Predicting MSU Basketball's Seed in Upcoming NCAA Tournament

The (relatively short) waiting game is now on.

No. 8 Michigan State (25-7 overall) has to now sit around for a little bit before it learns where it is going in the NCAA Tournament. MSU was swept aside in the Big Ten Tournament in one game on Friday after losing to UCLA, 88-84, during the quarterfinal round.

Michigan State's Carson Cooper defends UCLA's Tyler Bilodeau during a Big Ten Tournament game at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Sunday is one of the holy grails of the college basketball calendar, though, because it's "Selection Sunday." After the Big Ten's championship game wraps up, the selection committee will reveal all 68 teams that made it into March Madness this year and where they fit into this year's bracket.

The Spartans are in an interesting spot this year. Here's the best guess one can have at where they end up being placed on Sunday:

NCAA Tournament Projection

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the first half at United Center. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Chances are that Michigan State is still leaning into 2-seed territory. The loss to the Bruins isn't great, but part of the reason why MSU might end up not falling a seed line is that some of its main competition ended up losing on Friday as well.

Illinois is one team that has been hovering around the 2 or 3 seed area. It ended up dropping its first Big Ten Tournament game to Wisconsin earlier in the day. Iowa State is also in a similar spot, and it lost at the buzzer to Arizona.

Michigan State's Jordan Scott watches a free throw go up during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Nebraska, a team with a head-to-head win over the Spartans, is more firmly on the 3-line. It lost its first conference tourney game to Purdue, too. At the end of the day, when all these teams that are jumbled up together all lose at the same time, there really shouldn't be much movement.

Michigan State's resume is still very strong. Losing a Quad 1 game by four to a UCLA squad that had gotten pretty hot lately isn't too much to be ashamed of. Only one of the Spartans' seven losses isn't from a Q1 game (the road loss at Minnesota). Having three of your losses being to 1 seeds (one to Duke, two to Michigan) certainly can help the strength-of-schedule metrics, too.

Michigan State's Trey Fort gets back on defense during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal game against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Their WAB (wins above bubble) should also still be in a relatively decent place. The NCAA hasn't updated the official list at the time this article is being written, but MSU entered Friday ranked seventh in the statistic at 7.89. Losing a neutral site game is probably going to shave about 0.3 or 0.4 off that, but that should keep the Spartans around eighth in the country (still in that range to get a 2 seed).

As for location, it'll probably be Buffalo, N.Y. to start the tournament. That's where most projections seem to place the Spartans. The region is up in the air --- some say West Region (San Jose, Calif. trip for the Sweet 16/Elite Eight), some say East Region (Washington, D.C.). Getting the Midwest Region (Chicago) would be the most convenient, but that'll almost certainly be Michigan's region, and the committee won't want the top two seeds to be from the same conference, especially rivals.

Michigan State mascot "Sparty" celebrates during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal game against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI