3 Keys for MSU's Second-Round Confrontation with Louisville

BUFFALO, N.Y. --- The phrase "win the weekend" gets thrown around the Michigan State program quite a bit.

MSU is halfway to winning the weekend right now. The third-seeded Spartans handled (14) North Dakota State with relative ease on Thursday, 92-67, but the advantages of being a 3-seed in March Madness are short already. Next up is 6-seed Louisville, which advanced to the Round of 32 with an 83-79 win over (11) South Florida.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo gives instructions to his team during a game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

These two teams were seeded ninth and 23rd in the country by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. KenPom rates the two teams ninth and 20th nationally at the time this article is being written. Getting to the Sweet Sixteen is the first big hurdle of most high-major teams' tournament runs, and the winner of this one will be a deserving party.

For Michigan State to get to back-to-back second weekends, it must do these three things right:

Defend Perimeter

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. readies to defend against North Dakota State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

One of the certainties of this game is that Louisville is going to be putting some threes up in the air. The Cardinals take 32.1 three-pointers per game, which is the eighth-highest number in the nation and second among teams that made the second round. Throughout the season, 52.7% of UL's shots from the field have been from deep, the fourth-largest ratio in the country.

MSU has seen two teams that take more threes per game than Louisville. Cornell is third nationally at 32.9 three-point attempts per contest, and the Big Red managed to drop 97 points at the Breslin Center back on Dec. 29 (the Spartans had 114, though). Wisconsin, though, ranks seventh at 32.6 such shots per game, and the Badgers blew Michigan State out in Madison on Feb. 13.

Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac McKneely (10) celebrates after scoring a three point basket as the Louisville Cardinals host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in an NCAA basketball game at the KFC Yum! Center, Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026, in Louisville. | Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This is the part of the matchup that makes me nervous. Three-point shooting can be the great equalizer for an underdog in the NCAA Tournament. If Louisville shoots 13-of-25 (52%) from deep, as it did against USF in the first round, it might be tough to overcome. Watch out for UL's Isaac McKneely: he made seven of those threes in the first round on only 10 attempts.

What doesn't help is that Michigan State's five opponents entering the tournament all made double-digit threes. The perimeter defense was better against NDSU, holding the Bison to a 6-for-25 (24%) day from behind the arc, but North Dakota State doesn't have the guard play and athleticism that MSU or Louisville have.

Pressure UL Guards

Louisville's star point guard, Mikel Brown Jr., is not going to play in this game due to a nagging back injury. Brown is about as big a loss as it gets -- he averages 18.2 points, 4.7 assists, and is a projected lottery pick in this year's NBA Draft.

Instead, it's going to be Ryan Conwell running the offense for the Cardinals. He scored 18 points with six assists against South Florida, but that came at the expense of six turnovers. Conwell has averaged 3.2 turnovers per game compared to just 2.8 assists in the five recent games that Brown has missed.

He can still score it, though. Conwell averages 18.7 points per game and has averaged 20.6 over this same five-game stretch. You're going to see him take a good handful of threes; Conwell averages 9.5 three-point attempts per game by himself, making them at a 34.1% clip. If MSU point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. grants him an inch of space on the perimeter, Conwell is probably firing.

Three other available guards are also threats. McKneely, who led the way on Thursday, shoots 39.4% from three while taking 6.9 such attempts per game as the Cardinals' two-guard. Three-man Adrian Wooley shoots 34.2% on 3.3 such shots a contest. J'Vonne Hadley, a 6-foot-7 guard who actually plays the four and whom Tom Izzo says MSU recruited in the portal a bit, shoots a scorching 46.3% on 2.4 tries per contest.

Bench Guys Must Show Up

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Trey Fort (9) dribbles and looks to pass as North Dakota State Bison guard Andy Stefonowicz (5) defends during the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

One of the reasons the Spartans were on cruise control mode against North Dakota State on Thursday was that guys outside of the starting five showed up. Michigan State got 30 points from its bench. That's partially because of the lopsided score, which allowed only Jeremy Fears Jr. and Carson Cooper to be the guys playing 30+ minutes, but guys like Cam Ward and Trey Fort were playing well early.

MSU needs that in this game. Even with the Brown injury for Louisville, the Cardinals still put nine players on the floor against USF. They just have a little more reliable depth at the moment. The shifts from Ward, Fort, Kur Teng, anxd Denham Wojcik will be critical for Michigan State's chances and to keep the starters' legs fresh for what might be a tight game down the stretch.

Michigan State's Cam Ward blocks a North Dakota State shot during the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI