The Outlook Moving Forward: Indiana

Coming off their 27-23 win over the Michigan Wolverines, the Spartans return home to take on the Indiana Hoosiers at 3:30 on ABC.

Offense

The Spartan Offense did not have a great game against Michigan, but they did finish strong. Hopefully that can serve as a turning point for this unit. It seemed like MSU got in its own way until the circumstances of the game forced them to open it up. MSU was incredibly predictable on 1st Down, running the ball far too often for not very many yards. At their worst last Saturday, the Spartans play calling reminded Spartan Nation of the worst Perles and Saban times when predictability was sky high and results so low and frustrating. When it gets to the point, for the second week straight, that the TV color man (Chris Spielman last week) starts pointing out that MSU is making a mistake by running the ball about 75% of the time on 1st Down overall, let alone against the best Defense they’ve faced all year, it’s time to take a step back and revaluate.

Last week in The Outlook we discussed how MSU needed to avoid being run-first-stubborn, or would risk an unproductive day for this unit. For some inexplicable reason, the Spartans did just that and rushed for only 58 yards on the day. Divide that by 33 carries and you get an abysmal 1.75 yards per carry. Had MSU thrown the ball more often on 1st Down their rushing numbers would’ve probably been far better. The Offense looked like it didn’t understand the old analogy about trying to jam a square peg into a round hole.

MSU had other ground game issues at Michigan. The Spartans failed to get Connor Cook running early and often enough to make Michigan account for that threat. When Cook finally ran, it created a spark of MSU momentum, and a chunk of controversy as Joe Bolden (aka the stake thrower from 2014) was flagged and ejected for targeting at the end of the run. The targeting rule was discussed in The Outlook earlier this year. Two plays later, LJ Scott broke free for an 11-yard score, but then strangely disappeared from the lineup.

After the Spartans got the ball back, down 10-7, Delton Williams came into the game. That did not seem fair to either back, nor did it work out well for MSU. Williams had an awful series, gained only a few yards running, and missed a blocking assignment on a 3rd Down that got Cook sacked for a loss of 10, waving goodbye to MSU’s hopes of a big drive to finish the Half. Perhaps Mark Dantonio is asking too much of Dave Warner to call plays and be responsible for managing the Running Back rotation. Taking Scott out after running for a score and putting Williams into that situation seemed destined to fail, and stood out to many as a mistake a Top 5 team wouldn’t make in that situation.

Tight End is a position of strength for MSU, yet the Spartans only completed one 7-yard pass to one all day. As discussed in The Outlook earlier in the year, MSU’s Tight End talent will only become a true advantage if it's utilized. That playing group will remain under utilized if they’re not thrown to until later in the games, but Tight End is not the only position that’s yet to be set up best for success. Just look at the Wide outs that continue to take handoffs.

This east-west staple (possibly the Football version of the Basketball "Spartan Weave") of the 84th ranked Rushing Offense in the country should probably be forgotten for the rest of 2015, at least against better opponents. It’s yet to work very well, and does not do a very good job of placing RJ Shelton or the other Spartan Wide Outs in their best position to succeed.

With the MSU Offense getting in its own way so often, how have they had any success? Well, Connor Cook. When forced by the score and the game clock to open it up last week, Cook started doing his thing.  After Aaron Burbridge got off to a dominant start early, Cook tried to spread the ball around late and was pretty much awesome. Some receivers caught balls they could have, but did not catch them all as we saw on MSU’s final drive. The bottom line was that after Cook was unleashed, the Offense began to move. After being outplayed and outcoached for three quarters, MSU outgained the Blue 134 to 24 in the 4th and it could’ve been an even wider margin. That result was because of Cook, and it’s time this Offense changes its recipe a bit to better fit the Cook.

Injuries aside, the Spartans have the 63rd ranked Scoring Offense in America. A tougher schedule (ranked 43rd to date) than some have yet to acknowledge, we all believe that this Offense should be better than 72nd in the country. Do you think we’re overrating the talent and experience level of this group? Last year this was a Top-10 unit. This year, with so much coming back, they’ve played nowhere near that level for the most part. Injuries have been a factor, but they’ve gotten in their own way quite a bit. That's on Mark Dantonio first and on the Co-Coordinators second.

It’s an amazing thing when you can say the # 4 team in the country is struggling on Offense. That’s how talented the Michigan State Offense is in 2015. Any game now, MSU is expected to break out and hang 45 or more on an opponent. Yet, they've actually been trending in the opposite direction. Unless the coaches do a better job putting the Spartans in position to succeed, an incredible patch work job to the Offensive Line will end up wasted, MSU will continue to look stubborn and stale, and the Spartans Offense will continue to underperform.

MSU has more than enough talent on Offense to compete for a Playoff spot. MSU has arguably the best Quarterback in school history playing at the top of his game right now, but they’re not getting anywhere near the level of production out of this unit that they should be. That’s not going to change until the Coaching Staff takes a hard look at what they’ve been doing and figures out the adjustments that are needed. If they don’t, this unit will continue to struggle and underperform relative to their high talent level and standards, which would be a real shame.

Expect on a predictable, sluggish, and unimpressive day from the Spartan Offense against Indiana. They may well look like a team that’s heading into a bye week, content to get to that break before trying any significant changes. Indiana just gave up 55 to Rutgers, at home. They have the 118th worst Total Defense in the country and feature the 106th rated Scoring Defense, giving up an average of 35-points per game. It’s time for the Spartan Offense to get off the ground and take flight for the stretch run.

Defense

What an effort from the Spartan Dawgs up front last week. Led by Michigan natives and an edge rusher from New Jersey that earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors, the Spartans stayed in the game by winning up front on the Defensive Line. Had Michigan got their running game going, it’s safe to say there would’ve been no chance for “Shoeless Watts-Jackson’s” magical moment. MSU held U of M to 62 yards rushing on 33 carries, which should be their lowest rushing output of 2015.

The Spartans Defense got stronger and more confident as the night went on. Featuring two True-Freshmen at Safety, Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel had their coming out party because Michigan had been rolling over opponents and was supposedly on the way to the College Football Playoff if you believed the bulk of the media last week. Had MSU’s Defense not done a stellar job stopping the run, the Spartans would’ve been unable to stay close. Though Jake Rudock played decent for most of the day, he ended up only 15-25 passing and had under 175-yards.

Now it’s up to the new era Spartan Dawgs to take the momentum from the Michigan game forward. They are starting to find another gear up front, which is clearly the strength of this unit. If MSU can keep their energy level close to where it was Saturday they will be in position by mid-November to play near a championship level. As Spartan Nation knows, a championship level Defense brings it each and every week, not just for rivalry games.

Indiana is without Tevin Coleman, but not without a top talent. IU ranks 40th in Rushing Offense right now behind Jordan Howard. Howard is a transfer from the defunct UAB program. He finished 10th in the country in rushing in 2014. He is not Coleman, but is far from an easy stop for MSU.

Passing wise, the Hoosiers have found enough success to build the 25th ranked Passing Offense in the country. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld (now a Senior) is leading the 23rd Total Offense well enough to average 34-points per game through seven. They scored their way through a soft non-conference slate, put up only 7-points at Penn State, but pushed Ohio State at home scoring 27 on the day.

Coming of a 606-yard effort against Rutgers, expect IU to move the ball on MSU in a far different fashion than we’ve seen in recent weeks. If the Spartans can carry over their heightened intensity up front they will make it much harder for Indiana to get in rhythm. Though it sounds simple, it’s going to take 60 full minutes of top notch effort. The key to taking care of business against Indiana and winning a game that the # 4 team in the country should is slowing down the potentially potent Indiana Offense.

Special Teams

This unit was pretty much a disaster Saturday until the final play, which cannot be celebrated enough. The unforgettable final play will go down in Spartan history as one of the best ever. Jalen Watts-Jackson went “Shoeless Watts-Jackson” on his way to the End Zone for the most improbable score in school history. Just as Michigan’s Blake O'Neill didn’t deserve all the blame for fumbling the Punt, you can bet Watts-Jackson would be the first to share the credit with his teammates for helping make the "Michigan State Miracle" happen.

It wasn’t all O'Neill, it wasn’t all Shoeless Watts-Jackson, and it wasn’t all the Spartans that made that magical play happen. Though Jim Harbaugh didn’t seem in the mood to take much of blame for what happened to end Saturday’s game, maybe he should have. After all, the Wolverines looked shaky on a couple punts earlier Saturday, so why wasn’t O'Neill told to just fall on the ball if the final snap didn’t get to his hands easily? Why didn’t someone else line up back there that could pooch it down the field? Why did Michigan send guys downfield when MSU had no one back, with only 10 seconds left? Why didn’t anyone in Blue correct Michigan’s misalignment before the Spartans came flying after the snap? All that and more is on Harbaugh. He failed to do a good job of managing the downside of that play, reminding us of Pete Carroll at the end of last year’s Super Bowl. Still, the Spartans have their own enormous Special Teams issues to address this week.

It’s not clear that Michigan State has a kicker right now. Not a Place Kicker, not a Punter, not a Kick Off specialist. They’ve got people in uniform, some who’ve had great success in the past, but they don’t have an identity right now or enough leadership kicking the ball. They made things worse for themselves Saturday with an ill timed fake punt attempt.

Tyler O’Connor can punt the ball if needed, but probably not at the Division 1 level on a regular basis. Everyone watching the Spartans knew O’Connor would be part of a fake at some point, but the decision to call it when MSU did Saturday didn’t make much sense. The Spartan Defense was starting to hum and the down and distance did not seem right because O’Connor needed to run more than 7-yards for the 1st Down. Making things worse, O’Connor didn’t recognize that Monty Mandaris was open for 1st Down clinching pass, but maybe that’s because O’Connor isn’t used to running plays out of a punt formation. Expect Jake Hartbarger to return to fulltime punting duties here soon. O’Connor’s poise may have been a positive at Michigan but MSU’s best punting foot forward from here is Hartbarger's.

Kicking off a tee and trying Field Goals may be a different situation. The Spartans don’t appear to have many options kicking right now and shouldn’t actually need any new ones if they can steer Michael Geiger back on track. At this point it’s probably about managing when to kick more than anything. They should have a pretty good understanding of Geiger’s Field Goal range right now, so don't expect to see many tries of 40-yards or more the rest of the year.

As discussed last week and further affirmed before the game’s final snap, Special Teams Coordinator Mark Snyder is probably in over his head. Whether it’s Snyder or this group of players, it’s not working well and it’s not going to work long term. Mark Dantonio must take an “all hands on deck” approach to patching together a Special Teams unit for November that will not harm MSU as much as it has this season. Expecting this unit to flip into a field position changing, clutch group of high producers looks too farfetched. If such an about face could happen, however, it would naturally start with an all-time game winning miracle against the Dantonio Spartans arch rival. Once “Shoeless Watts-Jackson” gets well, there will be plenty of Spartan Nation calls for him to take a well deserved bow.

Overall

Michigan State is known as a program of closers these days. It’s not just the “Shoeless Watts-Jackson” miracle, the Cotton Bowl comeback, or Little Giants. Nor is it just Connor Cook, Jeremy Langford, or Mark Dantonio. It’s Michigan State Football, the program that’s closed out more big wins in dramatic fashion than anyone around College Football in recent years. The days of negative media themes and tired old narratives about Spartan Football are long gone, for good. Saturday’s ending just added to the growing lure that Michigan State Football has something special going on when it comes down to the final moments of a big game...also known as closing time.

It’s still hard to describe the feeling Spartan Nation had at the end of the Michigan State-Michigan Miracle, but do we have some pretty good video of reactions across the board. ESPN reported that before the final snap MSU had a .2% chance of winning that game. That sounds like an incredible overstatement. Two out of a thousand, maybe, but who’s ever seen anything end like that? None of the millions watching (in Michigan Stadium and as a part of an ESPN record viewing audience) saw a possibility for MSU to pull off that kind of magic. The result will not only shape the remainder of both teams' 2015, but will leave a permanent mark on the rivalry and one heck of a scar on the Michigan Football program that will not go away. It’s not that a program can’t get past that kind of loss, it’s just that the scar never goes away. They will be forced to work around it just as Michigan State, USC, Alabama, and the rest of the nation’s premier programs have in the past.

The Spartans don’t need to move on from the scoop and score miracle, they need to move forward. This is their chance to shift 2015 into a higher gear. They have yet to look dominant against an opponent all year and their last three wins have been less than convincing. Winning on the road against a ranked team that was supposedly on its way to a Playoff berth should ultimately count for a lot, but as Mark Dantonio reminded everyone not long after that, each game on the Spartans’ schedule only counts one. Indiana is coming up to East Lansing to spoil all the Spartans’ post-Michigan fun, make no mistake about that.

Indiana was on the cusp of a program win in 2012 when Andrew Maxwell led a 2nd Half comeback and the Spartan Dawgs shut the door on the fleet footed Hoosiers. Indiana has not forgotten, arguably has not recovered, and is coming off an enormous 25- point collapse at home against Rutgers. Maybe they see this as their opportunity for redemption. MSU cannot just show up Saturday afternoon and expect an easy victory, just ask the Spartans of 2001.

After beating Michigan on the final play via Jeff Smoker to T.J. Duckett, MSU lost the following week at home to Antwaan Randle-El and the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana ran for 489 yards, 251 from Levron Williams and just 149 from Randle-El. Anyone who stood on the sidelines or that saw both games would confirm that MSU didn’t show up for Indiana. IU was prepared better, found something that worked, and just scorched the ole "Woodshed" in a game that was not close. Those Spartans lacked the programmatic maturity to move forward from the dramatic win over their bitter rival. You can bet that by this point in the week, the 2015 Spartans know the history of 2001.

Was the “Michigan State Miracle” the peak of 2015, or just the beginning? That’s the question for Spartan Football right now. If they show up and lay an egg Saturday, that’ll cement Michigan as the season’s peak. Pick up where they left off and put together their most dominating performance of 2015, then we’re looking at a team that figured out how to build and carry that momentum into November.

More than Indiana, MSU will be tested by themselves this week. If they live up to the maturity and standards of the program right now, they’ll get to a bye week for some much needed rest to begin preparing the most exciting stretch of November games in decades. If they don't, expect an “Iowa Flat” performance Saturday with MSU grasping for something late to bail them out of a sloppy performance.

Indiana is no time for Spartan Football to be stuck in the recent past or to be looking too far ahead. Either scenario will place MSU in great jeopardy of getting to the bye week with a loss. Championship teams put their best effort forward on a week by week basis. MSU hasn’t played their best football yet in 2015. This week they need to get out of their own way on Offense, keep building momentum and applying pressure on Defense, and transform the Special Teams miracle that won them the Michigan game into a full reset for the worst overall unit of the Dantonio era. If they can do all that they will easily earn the victory over Indiana, and set November up as the time for Spartan Football to reach higher.

P.A.T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. I can’t wait for the College Football Playoff committee to release their first poll on November 3rd because the disconnect between the AP and Coaches Poll has become too much to stomach anymore.
2. The College Football Triangle (Columbus to East Lansing to South Bend to Columbus, with Ann Arbor in the middle) is at the beginning of another golden era. With the resources and Head Coaches currently in place at those four spots, expect the most interesting College Football of any given week to come out that triangle once again. I’ve called that area the College Football Triangle since approximately 2004, but more and more eyeballs are bound to focus on between now and 2020 as it takes the power back from the regressing SEC.
3. According to Dan Wolken of USA Today, the Spartans only got to 7-0 because, in part, “…Rutgers spiked the ball on fourth down...” There’s more ridiculousness in that paragraph of his October 17th column about the Oregon and Michigan wins, but let’s stop there because it’s so factually inaccurate. Rutgers had a 4th and 20 from the 50-yard line, Mr. Wolken. On what planet is that a sure Touchdown if the ball isn’t spiked? This kind of writing is how false media narratives get started. For example, the one from 2014 about Oregon blowing out Michigan State in Eugene. I don’t know who Wolken is but after reading something this inaccurate about the #4 team in the country, why would I look his way again for any kind of football analysis or opinion? I like my football information and discussion to be factually based, and encourage whoever’s still reading this article at this point to do the same.

@JPSpartan