3 Predictions for MSU's Tricky Road Test at Minnesota
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This is the phase where every single game for Michigan State feels like a must-win. The top of the Big Ten is so good, that MSU likely needs at least a 16-4 conference record to *maybe* win the conference’s regular season crown.
After suffering a second Big Ten loss to now-No. 2 Michigan this past Friday, the 10th-ranked Spartans (19-3 overall, 9-2 Big Ten) cannot afford another defeat. Not against teams like Minnesota (10-12, 3-8). Not with another game against the Wolverines, No. 5 Illinois, and No. 12 Purdue still remaining on the schedule.
Michigan State is in a similar spot as it was last week against Rutgers. It’s a road game against an underperforming team, with a two-day prep for a top-5 opponent (Illinois) immediately thereafter. Of course, MSU seemed to get more than it bargained for against the Scarlet Knights, needing a comeback and overtime to escape with a win.
The hope for the Spartans is no such dramatics are necessary this time. Let’s break down this game and make a few predictions.
Minnesota Holds Second-Half Lead
Unfortunately for those hoping for a drama-free Wednesday night, the signs point towards that not being the case. Minnesota is entering Wednesday on a seven-game losing streak, but the Golden Gophers have either been tied or had a lead at some point during the second half in every single one of those games. Despite the record, they are not a team that just gets blown out often.
This is also the part of the calendar where MSU has run into some issues in the past. The Spartans began February last year with that 0-2 trip to Los Angeles, needing a 14-point comeback to beat Oregon at home, and then losing outright at home to Indiana.
Two years ago, Michigan State had a road game at a pretty average Minnesota squad during the first week of February and lost. It’s a bit of a running joke within the MSU fanbase that this time of year is an annual lull for the team — the Spartans haven’t gone undefeated over Feb. 1-7 since 2018.
Spoiler for the end: I’m going to take Michigan State to win this one, but I do think the game will cause some gritted teeth among those watching on television inside Ingham County.
Slow and Steady
Both of these teams are hardly in a rush to get a shot off when they run their half-court offenses. According to KenPom, MSU’s adjusted tempo ranks 268th in college basketball, while Minnesota’s ranks 350th.
The winning team scoring in the low 70s or the high 60s would not be a huge surprise, either. Minnesota already wants a slower pace, and that’s especially going to be so it game plans for Michigan State. One reason Rutgers gave the Spartans fits was because it was the team controlling the pace, when MSU has usually been the team dictating that.
These two teams are also just better on the defensive end. During Big Ten play, the Spartans have ranked eighth in the conference in offensive efficiency, but are at the very top (by a fair amount) in defensive efficiency. Minnesota hasn’t necessarily been great at either, but its ranking at 11th defensively is better than its offense, which has ranked 14th.
MSU Gets Kohler Re-Established
Somebody Michigan State needs to get going again is forward Jaxon Kohler. Across the Spartans’ last five games, Kohler has only averaged 8.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Before that, he was at 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds.
One reason for the dip has been some struggles with the three-point shot. Kohler only made four of his 22 shots (18.2%) from beyond the arc across this five-game stretch. His 51.6% mark prior to that stretch may have been a little unsustainable.
What also may explain it is that the Spartans just aren’t giving him the post touches he thrives in much anymore. They’ll have to work around the double teams opponents send at him during those situations, but when Kohler gets a true, 1-on-1 post touch, his footwork and size generates a quality look most of the time. Getting to those spots should be a priority for MSU to try to get him going again.
“Of course,” is what Tom Izzo said when asked if he’d like to get Kohler more post touches. “That was one of the things we talked about to him. The problem is everybody was doubling him, and he panicked on that a little bit. But if they’re doubling him, that’s OK, there’s going to be some openings for other people. I don’t think we’ve done a good job of that, because he needs the ball on the block.”
Final Prediction: No. 10 MSU 72, Minnesota 67
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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