Scouting Report and Prediction: #8 Michigan State 9-2 (6-1) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions 6-5 (2-5)

A look at this week’s opponent… The Nittany Lions are an underwhelming 6-5 (2-5) and I know several key Penn State people who have serious buyer’s

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Nittany Lions are an underwhelming 6-5 (2-5) and I know several key Penn State people who have serious buyer’s remorse on new coach James Franklin. I made the statement when he was hired that it was a bad move by PSU and I am more convinced now than before. His time at PSU will not end well.

A win over MSU on Saturday would make their season. Despite my dislike personally and as a coach for Franklin, they are a super football power, have amazing fans, and I personally know enough of their players to say they have great kids. BUT, fish rot from the head and the head of this Lion is now what the PSU faithful are used to.

Franklin needs this win. He is desperate and the Spartans have to grasp the enormity of this game before it starts. Rutgers and Maryland were both teams not as good as MSU, neither is PSU, but with much better players.

PSU and Nebraska are similar in that both teams have very good players (significantly better at Nebraska), but have poor coaching. In fairness to Bo and his staff at Nebraska, my dislike for them stops at the coaching box. For Franklin, I don’t like him personally either. If MSU was taking this game lightly, they would be on upset alert. I don’t think that is the case.

When MSU has the ball…

The Lions are going to set out to stop the run. They have a very solid rush D. MSU won’t line up and just run the ball down their throat with the Lions loading the box. MSU can run against them, but they will need to use their aerial attack to do it.

They are going to have to force the Lions out of the box. This is a game we should see more of the TE usage in the passing game. PSU on film has spent a lot of time trying to double up the wide outs. If they want to use that bracket coverage, any of the MSU TE’s across the middle can kill them.

The PSU defense is stout, but nowhere near as good as the best the Spartans have played. They will score points. This is about the Spartans and NOT the Lions.

PSU head coach James Franklin said of the Spartans offense, “On offense, Dave Warner and Coach Bollman do a really good job. Great experience, seven starters, multiple pro offense, very balanced. Again, one of the things that jumps out to you, their quarterback is having a great year, but he's playing behind a really, really strong, physical, massive offensive line that does a great run game and also does a great job protecting them as well. That allows them to be balanced. Number six in the nation in scoring offense, No. 7 in the nation in total offense, No. 11 in fewest turnovers. No. 1 in the Big Ten in passing offense. Connor Cook is having a great year. Running back Jeremy Langford is having a really, really good year, and then you've got wide receiver, No. 14, Tony Lippett is having a great year as well. Special teams in Coach Tressel. They're number 8 in the Big Ten in punting. Long, rangy, consistent with their schemes. Been very, very impressed with what they do as well.”

When MSU is on defense…

The Spartan defense is what it is. The PSU offense has some good weapons and an elite QB, but their schemes and coaching make Nebraska’s offensive staff look elite. MSU will dial up pressure at weak points to make Christian Hackenberg have less time to think.

Make no mistake, Hackenberg is an ELITE player. But it’s like having an amazing NASCAR driver with a car like a Hyundai fresh off the show room floor. His staff has not helped him. Whereas the previous staff was loaded with top tier talent, this one is not. No one has paid for that more than Hackenberg.

PSU Head Coach James Franklin said of the MSU D, “Coach Narduzzi, the defensive coordinator, it's his 8th year there. I think the consistency you see on their staff and in their program has been significant for them in the rise of their program. Three straight seasons where they've had the No. 1 defense in the Big Ten. They're a 4 3 team. Quarters in the secondary with two run support safeties and they press you on the outside. You're pretty much one on one because those safeties are run players. Probably the most similar defense that I've seen to Alabama in terms of body type and model.”

He went on to add, “D line is really long, linebackers are long. You look at the DBs and almost everybody is over six foot. They run to the ball extremely well. They're very physical. They're number 1 in the nation in turnover margin, number three in the nation in turnover gains recovered. Number eight in the nation in rushing defense, and number 15 in sacks. Number 1 in the Big Ten in defensive touchdowns. They force 61 three and outs. This is a good defense we're facing. Obviously, No. 89, Shilique Calhoun, the defensive end, I always go back and look where really good players come from. He's a kid from New Jersey. It's interesting, wasn't an overly highly recruited guy. Obviously, he was a good player, but I'm always interested to see where these guys come from and how they develop. I think they do a great job of developing guys as well. Linebacker No. 43, Davis, a really productive player for them, and then the safety, No. 27, Kurtis Drummond.”

PSU is among the best passing because they have to be. MSU will not pressure Hackenberg all day. They will play their base, but when they come charging, they will go at him. PSU’s rushing attack is nothing of concern, but anything that involves Hackenberg is.

Intangibles…

The Spartans are a better team. Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

The Spartans have a lot of players, many highly sought after, from the Keystone state. Dantonio was quick to praise his Pennsylvania players. “Very good players from there. I don't really want to miss anybody, but Paul Lang is a tight end from Mt. Lebanon who has been a factor, especially in the second half of the year. Obviously, Demetrious Cox has been a guy for us here, and he's got two more years. He's a redshirt sophomore and he's an outstanding player. He has so far played safety, nickel back, and corner for us. He's playing a lot of football for us down the stretch and is involved in all the special teams. I think he can be a dynamic player. We have Delton Williams who's got a major part in this program as a tailback, third tailback. I think he probably has about 50 carries, but he played as a true freshman last year and made his mark. “

He continued, “Damion Terry is going to be an excellent player. I think he can be an impact player on this program at some time at quarterback.”

He loves one of his new weapons. “Montae Nicholson right now has gotten on the field and started three games for us and plays every game. You'll see No. 9 out there making plays out there on special teams, and then he is going to play defensive snaps throughout every football game. We've made a commitment to doing that and he gets better and better and better. Casey Schreiner is a non-scholarship guy that's working extremely hard. I think that covers it, but I'm not quite sure. Brandon Clemons is from the east side of PA, and he is another guy that's played offense, defense, and he's playing on both sides of the ball, too. These next two years he's going to be a factor on our offensive line. He just moved there this past camp.”

This game is also about recruiting and Dantonio knows the importance of Pennsylvania to the Spartans. He said, “I think we want to have a presence in Western PA and Pennsylvania in general. We've been able to recruit good players out of there. It's a great state for high school football. I think the Big 10 is in that state, and we've had success bringing guys over here and they've played for us. If you look at that roster and the people I just talked about, everybody is playing for us. They've been successful here.”

Prediction…

PSU has some super fans. They are among the nation’s best. In the Sandusky scandal they were let down by their heroes and their school. They were taken for granted. They have great players. This is not what the program was and frankly, they have taken a step back since Bill O’Brien left for the NFL. This shouldn’t be pretty.

To me, this game is simple. Great players and environment means despite coaching the Lions are dangerous if MSU lets them hang around. If the Spartans come in with a ‘taking care of business approach,’ they dominate. In the end, I think MSU minimizes the mistakes and I say MSU wins this 38-10.