Minnesota Gophers’ Big Ten Tournament fate: Scenarios, tiebreakers, key games

The Gophers appear to be a lock to make the Big Ten Tournament next week.

Mar 5, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Lu'Cye Patterson (25) celebrates during the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Only four days remain in the men's college basketball regular season, and the Minnesota Gophers currently share 11th place in the Big Ten with Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, and USC.

The remaining games will determine the 15 teams that qualify for next week's Big Ten Tournament—and the three teams that miss out. Penn State and Washington have already been eliminated from contention, while Iowa (6-12) is currently the last team out.

Minnesota can guarantee a spot in the Big Ten Tournament by winning at Rutgers on Sunday. But if they lose, things could get complicated.

A tiebreaker between three or more teams is settled by each team's record against the others they are tied with. Here's how Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, and USC have fared against each other:

• Minnesota: 2-1, with Rutgers pending
• Nebraska: 1-2
• Northwestern: 2-2
• Rutgers: 3-0, with Minnesota pending
• USC: 1-3

If Iowa somehow sneaks into the tiebreaker scenario, they are currently 3-3 against these five teams ahead of them and will finish the regular season Sunday against Nebraska.

Key games this weekend:

• Northwestern at Maryland – 2 p.m. Saturday
• USC at UCLA – 7 p.m. Saturday
• Nebraska vs. Iowa – 11:30 a.m. Sunday
• Minnesota at Rutgers – 12 p.m. Sunday

In a perfect world, the Gophers beat Rutgers while Northwestern, USC, and Nebraska lose. In that scenario, Minnesota would secure the No. 11 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

However, if the Gophers lose to Rutgers and finish 7-13 in the conference, Rutgers would secure the No. 11 seed, and Minnesota's fate would be determined by the results of Northwestern, USC, and Nebraska.

Possible seeding outcomes for Minnesota if they lose to Rutgers:

• If Minnesota, Northwestern, USC, and Nebraska all lose, the Gophers would be the No. 12 seed.
• If Minnesota, USC, and Nebraska lose, but Northwestern wins, the Gophers would be the No. 13 seed (assuming Iowa isn't a factor).
• If Minnesota and Nebraska lose, while Northwestern and USC win, the Gophers would be the No. 14 seed.
• If Minnesota loses and the other four teams all win, the Gophers would drop to the No. 15 seed.

One thing is certain: We cannot find a scenario where Minnesota slides to No. 16 and misses the tournament. For example, if the last two seeds come down to a three-way tie at 7-13 between Minnesota, Northwestern, and Iowa, the tiebreaker is determined by head-to-head records:

• Northwestern: 2-1 against Minnesota and Iowa
• Minnesota: 1-1 against Northwestern and Iowa
• Iowa: 1-2 against Northwestern and Minnesota

In that case, Iowa would be left out in the cold, and Minnesota would secure a tournament spot.