Scouting Report and Prediction: #7/4 Michigan State 7-0 (3-0) vs. Indiana 4-3 (0-3)

Scouting Report and Prediction: #7/4 Michigan State 7-0 (3-0) vs. Indiana 4-3 (0-3)

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Spartans have all of their attention focused in on the Hoosiers. MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio wasted no time this week making this clear. “Next challenge is Indiana coming in here. I hope our players, after the success we've had around here for the last three or four or five years, our players understand that you get there, and the only thing that matters is that you get there at the end. But that you get there through hard work, perseverance, conviction, and it has to be every single week.”

That is great that Dantonio respects the Hoosiers, but it is time that he unleashes his offense. IU Coach Wilson isn’t interested in just losing close. He wants to win and he knows he has to throw and score. Does Dantonio take his foot off the gas for an entire game?

For Indiana Head Coach Kevin Wilson, he has tremendous respect for the Spartans as a program and as coaches. “Michigan State's very, very good, always are. Very sound structurally, O and D. Tremendous players. One of the longest winning streaks in the country, seventh in the nation right now and probably getting slighted, because they win every week. I think they've won 11 games, 10 or 11 games four of the last five years, beaten top programs, won bowl games, won championship games.”

He continued, “Coach Dantonio and his staff is awesome, they've got good players. It's going to be a strong challenge for us. We look forward to it, expect our guys as coaches, me and our players to have a great week and go up and play as hard as we can and go after Michigan State, then do our best to bring that brass spittoon back here to Bloomington.”

I have the Spartans on UPSET ALERT this week. MSU has its hands full according to reality and history and I’ll have more on that later.

When MSU has the ball…

Up until just around the halfway point of 2013 the entire tenure of Mark Dantonio was marked by an offense that played not to lose more than playing to win. I have been critical, and fairly may I add, of the MSU play calling in that time. Then about the midway point of the 2013 season up until the Cotton Bowl MSU unleased the beast and had among the nation’s best. Coming into this year there was no reason to doubt that would not continue. Certainly it was safe to assume that after one and a half years Coach D had learned his lesson.

This season the Spartans have gone backwards. Many have taken my criticism of the MSU play calling as an attack on OC Dave Warner. That would NOT be fair. Coach D is the leader of this program.

I know FOR A FACT that when he was unhappy with the play calling of Dan Roushar (former OC) he took it over for a limited amount of time. He is allowing this. You can’t blame Dave Warner for doing what his boss wants. The Spartans are playing it safe and yes they are 7-0, but they needed a miracle to beat a UM team that they are better than. Look at how they came out in the first quarter and the way they admittedly “abandoned” the running game in the fourth quarter and turned Cook loose.

If the Spartans had lost last weekend, the narrative would have been that the coaches cost MSU the game, not the players. Dave Warner and Jim Bollman turned loose have proven they can do the job. Dantonio must unleash it or demand it. Either way this is on Dantonio. He is a great coach, but he must learn from Saban who admitted after he left MSU that his conservative offensive style had cost him in the past.

Here is what Saban said, “In my first few years as the head coach at Michigan State, I was much too conservative on offense.  I thought you could win with a solid defense and a stable, but not aggressive offense. We lost five games that year-games that we might have had a better shot at if we’d tried to win on offense. It took two years, but I learned my mistake and learned from the consequences.”   (Nick Saban How Good Do You Want To Be? Page 70)

Michigan State QB Connor Cook has the respect of the Hoosiers. Their goal is going to see if his coaches will let him outscore the Hoosiers. Wilson swooned over Cook this week saying, “It's a function of Coach Dantonio and their program, because he's effective because of all the players around him. Tremendous in defense, mature offensive line. Their receivers, I remember, what, three or four years ago, maybe five when they started, had all these young guys that couldn't catch. Now you got three guys that are making some -- in their Rutgers game they made some unbelievable competitive one-on-one plays where Connor put it right where he had to put it. Guy is covered as well as you could be recovered and you've got multiple skill receivers making plays. He's got really good running game. One, he's a very, very good player, and he's going to be a pro. But he is successful because he's able to manage a really good team that plays together; they kick it good.”

He continued with the praise for the Spartans signal caller, “Connor Cook is a great, great player. They got many great players, Shilique Calhoun. Several of they are their receivers. O linemen, D linemen. They're awesome, but the real deal is he's just managing the program that Coach Dantonio has got in place. And as we move forward, that's what we're trying to get to, because that's a program that we respect and admire and love the way they play. And we just gotta keep building and get our program to play with the effort and the intensity and to function the way they function to win close games, you know, and keep doing things to close things out.”

He added, “With those 52 points I counted up we've now -- I've got 18 games in my mind that we've scored 27 points and lost. Those 18 games we've averaged 35. So we gotta keep finding ways to kick it better, play good defense, not turn it over and score enough. We're leaving football games on the field that we need to win. Ultimately we're getting better. We like the direction we're going. But you need to win. And this is a winning football team that needs to win, we gotta work hard and try and get one against a great team this weekend.”

MSU must come out and score points. This has been the narrative for years as teams continually load the box against MSU and their desire to run to the ball. Against IU who is among the nation’s best passing attacks, IT IS MANDATORY this week. Until Coach Dantonio shows me he is willing to go back to Midway 2013 and 2014 form, I can’t see a blowout.

MSU should be able to run; IU is terrible against it. But if they load the box which they should, will MSU finally allow Cook to audible out and pass? If MSU goes to the air, just like every game this year outside of Oregon, they win and will run for big yards. If not, this is a nail biter IF the Hoosiers can stack the box and stop them.

When MSU is on defense…

The Spartans have traditionally prided themselves on the defensive backfield. Dantonio knows what the Hoosiers are bringing and Dantonio realizes his two true freshmen safeties are going to be in the cross hairs. He said, “Well, we've got good players, first of all. We have got guys with good deep ball judgment. We have guys who can tackle on the edge. I was impressed with how Grayson Miller and Khari Willis played as true freshmen in that environment. So they are only going to continue to get more accustomed and feel better about -- not as much anxiety, and they are very level-headed.”

Spartan fans get ready. I respect Kevin Wilson, the IU coach. He is an offensive savant. A genius. He could care less if he losses by 30.  He wants to win. He won’t come here trying to keep it close. He will throw 80 times if he has to and we all know that the Spartans’ Achilles heel is on the passing defense.

MSU, even in bad weather, is going to face among the nation’s best passing attacks led by one of the most underrated QB’s in the nation. Nate Sudfeld has a 12/3 TD to INT ratio and completes 65% of his passes. He is one of the smartest QBs in the nation and the young man has a great future career as a coach. He is not only a great QB, but another coach on the field.

I guarantee you he is seeing dreams of the MSU defensive backfield while he sleeps. IU will run the ball to simply keep MSU unable to play off the line of scrimmage, but Sudfeld will have his Hoosiers loaded and ready to attack. He is a stone cold killer, and among the Nation’s top 10 QBs. Only because of playing on a team with such terrible defense does he lack national attention.
Intangibles…

The Spartan special teams are in shambles. SHAMBLES. Something I thought I would NEVER write about a Dantonio led team.  He has said since day one that special teams is the most important part of the game.

Sunday night Mark Dantonio entered the special teams’ room and let them have it (something I know that has not been reported by anyone else). According to a member of the MSU staff, “Coach D lit it up,” and drove the point home that they had to have “consistency.”

You saw last week that Dantonio had zero faith (regardless of public claims) in his place kicker by refusing to kick when given the chance.

I add this for you to ponder. Jake Hartbarger was AWESOME in games one-four, struggled in game five and six, and was benched essentially last week. Why is he degenerating?

Kevin Cronin was amazing last year and has struggled this entire year. Why is he degenerating? Taybor Pepper is an All American, one of only two long snappers in college football that TWO scouts have told me they are watching close, and has struggled recently. Why is he degenerating?

Michael Geiger was the number one place kicker in the nation for his recruiting class and his freshman year was among the nation’s best place kickers IF NOT the best. Last year he had some struggles and this year is nothing short of BAD. Again, why is he degenerating?

All great kids. All super people, all talented, and all going backwards. If it is one kid I get it. If it is all of them, that rests on coaching. They are degenerating. The coaches wanted these kids and they have all proven they can do it. Dantonio has a major problem, he has admitted it, and he alone has to find the root of the issue and fix it. Is it as simple as lighting them up on a Sunday night or is it bigger? Not sure, but he has to fix it.

Extra Point…

MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio has his team in an interesting spot. I said that his coaches could cost MSU the game last week and they almost did with the offensive play calling. This week that is certainly in play BUT the Spartans must deal with a letdown.

In 2001 TJ Duckett made a great catch to beat UM. That moment was ethereal and the very next week still riding high on emotion they lost to Indiana.

Dantonio said that things are different under his reign. “It's all about handling success I think, and it will paint the picture of our record. After big games, after wins and losses after big games, we'll paint the picture of what we have been, and the standard that is expected. And I can't remember that number right off the top of my head, but it's -- I don't know whether it's 26-6 or 27-6, I'm not sure. But it's pretty -- it's high. So to me, the worst -- obviously the worst thing we can do is fall backwards here, so we need to continue to move forward and you know, our dreams are ahead of us, and they start this Saturday. So I think our players will be ready to play.”

I asked Dantonio specifically about that 2001 scenario and he said, “Obviously it can happen. Indiana has an outstanding football team. I think they are extremely well-coached. Kevin Wilson does an unbelievable job. They have a big-time quarterback in Sudfeld who leads the league in passing. Very, very capable wide receiver, big play guy out there, talented tailbacks. Defense is playing better. They are extremely capable. They have played -- their football games are 4-3 right now. Every single game has been extremely competitive.”

He continued, “They probably, for sure, could have won -- they could have beaten Ohio State. They probably could very easily be 6-1 from the scores, certainly, and the Penn State game was much closer than it appeared. Their quarterbacks were dinged up. Sudfeld was not playing and Diamont was knocked out of the game, as well. So they were on their third quarterback that game. We expect a very, very good football game. I think they are, as I said, I think it will be a great challenge for us. Always have been. We've played them every year.

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game. MSU can’t help IU. They are a team that will capitalize on Spartan mistakes. Their defense is terrible, but their offense is spectacular.

Prediction…

Tico Duckett said 34-17, TJ Duckett says 28-17 and I say make it 35-34: MSU wins! Former Indiana great and my good buddy Jodie Clemons said 28-24 IU.