Tony Liebert's NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks: Final Four, Cinderellas, Hardest Teams to Pick

Is March running out of Madness? Everyone seemed to panic last year when all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008. The transfer portal, NIL, and conference realignment have changed the sport, and there were seemingly fewer upsets than ever last season. Are Cinderella stories a thing of the past? Let's try to predict this year's bracket.

There are a few different ways you can attack filling out a bracket. If you're trying to win your pool or competition, don't get too caught up in the first round. It's fun to pick upsets, but getting the most Sweet 16, Elite Eight, and Final Four teams is how you win. Now more than ever, don't pick too many upsets either. I could spew some historical context, but I try to start picking more upsets in the second and third rounds when the talent gap isn't as wide. Let's get into it.

East Region

Predicted East region | Photo via: NCAA.com

The pundits have already pointed out how this region is loaded with blue-blood programs and Hall of Fame head coaches. Don't get fooled by the name recognition, as many of these teams have shown weaknesses all season.

Final Four: Duke

Duke looked vulnerable for the first time in a long time in the ACC Tournament without starting point guard Caleb Foster and starting big man Patrick Ngongba II, but they still won the event rather comfortably. There's a good chance Ngongba returns, while Foster is likely out for the year. Ultimately, Cam Boozer is clearly the best player in this region, and Duke is clearly the best team, making them an easy pick to advance to another Final Four.

Cinderella potential: USF

My favorite double-digit seed in this bracket, and the tournament as a whole, is USF. First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson has built a Power Conference-level roster, which is harder to do now more than ever at a mid-major. Wes Enis is a legit guard who could go for 20+ any night. I love their draw against Louisville and then Michigan State or NDSU. They could make a real run.

South Florida men's basketball coach Bryan Hodgson coaches his team against Alabama at Coleman Coliseum. | Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Toughest team to gauge: UConn

Dan Hurley has built another contender in Stoors, but they looked vulnerable in a relatively down Big East towards the end of the season. UCLA or UCF is a tough matchup in the second round, followed by Michigan State or USF in the Sweet 16. Hurley has figured out how to win in March, but he will have to prove me wrong this time around.

South Region

Final Four: Houston

Kelvin Sampson has built Houston into one of the most consistent programs in the country, and they have a different feel this season. Instead of being a low-scoring physical team, they lean more on their offense. Kingston Flemings is the type of guard who can take over any game. I think the Cougars got a good draw, and they seek revenge for last year's national championship and sneak past Florida to get to the Final Four.

Cinderella potential: Troy

The Trojans are back in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year under Scott Cross, who should be a candidate for a bigger job this offseason. They had a road win at San Diego State in the nonconference and nearly beat USC on the road in their next game. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game, and I think the Cornhuskers will have a tough task in the first round.

Toughest team to gauge: Illinois

The Fighting Illini routinely have one of the most fun teams to watch in the sport under Brad Underwood. This year is no different, with potential lottery pick Keaton Wagler, freshman David Mirkovic, veteran Kylan Boswell, and the Ivisic brothers in the frontcourt. Would it surprise me if they made the Final Four? No, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they bow out before the Sweet 16.

West Region

Final Four: Arizona

Narratives are often built on a coach's past performances in March, and Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd has become known as someone who struggles to win the big game. I think that ends this year. The Wildcats have been the most consistent team in the country all season. They have two legit guards with Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley. Koa Peat is a legit NBA Draft prospect, and their frontcourt of Motiejus Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov can match up with anyone. They might have the easiest bracket out of all four one-seeds, and I think they cruise to the Final Four.

Cinderella potential: Darius Acuff Jr.

I really don't love any of the double-digit seeds in this bracket, but I do think Acuff is the best guard in the entire tournament. Runs from players like Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier have shown us that elite guards are sometimes all you need to go on a run in March. Arkansas might have the pieces to make a run, and it's because of Acuff.

Toughest team to gauge: Purdue

I was ready to predict an early exit for Purdue until they won the Big Ten Tournament championship. The preseason No. 1 team in the country has been disappointing, but they've seemingly figured it out over the last few weeks. They have a cakewalk to the Sweet 16 and a great chance at the Elite Eight. I don't believe in them enough to think they'll make the Final Four, but the bracket played out in their favor.

Midwest Region

Predicted Midwest region | Photo: NCAA.com

Final Four: Tennessee

It's boring to pick chalk for the Final Four, and Tennessee is my dark-horse pick. Rick Barnes is another coach who has recently had some early exits in the NCAA Tournament, but I love how he constructed this team, and they have a good draw. Ja'Kobi Gillespie is a big-time guard, and Nate Ament is a legit first-round NBA Draft pick. The rest of their team will bully anyone they face. They were up and down all season, but they do have a neutral court win over Houston. I think they put it all together and make a long run.

Cinderella potential: Santa Clara

My second-favorite double-digit seed in this year's field is the Santa Clara Broncos, who are making their first appearance in March Madness since Steve Nash was on the team. Longtime head coach Herb Sendek has developed a great mid-major program, and they're finally on the national scale. Sophomore Christian Hammond can light it up, and they're a young team that has developed within the program, not in the transfer portal.

Toughest team to gauge: Iowa State

Santa Clara is a mid-major program I identified early this season, which might be causing me to overlook Iowa State. Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, and Milan Momcilovic are one of the best trios in the country, but they have looked vulnerable at times with road losses to Cincinnati, TCU, and BYU. They're certainly a team that could make me look silly.

Final Four picks

Duke over Houston
Arizona over Tennessee
Championship: Arizona over Duke

I think Duke gets revenge for last year's Final Four collapse and beats Houston to advance to the championship game. Tennessee's surprising run stops in the Final Four and Arizona advances to the national title game to face the Blue Devils.

Arizona has all of the pieces to be a national champion, and I think Tommy Lloyd finally gets the job done and climbs to the top of the college basketball mountain.