Previewing & Predicting MSU Basketball's Game vs. Toledo
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Michigan State basketball's 2026-27 season got off to a nice start on Monday. Now it has to show it can progress and trend upward.
The sixth-ranked Spartans shellacked Quinnipiac 96-59 in their season opener to start 1-0. That's the result MSU is supposed to put out against a physically outmatched, low-major opponent. Not a ton really changes in terms of the mission against Toledo (0-1). Tip-off on Thursday is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock. Let's dig into this matchup and make a prediction.
Comparing Toledo to Quinnipiac
Toledo will be a more challenging opponent than Quinnipiac. All the predictive metrics say that the Rockets are a lot better. KenPom has UT at 141st as of Wednesday; Quinnipiac is 277th. The site's ratings indicate that Toledo would be favored by roughly 9-10 points on a neutral court.
"We'll have to play as good or better, I think, to win this game," Tom Izzo said Tuesday. "And I did not mind the team we played (Quinnipiac). I mean, I thought they had some tough kids, but we made shots early, and that was the difference in the game. This team (Toledo) can make a lot of shots. His (Toledo head coach Tod Kowalczyk's) scoring... he's always been in the 80s. So we'll have our hands full defensively, and hopefully we can do our job offensively."
Now, needing to play "as good or better" to just win may be largely untrue. Michigan State could play half as well as it did on Monday and skirt by. That's Izzo puffing up the opponent, but that's also the right, process-oriented way to look at the second game of the season, which will inevitably be directly compared to the first.
The pedal also has to stay down when No. 2 Duke awaits next Tuesday, Nov. 10, in the Champions Classic. These first two games against Quinnipiac and Toledo are largely opportunities for the Spartans to get their preseason mojo back after a few disappointing exhibition games. Game No. 1 was a success, but that can get wiped away if Michigan State is in a dogfight with a MAC team in the second half on Thursday.
Toledo opened its season with a 71-70 loss at Arkansas State, losing on a free throw in the final seconds. Mynor Strong led the Rockets with 18 points, with Jaylan Ouwinga and Angel Montas Jr. also providing 16 points each. Ouwinga had 14 rebounds, and point guard Sean Jones also dished out nine assists.
What To Expect, Watch in Matchup
It's still true that Toledo is a better team than Quinnipiac, but the difference is not so dramatic that Thursday's result should ever be in much doubt. KenPom gives MSU a 98% chance to win this one; EvanMiya has it up at 99.3%.
The main thing that will be tested is Michigan State's defense. Kowalczyk's teams at Toledo are usually very offensive-minded. The Rockets have been in the top 20% of college basketball in scoring offense every season since COVID, including two years in the top 10.
A decent day for MSU would look a lot like Monday or last year's meeting with Toledo. The Spartans crushed UT 92-69 at home on Dec. 16, 2025. That result isn't entirely indicative of what will happen on Thursday because of how different the Rockets are this year, but that 23-point differential will be another baseline.
Michigan State will also get an early reinforcement for this one. Izzo said Tuesday that he's expecting forward/center Jesse McCulloch to be able to play against Toledo after he was held out of the season opener with a minor concussion.
The big question is whether he or Anton Bonke starts at the five. McCulloch very well could've started on Monday had he been available, but Bonke looked much more like the center he was brought to East Lansing to be, notching a double-double featuring 11 points, 13 rebounds, and two blocks.
Final Thoughts, Prediction
I got the exact number of points that Quinnipiac would score right on Monday, but some underestimations happened when gauging the Spartans' offense. Ninety-six points could be a bit much, but Thursday should be another decent day on that end of the floor.
Toledo's offense should reach that 60-point plateau, though. Again, the Rockets are a better team than Quinnipiac, so Michigan State giving the Rockets the 37-point thrashing that it gave the Bobcats would be a surprise. This game will be closer than the Quinnipiac game, but not that much closer.
Final Prediction: No. 6 Michigan State 91, Toledo 65
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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