3 Daring Predictions Before Spartans March Into Mackey
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Michigan State basketball could really use a signature win at this phase of the season.
The 13th-ranked Spartans' best win this year is probably the overtime win over then-No. 5 Illinois on Feb. 7, but that one came at home. MSU doesn't have a truly elite victory on the road yet. The only team Michigan State has faced on the road that was ranked at the time of the matchup was then-No. 13 Nebraska on Jan. 2.
Thursday night will be a big chance. The Spartans are going into perhaps the most hostile environment in the Big Ten, Mackey Arena, as Michigan State will be looking to take down No. 8 Purdue. MSU hasn't won in this building in 12 years, its last win coming in February 2014. It's last win at Mackey against a ranked Boilermakers squad was in 2010, when Purdue was ranked third at the time (Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green both had double-doubles in that 53-44 win).
This is going to be a tall task for the Spartans. Here are a couple of predictions for how it will go:
Turnovers a Problem for MSU
Turnovers have been a problem for Michigan State this season. The stats indicate that that could very well be so in this one as well. One thing that has been true for some time is that the Spartans' offense has had the highest percentage of possessions ending in turnovers in the Big Ten during conference play (18.6%).
Purdue is one of the better teams in the Big Ten at forcing turnovers. The Boilermakers rank third in the conference during Big Ten play, forcing a giveaway on 16.7% on possessions. Nebraska, the team in first, forced 21 turnovers when it faced MSU. Iowa, the team in second, forced 14. UCLA, just behind Purdue in defensive turnover percentage, also forced 14.
Nice Game for Carr
This might be a good matchup game for Coen Carr. When both starting lineups are on the floor, he will be at the three. Purdue will counter that with Fletcher Loyer, whose defensive rating of 110.0 (higher is worse) is the largest number on the Boilermakers' regular playing group.
Carr and Loyer are of relatively similar height (Carr is an inch taller), but the Spartan brings with him 50 more pounds and a lot more athleticism. This can be something Michigan State should look to take advantage of early.
Smith, Purdue Out-Duel Fears, MSU
The game is headlined by the battle between perhaps the two best point guards in the Big Ten. Both MSU's Jeremy Fears Jr. and Purdue's Braden Smith are both old-school guards in the sense that they're pass-first players, but both are also good for about 15 points per game.
Fears very well could end up with a more impressive statline --- Michigan State is more reliant on Fears' prodcution than Purdue is on Smith's --- but this is probably the Boilermakers' game to lose. They have more talent, experience, and have been more consistent than the Spartans lately.
Final Prediction: No. 8 Purdue 71, No. 13 Michigan State 62
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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