Big Ten Seeding Becomes Clearer for Gophers Entering Regular Season Finale

Gophers women's basketball will play just one game in the final week of the regular season on Sunday against Illinois, but five Big Ten games on Wednesday night and one more on Thursday have serious implications on seeding for the conference tournament. Let's break it down.

After Ohio State's overtime loss at home to Michigan, the Gophers officially moved back into a tie for fourth place in the conference standings. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Buckeyes, which means they would be the fourth seed in the conference tournament if the regular season ended today. That is significant because the top four teams earn a double bye into Friday's quarterfinals.

Big Ten women's basketball tournament projections as of Feb. 26. | Picture via: bball.notnothing.net

If Iowa somehow finishes the season 0-2, the Gophers could still climb as high as the three-seed, but the stakes for their regular-season finale against Illinois are pretty clear.

If Minnesota beats Illinois and gets to 13-5, it will likely be the four seed. If the Fighting Illini win, Minnesota will likely be seeded at five or six, depending on the result of Ohio State-Michigan State at 11 a.m. CT on Sunday. The Gophers will play at 1 p.m. CT, and Iowa plays in Wisconsin at 2 p.m. CT, so we will likely know Minnesota's seed before 5 p.m. CT on Sunday evening.

If the Gophers don't take care of business on Sunday, there's no way for them to earn a top-four seed. In that scenario, they would either be (12-6) in a tie with Michigan State, which holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, or have a worse record than Ohio State. The only way for them to drop to the six seed would be if Maryland knocks off Michigan. At 12-6, the Terrapins would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Gophers.

Gophers' potential scenarios

3 seed: with win @ Illinois + Iowa loss vs. Illinois, @ Wisconsin
4 seed: with win @ Illinois
5 seed: with loss @ Illinois + Ohio State win @ Michigan State
6 seed: with loss @ Illinois + Michigan State win vs. Ohio State + Maryland win @ Michigan

The Gophers haven't made the NCAA Tournament since the 2017-18 season. With a 21-7 overall and 12-5 mark in the Big Ten, they're essentially a lock to break that streak this March. Most projections have them around the five-seed line in that tournament. A run in the Big Ten tournament could help them break into the four-seed line, which means they could host their first two games in the big dance.