What are realistic expectations for Drake Lindsey's first career start?

After earning the QB1 job this offseason, redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey will finally make his first career start at the college level for the Gophers on Thursday night against Buffalo. What are realistic expectations?

For the sake of this exercise, let's first look back at the last five different starting quarterbacks for Minnesota and how they fared in their first time under center at the first offensive snap.

Zack Annexstad (vs. New Mexico State, 2018)

16/33, 220 yards, 2 TDs (48-10 W)

Annexstad's situation in 2018 is probably the closest Gophers-related example to what Lindsey faces against Buffalo. His first start came at home against the Aggies, which was a far inferior opponent. He played well for a true freshman walk-on to begin his college career.

Aug 30, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Zack Annexstad (5) drops back for a pass in the first half against the New Mexico State Aggies at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Tanner Morgan (vs. Indiana, 2018)

17/24, 302 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT (38-31 W)

Morgan replaced an injured Annextad against Nebraska, but he didn't make his first start until the following week against Indiana. He took the job and ran with it. A 17 of 24 night with 302 yards, three touchdowns and one interceptions was a tremendous first start at the college level.

Athan Kaliakmanis (@ Penn State, 2022)

9/22, 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 7 carries, 45 yards (45-17 L)

Morgan started 41 straight games before an injury forced him to miss the 2022 'White Out' game at Penn State. Kaliakmanis finished the Illinois game one week prior, but making your first college start on the road in a road environment at Beaver Stadium is a tough ask for any player. His Week 1 start in 2023 against Nebraska wasn't much better, going 24 of 44 for 196 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

USA Toda — Penn State defensive end Amin Vanover (56) hits Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to help force an incompletion in the second quarter at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in State College. Hes Dr 102222 Whiteout | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Cole Kramer (vs. Bowling Green, 2022)

8/16, 26 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 carries, 31 yards, 1 TD (30-24 W)

After Kaliakmanis opted to hit the transfer portal following the 2023 season, Kramer filled in to make his first and only start with the Gophers in the Quicklane Bowl against Bowling Green. He went 8 of 16 for 26 yards, two touchdowns and one interception with 3 carries for 31 yards and one touchdown on the ground.

Max Brosmer (vs. North Carolina, 2024)

13/21, 165 yards, 9 carries, -5 yards, 1 TD (19-17 L)

Brosmer's worst start in a Gophers uniform came in Week 1 against North Carolina. He had a season-low 13 completions on 21 attempts for a season-low 165 yards, and it was one of two games he had zero touchdown passes. It was a perfect reason not to take too much stock in one game.

Realistic expectations for Lindsey

Minnesota has historically taken a catious approach with a first-time starting quarterback under Fleck. The last five starters have averaged 23.2 pass attempts in their first start. Offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh Jr. has said that he put a lot more on Lindsey's plate this preseason, but I would expect something like 13/22 for 150-175 yards for one touchdown. If Brosmer's Week 1 performance taught us anything last year, it's important not to overreact.