3 Predictions Ahead of MSU's Must-Win Game vs. UCLA
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Tuesday night might show if Michigan State is just in another “February lull” or if its season’s trajectory is actually in jeopardy.
The 15th-ranked Spartans (20-5 overall, 10-4 Big Ten) have now lost three of their last four games, taking themselves out of the AP Top 10 for the first time in a month and now landing at their lowest mark since mid-November.
Next up is an interesting home matchup against UCLA (17-8, 9-5). The Bruins are coming off a game on Saturday at now-No. 1 Michigan where they were within two at halftime, but then collapsed in the second half and lost by 30.
Let’s break down this classic Big Ten matchup (oozing with sarcasm), offer a few smaller predictions, and then go for a final score guess that will hopefully age better than by guess for Friday night’s game at Wisconsin:
MSU Takes it to the Paint
One of the strengths of UCLA’s is its three-point defense. In fact, it’s one of the best things the Bruins have had going for themselves. UCLA has held its Big Ten opponents to a mere 29.7% mark from deep during conference play, which is the best mark in the conference.
This was a reason MSU fell to the Bruins in Los Angeles last year. The Spartans only went 5-for-22 (22.7%) from behind the arc that night in what ended up being a two-point loss (16 turnovers to three didn’t help, but this was a factor, too).
Michigan State needs to re-establish its identity in this game. Wisconsin out-toughed it on Friday night, outsourcing MSU in the paint, 28-14.
This is an opportunity for the Spartans to send a message to themselves. They already aren’t a great three-point shooting team, but they are a team that has proven they can rely on taking the ball inside for good looks at the rim. UCLA is also good at forcing opponents into taking threes, but even with that, I think MSU finds a way to impose its will a bit here.
Domination on the Glass
Another place where Michigan State should be dominating is on the glass. The Spartans and the Badgers were even at 38-38 in rebounds on Friday, but zero in the rebound margin may as well be minus-10 in the eyes of Tom Izzo, who wants to see his team get a double-digit advantage every night. Wisconsin also dominated second-change points, 19-8, despite the Spartans grabbing three more offensive rebounds.
This is another place where MSU’s culture and will normally shines. UCLA is one of the poorer rebounding teams in the Big Ten, ranking 221st nationally with its average rebound margin of plus-0.2, which ranks 13th in the conference. Michigan State, on the other hand, is at the top of the Big Ten and third nationally with its average margin of plus-12.6.
Glancing at the fancy KenPom numbers, the advantages are more clear. When a missed shot by the Bruins goes in the air, UCLA’s offensive rebounding ranks 148th in the country, while MSU’s defensive rebounding ranks second. When the Spartans miss a shot, their offensive rebounding is at fifth in the nation; UCLA’s defensive rebounding is all the way down at 233rd.
Simply put, if Michigan State doesn’t have a double-digit advantage on the glass in this one, or at least something close to it, there were definitely problems.
Home-Court Advantage Matters
Until MSU shows everyone that it’s gotten out of this rut that it's in, I can’t sit here and claim that everything is magically going to get better. This game is probably going to be close. Even though most bracketologists have the Bruins as a 10 or 11 seed (two Quad 2 losses don’t help), they are still sitting solid with a 9-5 conference record.
Playing at the Breslin Center matters, though. Michigan State didn’t play its most clean game against a really good Illinois squad, and the home-court advantage definitely seemed like one of the things that boosted the Spartans over the top.
UCLA doesn’t really know what it’s like to play in East Lansing. Xavier Booker can impose wisdom on what to expect, but stories and warnings about this or that only get one so far. The Bruins’ only trip to the Breslin Center ever, prior to Tuesday, was in December 2004, a game which the Spartans won, 76-64.
This game is going to be a huge indicator on where MSU goes from here. I think the crowd will respond in kind.
Final Prediction: MSU 74, UCLA 68
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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