Gophers slide down NCAA Tournament bubble after latest loss

Minnesota is firmly on the bubble heading into its final game of the regular season.

Feb 2, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Dawn Plitzuweit during the first quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

According to ESPN's Charlie Creme and his Bracketology prediction, Gophers women's basketball has been among the 'Last Four Byes' for the projected NCAA Tournament field for more than a month, but they've slid down to the 'Last Four In' according to his update on Friday.

After getting off to a 16-1 start, Minnesota looked well on its way to its first NCAA Tournament invitation since the 2017-18 season. A once-promising season has seemingly gone off the rails, as they're now 4-7 in their last 11 games and sliding down the bubble picture.

Feb. 28 edition of ESPN's Bracketology | Picture via: ESPN.com

With a 20-9 overall record, the Gophers seem to have a strong at-large resume on the surface, but that might not be the case if you look deeper. Their NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking remains strong at No. 35, but they have a 0-5 record in Quad 1 and a 2-4 record in Quad 2. 18 of their 20 wins have come against Quad 3 or 4 opponents.

Minnesota holds only two wins against teams currently projected to make the field. A January 5 home win over Illinois is hovering on Quad 1 territory. More recently, they beat Indiana at home on February 5, which is projected as a 10-seed in the latest Bracketology.

The Gophers will have a massive opportunity to finish the regular season on Saturday against No. 23 Michigan State on the road. The Spartans are 21st in the latest NET, so it will be a Quad 1 game for Minnesota. A win would go a long way in solidifying their tournament resume, but a loss would put a lot of pressure on them heading into the Big Ten Tournament next week in Indianapolis.

Big Ten Tournament projections as of Feb. 28 | Picture via: bball.notnothing.net

Minnesota would currently be the 13th seed, and they'd open with a Quad 1 opportunity against Washington. There are still plenty of chances to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume, but they might be running out of time.

---

Stay up to date on all things Gophers by bookmarking Minnesota Gophers On SI, subscribing to our YouTube channel, and signing up to receive our free Gophers newsletter.