FANTASY FOOTBALL TIPS: WEEK 14

Now a tale from the “Fantasy Football Likes to Kick You in the Nuts” file: The regular season in one of my non-Spartan Nation leagues just ended after

Now a tale from the “Fantasy Football Likes to Kick You in the Nuts” file: The regular season in one of my non-Spartan Nation leagues just ended after week 13. A friend of mine, named James, will not be joining me in the playoffs, however. In week 9, going into the Monday night game James was leading by a few points with only the Pittsburgh defense left to play for him, and his opponent having nobody left. James decided to sit the Steelers’ D, just in case they got negative points that week. Well, the Steelers went on to score 10 points, and even without them James still got the win. Why is this important? James finished tied for the 6th best record this season, meaning total points for the year would determine who got the final playoff spot. James lost that tie-breaker by 8 points. A cautionary tale about getting too cute with your roster if I’ve ever seen one. Don’t overthink yourself into a decision that may hurt you later in the year! Now for week 14:

Quarterback

BEST:   Aaron Rodgers, GB

He and Tom Brady are the hottest quarterbacks in the league right now. I went with Rodgers over Brady this week because he has an easier match-up. The Lions have been better on defense this season, but are still one of the 10 worst teams in the league as far as giving up touchdowns through the air; having let opposing quarterbacks throw for 21 touchdowns so far this season. Plus, over his last 4 games Rodgers has averaged 308 yards per game, with about 3 touchdowns per game and no INTs. I think Rodgers has a big game this week and throws for around 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, just about average for him these days.

WORST:Â Mark Sanchez. NYJ

Saying Sanchez has been streaky this year would be generous. However, I’ve noticed a slight trend. Sanchez’s good and bad games have seemed to come in threes this year. In weeks 2-4 he had a QB rating of over 100 in each game. He followed that up with three straight games with a QB rating no higher than 60.1. He then followed that with three straight weeks with a QB rating of over 80. He’s had two bad weeks in a row, so I have a feeling he’ll end up with another sub-par performance. Not to mention the fact that he’s facing the Dolphins this week who have the 5th best pass defense in the league. Sanchez is in for a rough one, and should be sitting on your bench if he isn’t already.

Running Back

BEST:   Peyton Hillis, CLE

This is the second time I’ve put him here, but he definitely deserves repeat honors for this week. He really is the straw that stirs the Browns’ offensive drink, so he’ll see the ball plenty of times. Plus, he’s facing a pitiful Bills rush defense that has given up an average of 170 yards per game. The Bills have also given up 14 rushing touchdowns this year, meaning averages dictate that Hillis should get into the end zone this week. I think he’ll go for around 120 yards on the ground with a touchdown, and should see about 6 catches for 50 yards through the air. That’s a great fantasy day by any measure.

WORST:Â Brandon Jacobs, NYG

He’s been very hot lately, so I’m sure there are plenty of owners who are tempted to start him this week. I just don’t trust him this week against a stout Vikings defense that only gives up around 92 yards per game on the ground. With the constant threat of Ahmad Bradshaw, even with his fumblitis, lurking behind Jacobs he just isn’t a safe enough play for me to fully recommend him this week. I expect him to pick up around 70 yards on the ground this week without a score as the Vikings continue their newly discovered winning ways against the Giants.

Wide Receiver

BEST:   Reggie Wayne, IND

Yes, there have been some serious problems with the Colts’ passing game lately, but I think you can only hold Peyton Manning down for so long. The Titans have been awful against the pass this season, ranking 23rd in the league in pass defense. I think number 18 finds his groove this week, and that means plenty of looks for Reggie Wayne. There is an injury concern here with Wayne, so monitor him before the game on Thursday, but I think he’ll play, and will have a big week.

WORST:Â Danny Amendola, STL

He’s been a great play over the last few weeks in PPR leagues, since he sees so many looks from Sam Bradford. I really can’t recommend him this week though, simply because the yardage and touchdowns haven’t been there. Against a tough pass defense like the Saints, you’d hope as a fantasy owner that your wide receivers could pop off a big play or two when the defense makes a mistake. Amendola hasn’t showed much big-play ability this season, so I don’t think he’ll be a great play this week. He’ll probably have 6 or 7 catches for around 50 or 60 yards with no scores. Not good enough production to start this week unless you’re really in a pinch.

Tight End

BEST:   Brandon Pettigrew, DET

The Packers haven’t been great against athletic tight ends this season, as evidenced by the monster day they just gave up to Vernon Davis last week. Pettigrew sees plenty of red zone targets in the Lions’ offense, so I think he’ll find the end zone this week. Of course, the QB situation seems to be perpetually in flux in Motown, but I think it won’t matter for Pettigrew. Look for a solid week from the Lions’ tight end, and make sure he’s in your lineup.

WORST: Jacob Tamme, IND

Its not that the Colts’ passing game will suffer this week, I think they’ll have a great game as you can tell by my paragraph on Reggie Wayne. I just think most of the looks are going to go to the Colts receivers and Tamme will be slightly left out. I can’t recommend sitting Tamme, simply because tight end has been a surprisingly shallow position this season. Just expect diminished returns from Tamme in week 14.

Defense

BEST:   Atlanta Falcons

Repeat after me: Whoever the Panthers play is a good defensive start. Sure, the Falcons have been weak against the pass this season, but are one of the best teams in the league in stopping the run. The only weapons the Panthers have is in the run game, so this match-up plays right into the Falcons’ hands. I think they’ll turn over the Panthers multiple times, record at least 2 sacks, and hold Carolina to fewer than 17 points.

WORST:Â Dallas Cowboys

Don’t let last week’s performance fool you, the Dallas defense still isn’t as good as we all thought it would be. Plus, this week they face off against Michael Vick and the Eagles. I think Vick torches the ‘Boys for 3 TDs through the air and leads the Eagles to at least 28 points. Dallas may be able to put some pressure on Vick, but I don’t think they will be able to sack him enough times to warrant playing them this week.

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

-James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers

Is Starks going to be a photocopy Ryan Grant in Green Bay? Probably not. Is he going to be more productive than what we’ve seen so far from Packers backs since Grant went down in week 1? I sure think so. Starks looked the most explosive of any of the Green Bay runners last week gaining 73 yards on 18 carries. While a 4.1 ypc average isn’t exactly anything to write home about, it is relatively impressive for a rookie in his first NFL game. With the Packers potent passing game (alliteration anyone?) if Starks continues to look as good as he did against San Francisco I can see him being a solid back going forward. Make sure to claim him off of your waiver wire if he’s still available.

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