Adjusting expectations: Is it time to get excited about Gophers hoops?

After an 0-6 start to Big Ten play, the Gophers' season looked like a lost cause. But after reeling off three wins in a row there is some excitement in the air. Now 11-9 overall and 3-6 in conference play, what are realistic expectations for Minnesota in the rest of the season?

In the short term, the Gophers' 3-6 conference record places them in a tie for 13th place in the Big Ten. The top 15 teams in the 18-team conference will qualify for the end-of-year conference tournament in Indianapolis. The tiebreaker will compare teams based on record against all common conference opponents.

NCAA Tournament chances

When it comes to qualifying for a postseason tournament, the most important number will be Minnesota's standing in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings. After Saturday's win over No. 15 Oregon, the Gophers are No. 96, which is a season best. For reference, the lowest-ranked at-large team in last season's NCAA Tournament was Virginia, which was 54th in the NET, so Minnesota has a long way to go.

The easiest way to climb the NET rankings is picking up Quad 1 wins. Those are defined as wins at home against a team that ranks 1-30 in the NET, or road wins against teams ranked 1-75. Margin of victory also carries weight.

The Gophers dug themselves quite a big hole with a slow start in nonconference play, and they might have to win at least six of their final eight Quad 1 games and all three of their Quad 2 games to even enter the NCAA Tournament discussion. That would give them 12 conference wins, which is a mark they haven't reached since 1996-97.

College Basketball Crown tournament

A much more realistic conversation would be an invitation to a different postseason tournament, which has a unique outlook this year. The traditional National Invitation Tournament (NIT) has a new competitor called the College Basketball Crown, which is a FOX-sponsored event that is required to take two automatic qualifiers from the Big Ten.

The automatic qualifiers will be the top two Big Ten teams that aren't invited to the NCAA Tournament, based on the final NET rankings. There will also be two automatic qualifiers from the Big 12 and Big East, plus 10 at-large teams in a 16-team field.

The Gophers currently rank as the 17th-best Big Ten team in the latest NET. They are 12 spots away from Rutgers, 23 away from Southern Cal and 28 away from Indiana. None of those teams are projected to be invited to the NCAA Tournament, so that means Minnesota is on the outside looking in.

NIT chances

The traditional NIT will still exist this season, but the only automatic qualifier for the Big Ten will be the top team in the final KenPom ratings not selected for the NCAA Tournament. That team will likely be heading to play at the College Basketball Crown event, which begs the question of whether or not the Big Ten will even participate in the event altogether.

The NIT nor the Big Ten have explicitly stated plans, but it's no guarantee that the NIT even decides to invite Big Ten teams after the conference opted to essentially create a direct competitor.

Minnesota needs to keep winning games and a lot of them to even be in the discussion for any postseason tournament. After taking down two ranked opponents, the second half of their Big Ten schedule looks a lot lighter, with only one game against the conference's top-five teams.

The Gophers will have an opportunity to pick up a fourth consecutive Quad 1 victory Tuesday night on the road against Michigan State, which ranks 17th in the latest NET. If anyone told you they'd beat Michigan, Iowa and Oregon in three straight games you'd probably call them crazy, so who knows how this season will end for Minnesota.