Where MSU's Tournament Seeding Stands Before Final Regular Season Game

There is only one more game to be played, and then it's time for the postseason.

The chance of No. 8 Michigan State (25-5 overall, 15-4 Big Ten) only playing two more games before the NCAA Tournament bracket gets revealed next Sunday. MSU has No. 3 Michigan in Ann Arbor this Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET) and will start its Big Ten Tournament run in the later session of the quarterfinal round in Chicago next Friday as either the conference's No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler makes a fadeaway against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Maximizing that resume in the coming days is going to be huge. A victory over UM would almost certainly lock up being on that two-line, but a loss to the Wolverines and then a quick exit in the conference tourney would make things dicey.

There is still a lot of clarity on where Michigan State stands with 30 games under its belt, though. Here is where two major publications have the Spartans going right now:

ESPN's Projection

Michigan State forward Jordan Scott (6) dribbles against Rutgers guard Tariq Francis (0) during the second half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Thursday, March 5, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What's becoming close to unanimous is that MSU is a 2 seed right now. Nearly every single bracketologist on "The Bracket Matrix" has the Spartans on that seed line. ESPN's Joe Lunardi is one of them. When he updated his projections on Friday morning, he had Michigan State as the second seed in the East Region, where Duke is the top overall seed.

Lunardi also has MSU going to Buffalo, N.Y. for the first and second rounds, which is the closest possible location the Spartans can to start their tourney run by driving distance. He has Michigan State starting its run against 15th-seeded Wright State, the current 1 seed in the Horizon League tournament.

Michigan State's Coen Carr celebrates after three dunks in a row against Rutgers during the second half on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Assuming MSU advances, Lunardi has it facing either No. 7 seed Miami (FL) or No. 10 seed Missouri. The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds in the East Region are in Washington, D.C.

CBS's Projection

Michigan State's Tom Izzo gives instructions to his team during a game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

CBS's pair of bracketologists, David Cobb and Jacob Fetner, also have the Spartans as a second seed. One major difference is that they have them in the West Region, which would send MSU to San Jose, Calif., if it reaches the second weekend. Arizona is the region's top seed here.

Locations for the first weekend are not included as part of CBS's projection, which was also updated Friday morning. What we do know is that Michigan State is paired up with No. 15 seed Portland State in the first round and would then face seventh-seeded BYU or No. 10 seed SMU in the Round of 32.