Scouting Report and Prediction: #9 Michigan State 9-1 (5-1) vs. #3 Ohio State 10-0 (6-0)

A look at this week’s opponent… This is the biggest game of the year. We all knew it as soon as the Cotton Bowl ended and everyone in the nation,

A look at this week’s opponent…

This is the biggest game of the year. We all knew it as soon as the Cotton Bowl ended and everyone in the nation, regardless of affiliation, had this game circled to watch on this weekend. It is a monster with both teams’ goals sitting out in the open. The losing team, regardless of who it is, will have a season that no matter how it finishes out is a disappointment.

The Spartans enter the game with all of their goals still ahead of them, but according to Head Coach Mark Dantonio they are playing the best team in all of football. “We are in control of our opportunities. Ohio State, you know, National Champions last year, and I think they were the best football team in the nation. I think they understand who they are, they execute, they don't get too mixed up, they execute, and, you know, they're extremely successful because of those aspects. Fundamental football. Run the ball, exploit you with the pass, make you pay down the field, hit you with the deep ball. Special teams are excellent, as I said, defensively attacking, and if you look at them statistically across the board, you will see that they're very near the top in the Big Ten in almost every statistic.”

Urban Meyer, the head coach of The Ohio State Buckeyes, is 48-3 leading them into games, but he has high praise of the Spartans saying earlier this week, “Most prepared team. Very, very good team we're playing, and we've had some great games with them. Lot of respect for the way they play, and their personnel, because they're outstanding.”

Despite Dantonio being from Ohio and having won a national title as their DC there is no love loss between Dantonio and Meyer, this rivalry is deep and personal for both of them. The baggage runs deep in recruiting and every area off the field you can imagine. There is respect, but I certainly think a healthy mutual dislike.

I do not think the Buckeyes have played well. In fact, they have struggled like MSU with poor offensive play calling, and unlike the Spartans, they have played at times looking bored. Can they just turn it on like a switch? Some teams, albeit a single digit minority can. We do not know if they are one of them. Facing a team that won’t quit in MSU and one who can match on a talent level at so many places on the field, what will they do? The Spartans are not Indiana or other teams that do not have the depth to go four quarters with them.

When MSU has the ball…

MSU will not enter Ohio Stadium and run the ball down the Buckeyes throat. That does not mean they can’t run. If the Spartans do what they have done all year (other than Nebraska), they will lose. Period. MSU must use a pass to run approach and then run when they want and not when they must. Regardless of Cook’s health, I do not expect him to be 100%, this game is more about play calling and strategy than how healthy Cook’s arm is or a backup.

Again, I expect Cook to play, but not to be 100%.

Against the Spartans, Urban Meyer is feeling good. He likes the D he has. “Our defense has gotten better and better and better. You win championships with great defense. We've proven that. That's time tested. It's an unusual situation when a team can compete for a championship with a bad defense.”
Co-OC Dave Warner has spent a ton of time this week breaking down the OSU D and says they aren’t much different from last year. “Not a whole lot. A lot of those same guys are back. They are only stronger, meaner and more experienced so they are going to be a great challenge. Very talented obviously, they’ve got some guys up front that are big and strong. That is going to cause us some problems there. The linebackers are aggressive and run well and on the back end their secondary is talented as well. They’ve done a good job locking people down on the back end. This is without a doubt a challenge and again when you compare them to last year they are doing the same stuff, but I think they are doing it better.”

Spartan All American center and Captain Jack Allen knows that whether it is passing or running, this OSU team has the best DL they have faced this year. How big of a challenge is it Jack? “I would say it's going to be a huge challenge. They have a very impressive defensive front, but at the same time I think we're starting to click on the "O" line and we're coming together, and we've gone through a lot of adversity together, and this is just going to be another challenge for us, and we're excited about it.”

This game is a gut check. Mark Dantonio is playing with house money. They are the underdog and his team must come out throwing haymakers and attack. OSU is good, but not unbeatable and certainly not as good as they think they are.

When MSU is on defense…

Michigan State lost last year to the Buckeyes when they couldn’t control the run. Mark Dantonio understands that this game even more than his young defensive backfield rests on his defensive line. Dantonio made that VERY clear this week. “We've got to win up front. We've got to stop the run up front and being able to play the big play-action passes, as well, explosive plays, limit explosive plays.”

Dantonio also said of the DL, “I think this game is usually won -- probably won in a couple of ways, turnovers, obviously any game turnovers are a huge deal, then you gotta win it up front. I think they promote toughness on their football team, defensively, offensively, in all areas, but especially up front. Then I think we do the same here. But I don't think there is any secret that they want to run the football, and we do, too; stay balanced along with that. So the game sort of becomes dependent on those guys up front winning, and there's all different kind of ways to win up front, whether it's -- linebackers are involved and things of that nature, support from the secondary, all these different aspects.”

Meyer says that the emerging Spartan defense is back to the Spartan Dawg swag and that is a concern. “I think Coach Dantonio would be the first one to tell you it's Michigan State's defense, and they're running a very high level against -- who did they play? They played Maryland, and I think it was 80 snaps, 65 or 70 blitzes. So it was very aggressive, and they're not normally that aggressive, but that's kind of putting us on our toes.”

Meyer looks back at the win last year over Michigan State and while others saw a beat down, he saw a Buckeye team that had their best game of the year on that side of the ball. “That was our best game offensively, by far. We threw for over 300. We ran against not a good defense, a great defense. That was, you know, you just kind of watch. We're not there right now. We've got to get there fast when you start playing teams like this and a talented team like this. My goodness, J.T. was ridiculous. Our receivers played great. The offensive line blocked that defensive line, and once again, not a good defense, a great defense.”

I asked Spartan Captain and a young man playing VERY well this season, Darien Harris, about losing against the run last year and how critical it is to win that battle and to get a win in Columbus. He said, “It's big-time, both stopping Elliot and Barrett. They do a great job staying behind their blockers, staying tight to the gaps they are supposed to hit. So we got to be incredibly sound in that aspect on defense and I would definitely agree that last year when they were able to establish the run that's what the pass opened up. We had them in a lot of third down and 2, third down and 3, third down and short yardage situations and they were able to muscle it forward for the first down, whether it was with Barrett keeping the ball or handing it off to Ezekiel. So they pride themselves on being able to pound the ball up front, and we pride ourselves on our front seven as well so, I'm expecting a really good battle on Saturday.”

Co-DC Mike Tressel knows that to beat the Buckeyes you have to win at the line of scrimmage. Something that is easier said than done. He broke down why their OL is so good. “They move you as good as anybody. Their goal is to make interior defensive linemen quit. You can tell that’s the case. We have to challenge our guys with that. But we also have to fill very fast as linebackers so they can’t stay on the double-teams. We also have to blitz, so they can’t stay on those double-teams. So we have to do some things to help those guys out.”

If OSU is running all over the Spartans the game is over. Because they sell out to stop the run, they will throw. Hopefully, MSU will blitz nearly 80% of the time, because even when OSU passes, both of their QB’s are prone to bad decisions when having to make quick judgement reads.

Pressure, pressure, and more pressure in the OSU backfield is how the Spartans win tomorrow.

Intangibles…

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

I have been around Spartan football for nearly most (not all) of my time on earth; decades. I can tell you that I don’t know how to read it, but this is the loosest I have a seen a Spartan team in any sport prior to such a monster game.

Connor Cook addressed the disrespect sent the Spartans way earlier this week in what I thought was an outstanding way. He said, “You know, same story, different week. You know, no one really gives us the kind of respect that we deserve that we think we need. Just another reason why we've said it thousands and thousands of times, it seems like, the chip on your shoulder. Provides more motivation to us. My shoulder is good, I'm going to be ready to go so there is no issue with that. I mean, I say just like I said, same story, different week. People not giving us the respect, we like being in the situation we're in. We like being the underdog, because you know, majority of time, we come out on top. So we're going to embrace it, and we will be ready to go, that's for sure.”

Warner understands that last year is over, but Cook was able to have great success when he was turned loose vs. the Buckeyes. “You look at last year’s game, we just felt like we executed very well. And we haven’t done that this year. Although we’ve thrown the ball well. We ran the ball well against them last year and threw it well against them. And we’ve got to try to duplicate that. Like I said, I’m not sure we’ve put both those things together, run and pass, this year in any one game like we did last year. Certainly that’s been our goal, but I’m not sure we’ve achieved that yet.”

MSU needs to stay out of its own way. Their D is good enough to win, but not on their own. OSU will score and MSU can’t waste possessions. They must attack from the moment the plane lands in Columbus.

 

Extra Point…

This is gut check time. Dantonio has done a superior job of getting the point across to his team that all of their goals are still ahead of them. “The object is to get to the championship game. So the first goal that we have to accomplish is to win the east. And I know if we win the next two games, we win the east. That's the only things that we can control right now. Then beyond that you take the next step. The next step is to win outright the Big Ten Championship, and then you try and take the next step. So you have to go in order, I think to get to where we want to go.”

Last week the Spartans blitzed nearly 70 of the 80 Maryland snaps. Tressel says despite OSU having time to adjust to it, they must continue that attack. “Now this week, we know Ohio State watched that, and they’ll probably come back with a bunch of screens and quick passes and things like that to offset the blitzes, but we’re going to stay aggressive.”

Mark Dantonio is 5-1 against top 10 teams as the head coach of MSU. He says there is a special reason. “I think we can play. I think we have the talent to play with the Top-10 teams in the country, I do. I believe that. I do think our guys get motivated for it, and this is another challenge, but I also think our guys respect who they're playing against, every single time. They respect their opponents, and we prepare very, very hard, for it. But we've got good players. We have to play consistently. I don't think we have yet to put our best game in front of us, play our best game, where we're hitting on all cylinders. We played close to a couple of games to that but we've got to play our best football game this Saturday if we are going to be successful; I truly believe that. But I do think that that's -- I think that we're very, very capable.”

Captain and star DE Shilique Calhoun addressed why the Spartans are 5-1 against top 10 teams. “I would say it's a combination of coaching and players doing their jobs. You know, we go out there, compete, at a high level, we do the best that we can each and every game, and that's all Coach asks of us, and I think with that being said, that's produced, you know, winning games for us because we understand that. We're going to keep competing until there is no more time left on the clock and offensively and defensively and even on the special teams we compete we compete day in and day out, and it's not only in games we do that in practice, also, so it puts us in a great situation where we can have a better outcome, and our team can be better successful.”

Prediction…

Earlier this week on Spartan Nation Radio my good buddy Joe Rexrode from the Detroit Free Press said 37-30 OSU, on Spartan Nation TV Tico Duckett said 35-28 MSU, TJ Duckett said 45-35 MSU, and I think the Spartans offense won’t attack enough and OSU wins it 37-35.