3 Things to Know About MSU's Next Battle vs. Louisville

BUFFALO, N.Y. --- It's all about surviving and advancing.

These two teams have found their way through the Round of 64 and into the second round of the NCAA Tournament. (3) Michigan State cruised past (14) North Dakota State, 92-67, and (6) Louisville built a big lead and held on against (11) South Florida in an 83-79 result.

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac McKneely (10) reacts to a play during the second half against the South Florida Bulls during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Now, these two programs that combine for four national titles and 18 Final Fours will meet for the right to advance to the Sweet 16 in Washington, D.C. MSU will be trying to get their for the 17th time under Tom Izzo; Louisville will seek its first second-weekend appearance since 2015 and its first under second-year head coach Pat Kelsey.

Here are a couple of quick things to know about the Cardinals and how they match up to the Spartans:

Injury to Mikel Brown Jr.

One key thing to know is that UL will be without one of its best players. The school announced on Wednesday that stellar freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. will be out for the first weekend of the tournament, so he will not be expected to go against Michigan State on Saturday.

When he's been able to go this season, Brown has averaged 18.2 points per game as well as a team-high 4.7 assists per game. An ESPN mock draft from a little more than a week ago had him going eighth overall in the 2026 NBA Draft, so that's a serious, serious loss.

Louisville managed fine against USF without its point guard. Ryan Conwell ran the Cardinals' offense instead. He's the other big player to know on UL's roster, as he's good for about 18 or 19 points per contest. During the game against the Bulls, he hovered right around his season average of 18 points while also dishing out six assists, but that came at the expense of six turnovers.

Still, Brown is Louisville's best passer and a very capable scorer. MSU will definitely hope to magnify the importance of its loss more than what South Florida did.

Lots of Three-Point Shooting

Louisville shoots a TON of threes. Across this entire season, 52.7% of the Cardinals' shots have been from behind the arc. That's the fourth-highest ratio in the entire country, according to KenPom, and the second-biggest number among tournament teams (fourth-seeded Alabama is first at 53.7%).

Those threes were the biggest reason UL outlasted USF. Louisville scorched the nets from deep, going 13-for-25 (52%) as a team. South Florida, on the other hand, could not buy a made shot at 5-for-33 (15.2%) from three.

Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) drives to the basket against South Florida Bulls guard Wes Enis (2) during the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

This is another reason why the injury to Brown could be key for Louisville. The Spartans have been allowing more dribble penetration than they'd like lately, which helped allow their five opponents before the NCAA Tournament all hit 10+ threes. It looked better against North Dakota State, as the Bison went 6-for-25 (24%) from three, but UL is a different caliber of team than NDSU.

It's still a spot where a team would like a player who can both pass and put the ball on the deck and drive to the basket. Conwell is still capable, but it certainly makes life a little easier for Jeremy Fears Jr. and Jordan Scott in Michigan State's backcourt.

Experienced

Mar 18, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Pat Kelsey answer questions during the press conference ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Another thing that stands out is how much experience Louisville has. The average player on the Cardinals' roster entering this season had 2.49 years of Division I experience, according to KenPom. That's 16th in the country and sixth among squads that made the NCAA Tournament. For additional reference, Michigan State ranked 197th at 1.40 years.

Conwell is a senior. J'Vonne Hadley, who averages about 12 points per game, is a sixth-year senior. Isaac McKneely, who hit seven threes against USF and averages about 11 points a contest, is a true senior. Sanandra Fru is in his first college season, but is listed as a junior and played professionally in the highest basketball league in Germany for four years.

That's not a team that will be shying away from the big stage. The good part is that the same can be said about MSU. All of its players who are returners from last season (which include four starters) went all the way to the Elite Eight. It's arrogant to say, but the second round of the NCAA Tournament is the expectation.

These two teams have met three times in March Madness before. Michigan State has won two of the three thus far, with the last such game being in the 2015 Elite Eight.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo watches from the sideline against North Dakota State during the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the KeyBank Center on Thursday, March 19, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI