3 Predictions for MSU's Primetime Rivalry Game with Michigan
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Not many basketball games between Michigan State and Michigan have been more anticipated than this one.
Purely from a rankings standpoint — featuring the third-ranked Wolverines and the seventh-ranked Spartans — the combined ranking of 10 is the lowest number in the rivalry’s history. The AP Poll first started coming out for college basketball during the 1948-49 season, by the way.
The massive collision course has been pretty clear for nearly the entire month. MSU enters on a seven-game winning streak; UM enters the winners of five straight. These two teams have a combined record of 38-3 and an 18-2 mark during Big Ten play. The winner of this heavyweight battle draws ahead in the chase for a Big Ten title that probably requires 16 of 17 wins this year, while the loser falls a valuable game behind.
Anything less than the apex of what the Breslin Center can provide atmosphere-wise would be disappointing. Part of that is determined by how the game goes. Here’s three predictions for Friday’s game, as well as a guess at the final score:
Big Scoring Night for Fears
One of the first things to look for is how well Michigan State can distribute the ball. The Spartans are one of the most reliant teams in the country on using passes to get buckets. This year, 67.3% of MSU’s baskets have come with an assist attached, which is the third-highest number in the country, according to KenPom.
The challenge Michigan presents is that it's good at taking that away. Only 42.2% of the field goals the Wolverines have allowed have come off assists, which is the ninth-lowest number in the country.
That means Michigan State needs somebody who can create their own shot. Ironically enough, that is probably going to have to be Jeremy Fears Jr., one of the nation’s best passers. Fears is now MSU’s leading scorer this season and is averaging 16.9 points across the Spartans’ last 10 games.
Fears is coming off a massive showing at Rutgers on Tuesday, scoring a career-high 29 points. The Spartans likely won’t be asking that much out of him, but with how stout defensively UM’s frontcourt is, they likely need their “floor general” to step up as a scorer again.
Low-Scoring Slugfest
This is more than just a near-dream rivalry matchup. These are also the two best defensive teams in all of college basketball, according to KenPom — MSU at first, Michigan in second.
Neither of these two teams are very accustomed to giving up many points. The upper hand during conference play does belong to Michigan State, though. The Spartans are allowing 0.916 points per possession against Big Ten opponents. UM is allowing 1.008 points per possession during conference play.
There is also the factor that this is a rivalry game. These two teams aren’t very fond of one another. It’s going to be old-school in a couple of different ways.
Seeing whichever team handles that best will be massively important. If one team becomes frustrated or uncomfortable with that level of physicality, the game may as well be over.
Experience Matters
There is one basic truth about this matchup, too: Michigan State can say it knows what it means a lot more. Tom Izzo is in his 31st season as the head coach at MSU, and in his 43rd overall in East Lansing, counting his time as an assistant.
Friday will be Izzo’s 71st birthday, but it’s also his 53rd game as a head coach against the Wolverines. Michigan’s Dusty May doesn’t nearly have that level of rivalry experience.
The same goes for the players. UM’s top five scorers this season are all new players. Those guys haven’t felt the pressure of this rivalry before and have received a full grasp of what the game means. Michigan State’s top five scorers, on the other hand, are all players who have experienced this before.
Michigan can imagine what it is walking into on Friday night. May saw how crazy it was on March 9 last year in East Lansing. But that game had little to no actual stakes — MSU already had the outright Big Ten title sealed. This game is bound to be different.
Final Prediction: No. 7 Michigan State 68, No. 3 Michigan 65
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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