Don't Count Out MSU Baseball Against USC in the B1G Tourney

Here's how the Spartans can pull off yet another upset in Omaha.

Michigan State's Nolan Higgins delivers a pitch during a NCAA Big Ten Conference baseball game against Iowa, Saturday, May 13, 2023, at Duane Banks Field in Iowa City, Iowa. | Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan State is on to the second phase of the Big Ten Tournament.

The Spartans were the very last team in the 12-team field, but pulled off a pair of upsets to reach the conference quarterfinals. MSU beat 5-seed Purdue 8-4 on Tuesday and 8-seed Iowa 4-3 on Wednesday.

Michigan State's Randy Seymour throws the ball to first base after fielding a ball against Ohio State during the seventh inning on Friday, April 18, 2025, at McLane Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That was a double-elimination phase, though. One loss eliminates your team from the quarterfinal round onward. Going 2-0 on Tuesday and Wednesday gave Michigan State the "preferred" draw, though

Going 2-1 would've meant a matchup against UCLA, the No. 1 team in the nation on D1Baseball.com and the conference's top seed. Instead, MSU will go up against 4-seed USC, ranked 25th in the country, on Friday (10 a.m. ET, BTN).

Why MSU Can Pull Off the Upset

Michigan State's Randy Seymour, right, celebrates after scoring against the Lugnuts in the third inning on Tuesday, April 4, 2023, during the Crosstown Showdown at Jackson Field in Lansing. 230404 Msu Lugnuts Bsball 132a | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of the other benefits of winning the first two games and immediately finding your way into Friday is the day off on Thursday. That gives the pitchers in the bullpen a very valuable day to rest, which helps open up options for the Spartans during the game, since they haven't needed to use any arms in an elimination game.

USC will be more rested, though, since the top four seeds in this format got a bye straight to the quarterfinals. What might be in MSU's favor is that there is a delicate balance between rest and rust in baseball. The Trojans will not have played in five days heading into this matchup. College baseball teams aren't playing nearly every single day like MLB teams are, but that is still a real gap.

Season on the Line

Michigan State's Ryan McKay fields a ball for an out against Ohio State during the fifth inning on Friday, April 18, 2025, at McLane Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State should also be the more desperate team. USC is a shoo-in for the NCAA Tournament, though the Trojans are perhaps seeking to earn a top-16 seed and become a regional host. Alas, the season isn't over for the Trojans if they lose on Friday.

It will be done for MSU with a loss. The Spartans have a losing record, after all, and an RPI ranking down at 103rd in the country. Michigan State's only path into the national tourney is to win three more games to win the whole Big Ten Tournament and get the conference's auto-bid. MSU has only made the NCAA Tournament once since 1980, most recently making it in 2012 during Jake Boss Jr.'s fourth season with the program.

Michigan State's head coach Jake Boss Jr. heads to the dugout during the seventh inning in the game against Ohio State on Friday, April 18, 2025, at McLane Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

MSU did not match up with the Trojans during the regular season. The Spartans actually upset a 25th-ranked USC squad in 2025, though, during a series in Los Angeles. Michigan State won the first game 5-0, run-ruled the second game in a 15-5 win in eight innings, but then couldn't complete the sweep with a 10-3 loss in the third game.