can you control the line of scrimmage or not, and I think that any football team that controls the line of scrimmage usually wins the football game, and I think that's pretty much true probably in most football games. If you win up front you've got a great chance to win the football game. Doesn't mean it's always going to happen, but you have a chance. We try to do that every time we play a football game, we're going to try to win up front.”

This week every year you hear a lot of stats about the winner nearly always rushes for more. I support that, but with a caveat. Points are what matters most. The Spartans offense is ready for the Wolverines to place other players in the box. OC Dave Warner admitted that it was the Spartans’ aerial fire power that must be on high alert for this game.

Look for the Spartans to attempt to get Josiah Price more involved this week. His ability across the middle in early down situations will force UM to rethink their rushing defense. Price’s presence can also force linebackers to drop back and safeties to cheat up opening some downfield passing lanes.

Spartan captain Travis Jackson has played in enough of these games that he understands the emotion, the fire, and the commitment it takes to win. The Spartans OL standout said of this contest, “I think if you look at the past games, the team that rushes the most wins the game. That's going to be very important to get our rushing game going. So that's definitely something we're going to focus on this week. Their front seven is very physical. They play really fast. We just watched film on them on Sunday night and yesterday, so they're going to come ready to play, and that's going to be a difficult task for us. But we need to get the run game going and have it be consistent through all four quarters.”

Spartan RB Jeremy Langford had nothing but praise for his OL. He knows for him to have a big day the big uglies on the line must come through. “The offensive line has done a great job up front and keeping people healthy, so they open up a big hole. So the rest of the running backs have to deliver behind the offensive line, they'll do a great job.”

The Spartans rushing attack can’t get going without that presence via the air and Connor Cook knows his decision making and accuracy will be key for MSU. Cook is facing a solid defense that for them to win, must capitalize on mistakes. His mistakes.

Dantonio loves the fire from his gunslinger. “I think he's an extremely competitive guy, I don't think he's afraid to make the throws and take risks, calculated risks, and he's got a great release, great arm, and he's a big bodied guy. I think he's a student of the game. He looks to get better every day, and I think it bothers him if he doesn't get better every day. So is it perfect? No, nothing is perfect.”

Dantonio went on, “That's part of being a quarterback, being able to throw and move and create and throw balls off your back foot sometimes, with the wrong foot forward as he did on one throw last week because he got something at his legs. It's the ability to complete balls when they don't look like they should be thrown sometimes. Why did he throw that? Okay, but it was complete. I think those things just occur, but he's a gamer. He's resilient, he's our guy, I believe in him. He's confident.”

I expect the Wolverines to stack the box and put double coverage on MSU star WR Tony Lippett to force Cook to look at other receivers and make them beat him. Tony Lippett is fine with that. He is used to being double teamed now and he is ready for it.

Lippett addressed it saying, “I noticed being doubled a little bit more and more attention is being focused on me a little bit. I just try to approach the game the same way. If they came up to me and tried to double team me, I just try to manipulate as much as I can and get open. I don't really face it like that at practice, so it will be something I have to adjust on the fly with and some of that nature. But a few teams have double covered me before, and I guess I kind of figured out a little way to attack it just a little bit better.”

So how does this boil down? Rushing yards are big, and MSU can win them. They must avoid mistakes that keep a big underdog in the game and use the pass to set up the run. I look for MSU to go to the air quickly and early.

When MSU is on defense…

Simple scenario here for me. The Spartan defense must not let the Wolverines run the ball. Devin Funchess is not a good player; he is an elite star. He is going to get his catches, but against the Spartans D I don’t expect him to be the reason UM wins or loses. That will come on the ground.

The Michigan State defense has had the recipe for stopping the Wolverines and I see no reason why that won’t continue. I certainly don’t expect them to hold Michigan to negative rushing yards like they did last year, but I do expect them to be able to control them.

Dantonio knows how blessed he is to have the staff he does. He bragged on them earlier this week saying, “Coach Narduzzi, our defensive staff, and how we function as a defensive is extremely important in terms of how we play overall; I don't care whether it's this football game or another football game, and we've had a lot of success here because of it. I also think minus 48 yards when you talk about that, you're not looking at pure rushing yards you're being looking at the pass yards on to that, which takes away from that. So a little bit misleading I think in that aspect. I think you have to understand that aspect, too.”

Wolverine QB Devin Gardner is a play maker and Spartans stud DE Marcus Rush has competed enough with him to respect the Maize and Blue signal caller. “He's always been an athletic guy. He can throw the ball and he can also run the ball. So you've got to watch for it's kind of hard as a D lineman, because you want to get a good pass rush. But at the same time, you've got to watch for him scrambling. So I mean, that's what he does well.”

The best DE tandem in the nation plays for the Spartans and Shilique Calhoun echoed the respect Rush had for Gardner. “Very shifty guy. Does a great job of being elusive even when his tackles don't hold up or his guards don't hold up, he does a great job making plays off of broken plays. So I think the biggest thing is being aggressive, and I would say just putting him in the well, I guess.”

Captain Kurtis Drummond has seen firsthand the power of Gardner and he expects the Wolverines to use him a lot. “They have a great quarterback and great athlete in Devin. I would envision them using Devin to all his strengths, just trying to get him out of the pocket more, maybe throwing the ball down field more. But they'll work on their game plan, and we'll be ready for whatever they're trying to do.”

One emerging star on this team is MLB Taiwan Jones. A wonderful young man, Jones says that after negative forty eight yards last year (-48) it doesn’t matter. This year the Spartans must come out and establish dominance. “There is always room to get better. There are always things that we need to improve on. I'm sure there are things we'll see this week in film that we didn't have too much success with last year, so there is always room to get better. We always just feel like we can always do something that much better in order to give our offense a little more momentum and just to give ourselves momentum as well.”

Intangibles…

This is no secret. In a rivalry game, the records don’t matter. This is a battle of wills and pride. I keep juxtaposing my thought process on this game. The MSU aerial attack is so deadly I can’t imagine UM shutting it down and the run. They will go after the run.

Does Cook and the aerial presence have enough of a calm presence to punish UM early? To deliver an emotional sucker punch early? If we are 10 minutes into the third quarter and the score is 10 points or less difference, the Spartans are in real trouble.

I think MSU needs to come out, go immediately to the air, and make UM adjust to them. They need to dictate the Wolverines will while starving their small hopes at an upset. MSU mistakes or failure to execute is the reason MSU could lose this game.

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

It is important for Spartan Nation to remember something. UM has talent. A ton of it. They have systemic organizational issues that are keeping them back. Don’t disrespect the Wolverine; they are dangerous and playing to keep the job of a coach they love.

Prediction…

This is perplexing. My head tells me that MSU is dialed in, comes out strong, and takes the game right at the Wolverines. That is a good scenario for MSU. My heart keeps telling me that I didn’t think this team would let up again after Oregon. I told you all that. I was wrong.

I have had sustained and great success because I always talk with what my logic and football knowledge tells me and avoid my heart. I know that if the Spartans defense lets UM gouge them like Indiana did, they lose this contest. That isn’t going to happen.

I think MSU comes out on the attack. They will go after the Wolverines and be relentless. After a fiery halftime speech in which Dantonio reminds them about letting off the accelerator they get two more quick touchdowns in the second half and a late fourth quarter touchdown. I say MSU wins this 41-10.