Breaking Down 3 Ways MSU Can Take Down NDSU

Let's take a look at the Spartans' NCAA Tournament game against the Bison.

Michigan State forward Jordan Scott (6) passes the ball against UCLA forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) during the first half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The NCAA Tournament in Buffalo awaits Michigan State. Only one more game is guaranteed from now on.

Third-seeded MSU is going to look to take care of business against 14-seed North Dakota State on Thursday (4:05 p.m. ET, TNT). This is the fourth time in program history that the Spartans have been seeded third in March Madness. The first time it happened was Jud Heathcote's final year at Michigan State, where the Spartans bowed out to 14-seed Weber State in the first round.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo gives instructions to his team during a game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Both other past instances happened during the Tom Izzo era. MSU reached the Sweet 16 as a 3-seed in 2013 and lost in the second round in 2018.

Certainly, Michigan State would prefer to avoid a 1995 Weber State or a 2016 Middle Tennessee State-type situation here. The expectations at MSU are far beyond the Round of 64. For this game against NDSU, there are a couple of different paths the Spartans can take to ensure they get to see either (6) Louisville or (11) South Florida on Saturday.

Start Fast

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. hunches over during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

March Madness crowds are interesting. It's usually a total hodgepodge of people. There will be a sect of Michigan State fans, some North Dakota State fans, some upstate New Yorkers who decided to go check out some basketball, and also fans from other teams who are either waiting for their team's game to come up or are sticking around.

It's a neutral site game where MSU fans will almost certainly outnumber NDSU fans, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Spartans will have the crowd in their favor. If those impartial fans sense that an upset could be brewing, they usually turn on the higher seed very quickly. The fact that Michigan will be playing in the game after Michigan State's certainly won't help.

Michigan State's Coen Carr looks on during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

MSU can't let the imperials (and the partials) believe there is a real chance the Bison can win. Their players, who are mostly used to playing in front of smaller, quieter crowds, would especially feed off that energy.

North Dakota State has not played a team nearly as good as the Spartans all season. The first five minutes of the game are the time to flex your muscles, play big-boy basketball, and try to have NDSU dazed by the time the under-16 timeout rolls around.

Take Care of the Ball

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler looks on during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

One of the best ways to ensure momentum never steers in the Bison's direction is by taking care of the basketball. North Dakota State is 45th in the nation at forcing turnovers, averaging 13.7 takeaways per game.

This has been a problem for Michigan State all season. MSU's 11.5 turnovers per game rank 181st in the nation and 14th among Big Ten teams. If the Spartans are going to have an issue here in this game, it's going to have to be deadball turnovers, like a pass out of bounds. A steal that leads to a fastbreak or a pick-six for a dunk are plays that make an underdog believe they can do it.

Defend Perimeter

Michigan State's Jordan Scott watches a free throw go up during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal against UCLA at the United Center on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

I've kind of written/talked about it ad nauseam at this point, but the three-point defense really does need to get better. It's going to be a critical component of this game for a scuffling Michigan State defense for a few reasons.

Firstly, North Dakota State cannot match MSU's height and length. The average player on the Spartans' roster is 2.5 inches taller than the average Bison player, according to KenPom. That same site says Michigan State has the 22nd-biggest team in college hoops; NDSU ranks 339th (out of 365).

Mar 8, 2022; Sioux Falls, SD, USA; North Dakota State Bison head coach Dave Richman watches action against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the second half at Denny Sanford Premier Center. | Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

Just about 43% of the Bison's shot attempts this year have been threes. I'm expecting that ratio to be more around 50% (and maybe above) on Thursday. Getting hot from three is one of the most common themes seen in big March Madness upsets. Middle Tennessee State shot 57.9% against MSU in 2016. UMBC shot 50% against Virginia in 2018. Saint Peter's shot 52.9% against Kentucky in 2022.

Oftentimes, it's out of necessity. Mid-majors generally cannot hang with the size and athleticism of Big Ten programs. North Dakota State ranks 39th in the country with a 36.5 team-wide percentage from deep this season, though, and the Spartans' last five opponents have made 10+ threes. The ingredients are there, so Michigan State needs to prevent that recipe from getting made.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo smiles from the bench during a game against Maryland at the Breslin Center on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI