Why Middle Part of MSU Football's Schedule Will Define Season
In this story:
Michigan State has to find a way to steal a game or two or three in order for the first season of the Pat Fitzgerald era to really be considered a success.
Making a bowl game seems to be the main bar to clear. ESPN's College Football Power Index only considers MSU a favorite in three games this year, though -- the home games against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Northwestern. The site still gives the Spartans a 32.7% chance of reaching the six-win mark. A five-game stretch full of difficult but winnable games will define whether the games in November are exciting or a drag.
Limitations of Non-Conference Schedule
The amount we'll learn about this team, at least in terms of its quality, will probably be somewhat limited during the non-conference schedule. Big Ten teams don't exactly get a ton of applause for beating MAC teams, and then Michigan State *should* be a little out of its league when it goes to play Notre Dame in South Bend. The Fighting Irish were ranked fifth in the preseason Coaches Poll.
That Notre Dame game will definitely be the most useful game there. It'll be a quick test against one of the sport's behemoths, and if MSU can even stay competitive in this game for a half or three quarters, that would probably be considered a success. If you're the optimistic type, the Irish have been susceptible to early-season losses under Marcus Freeman.
MSU's Defining Run
The start of the Big Ten schedule will start the season-defining run for the Spartans. Chances are the team will enter the conference slate 2-1, meaning they'll need a 4-5 mark in conference to make a bowl. Michigan State's first conference matchups are: a home game vs. Nebraska, a road game at Wisconsin, homecoming against Illinois, a home game against Northwestern, and then a road game at UCLA.
All five of those games are definitely winnable. Illinois is considered the strongest of those five opponents, according to Cleveland.com's unofficial Big Ten preseason media poll, and the Fighting Illini were picked to finish ninth in the conference. Nebraska is considered the second-best of those teams, and the Cornhuskers were picked 11th. Wisconsin is expected to finish 12th, UCLA was chosen 13th, and Northwestern was 14th.
Michigan State finished 16th, so none of those games are freebies, but it's not ridiculous to think MSU can find a way to win any of them individually.
Going off FPI, the Spartans have at least a 30% chance of winning each of those contests. They're definitely the underdog in a few of those clashes, but not a significant one.
Things can change once results come in, though. Play Notre Dame close on the road, and Nebraska at home doesn't seem remotely so bad. Beat Nebraska, and a Wisconsin program with a head coach on the hot seat hardly seems intimidating. Beat the Badgers, and Illinois looks a little easier, too.
There is a path to a snowball effect -- both ways. Lose those first two Big Ten games to Nebraska and Wisconsin, and Michigan State is suddenly 2-3 with a serious uphill climb to get to a bowl game. The end of the schedule is another part of that.
Difficult End to Schedule
I'm putting the target for that five-game stretch above at 3-2. That would put Michigan State at 5-3 entering a difficult four-game stretch to end the year, needing only one victory to get back to a bowl. MSU could maybe go 2-3 during that doable five-game stretch to enter November 4-4, but things get difficult in a hurry.
The final month of the regular season begins with the Michigan game. No matter the records of either team, this game will usually be the first one Michigan State fans think of when they think of a particular season. Still, I think UM probably will have a step or two on MSU this year. Michigan has won four straight against MSU and also made a nice hire given the circumstances with Kyle Whittingham. Fitzgerald seems to be weighing this game appropriately, but a win in Year 1 would surprise me.
Then come games against Washington and Oregon. Both of these games are at home, but the Huskies and the Ducks are still two of the stronger foes on Michigan State's schedule. Washington came in at No. 19 in the preseason Coaches Poll, and Oregon is among the list of title contenders at No. 2.
Rutgers at the very end might have to be the lifeline. That's why I think MSU has to enter November at 5-3 -- I just don't really see it winning the first three games of the month. The Scarlet Knights are the only conference foe that finished lower on the preseason media poll than Michigan State; Rutgers came in at 17th, only ahead of Purdue.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
Follow jacobcotsonika