Best & Worst Case Scenarios for MSU on Selection Sunday

Here are the different places that the Spartans can end up in the bracket.

Michigan State forward Coen Carr (55) goes to the basket against UCLA center Xavier Booker (1) during the second half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No matter if one's team is a lock for an NCAA Tournament bid or not, Selection Sunday comes with some nerves.

Today is the day that the path is set in front of Michigan State for what it hopes will be another Final Four run. The Spartans haven't been there since 2019, a substantial drought by Tom Izzo's standards.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo looks on during a game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Even though MSU isn't playing on Sunday, the day's events will have a real impact on the team's chances to go far in March Madness. Lots of things get determined when the annual "Selection Show" airs at about 6 p.m. ET on CBS. The seed, region, location, first-round opponent, and potential future opponents all matter.

So, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Michigan State here:

Worst-Case: 3 seed, East Region

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo reacts after Carson Cooper is called for a foul during the second half in the game against Michigan on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The toughest path Michigan State could face is being on that 3-line out in the East Region. It starts with the fact that this region goes through Duke, which will almost certainly be the No. 1 overall seed on Sunday.

The Spartans can hang with the Blue Devils, and the Sweet 16/Elite Eight is in Washington, D.C. (the same location as the 2019 upset win), but it may be better to avoid them, given that Duke beat MSU at the Breslin Center earlier this season.

Dropping down to that 3 spot is the main concern, though. It makes the path to the Sweet 16 just a bit tougher, for one, but it also means that Michigan State's Sweet 16 game is against a better opponent. In this scenario, it could very well be second-seeded UConn. Personally, playing Dan Hurley this time of year also seems like something to avoid.

Best-Case Scenario: 2 seed, South Region

Michigan State's Jordan Scott watches a free throw go up during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

This probably won't happen, but that's why it's just the theoretical "best-case scenario." The big reason why this is the case is that the South Region will be occupied by the last 1 seed in the tournament.

The top three overall seeds are probably going to be Duke, Arizona, and Michigan (not necessarily in that order). Duke is taking the East Region, Arizona is taking the West, and Michigan will take the Midwest.

Michigan State forward Coen Carr (55) attempts a free throw against UCLA during the first half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That leaves the South, where it will probably go to Florida. The Gators rolled through SEC regular-season play and are still the defending champs, but they looked pretty mortal in a blowout loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Chances are, though, that if MSU is a 2 seed, it may be the very last 2 seed. The selection committee would likely try to avoid putting the weakest 1 and 2 seeds in the same region to better balance out the bracket.

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. looks on during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal game against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI