Bowl projections: Analyst has Gophers missing a bowl game entirely after first loss

Minnesota will begin conference play in two weeks with a 2-1 record.

Sep 13, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck prepares for a game against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The Gophers are fresh off their first loss of the season, but they get a bye week to prepare before their Big Ten opener on September 27 against Rutgers. Let's break down their rest-of-season outlook with 75% of the season still left to play.

Gophers bowl game projections

• On3 (Brett McMurphy): Birmingham vs. Arkansas
• ESPN (Mark Schlabach): No bowl game
• ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Music City Bowl vs. Auburn
• Athlon (Steve Lassan): Music City Bowl vs. South Carolina
• CBSSports: Music City Bowl vs. Arkansas

Schlabach is the first major analyst to project the Gophers to miss a bowl game this season. The rest of the projections are still quite favorable, with four games against SEC opponents, three of which are the Music City Bowl and one projection to the Birmingham Bowl against Arkansas.

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College Football Playoff/Big Ten championship odds (via FanDuel)

College Football Playoff

• Post Week 2: 15-1 (+1500)
• Post Week 3: 40-1 (+4000)

Big Ten title

• Post Week 2: 80-1 (+8000)
• Post Week 3: 100-1 (+10000)

P.J. Fleck mentioned the Gophers' "delusional" College Football Playoff hopes at Big Ten Media Days. There are plenty of opportunities left on their schedule, but the margin for error got a whole lot smaller after their loss to Cal.

Big Ten standings

My outlook on the Gophers' standing in the Big Ten didn't really change after Week 3. Cal is a good football team, and they're still one of 16 teams in the conference without a loss. Iowa-Rutgers, Michigan-Nebraska, Illinois-Indiana and Michigan State-USC are all fascinating games in their own right in Week 4. Minnesota will have to wait until Week 5 to play its Big Ten opener against Rutgers.

Liebert's post-Week 3 Big Ten power rankings

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Penn State

4. Illinois

5. USC

6. Indiana

7. Washington

8. Minnesota

9. Nebraska

10. Michigan

11. Rutgers

12. Iowa

13. Michigan State

14. Purdue

15. Wisconsin

16. Maryland

17. Northwestern

18. UCLA

Overall outlook

The College Football Playoff was also going to be a perfect scenario for this Gophers team. It still might be possible, but they would need to knock off either Ohio State or Oregon, which seems highly unlikely. Minnesota football is not a playoff-or-bust program, so there is still plenty to play for.

The Big Ten opener against Rutgers has now become that much bigger. Many people thought Minnesota could be 4-0 heading into its October 4 road game at Ohio State, so a 2-2 start before taking on the Buckeyes could be a huge disappointment. Fleck has used bye weeks to his advantage, and he will need to do so again before welcoming back Athan Kaliakmanis and the Scarlet Knights to Huntington Bank Stadium.