How MSU's Bowl Path Has Changed After Illinois Loss

The Spartans lost to the Illinois Fighting Illini in a game that they absolutely could have won if they had not gone for the two-point conversion at the end of overtime to win the game, or at least not gone for it with the play calling they did.

But the failed two-point conversion and all of the performances from every unit - defense, offense, and even special teams - are now in the rearview mirror. With six games left in the season, attention turns to what it would take for MSU to make a bowl game, as well as how plausible such an idea really is.

So how did the Fighting Illini's win affect the Spartans' bowl game path, and how much harder will it be for them to reach the six-win mark now that they have one less game to work with?

The Teams Left That Must Be Beaten

Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald celebrates after a touchdown under review was upheld during the third quarter against Illinois on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The three teams originally on MSU's path to a bowl game stay the same. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are currently the worst team in the Big Ten, the Washington Huskies are struggling, and the Michigan Wolverines are part of a rivalry game that could go either way despite any apparent talent gap between the two teams.

The tough part is the extra team MSU will have to beat to reach a bowl game, as two of the opponents are ranked, and one was ranked before a loss this week.

The first opponent, and the Spartans' next matchup, is the Northwestern Wildcats, who are now ranked at the fringe of the top 25 (25th), though they have possibly been good enough to earn a higher spot. They also have Aiden Chiles leading the way, and in a revenge game, anything can happen, so a win over the Wildcats would be welcome but seems unlikely.

There are also the UCLA Bruins, and they are likely a loss as well, as they are not only the 12th-ranked team in the nation, but in their three-win season last year, they absolutely smoked MSU in a blowout victory. Several players on that team have returned for another go, and their new head coach Bob Chesney has pulled off an amazing turnaround, so UCLA is also a likely loss.

That just leaves the Oregon Ducks. If someone had said MSU would have to beat them and they would actually have a chance, too, at the beginning of the season, the take would have been crazy, but now it is at least somewhat reasonable.

This is because the Ducks were a turnover machine in their last game against the Bruins, and their defense wasn't great. The only reason the game was not a blowout was that UCLA stalled in the red zone.

It will not be an easy game by any means, but it is a game that MSU has a chance in, and if they want to get to a bowl game this year, they will have to topple the Ducks one way or another.

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