Analysis: All eyes on Ginn and Jordan as MLB Draft enters final day

The first day of the 2020 Major League Baseball Draft went just about as expected on Wednesday for Mississippi State.

MSU signee Austin Hendrick was thought to be one of the premier bats in the draft and he was often projected to be the first player with Bulldog ties to be taken. He was just that, going 12th overall to Cincinnati. Two picks later, State second baseman Justin Foscue was picked by the Texas Rangers. Foscue's double-play partner, shortstop Jordan Westburg later went 30th overall to the Baltimore Orioles. Both Foscue and Westburg were mentioned frequently as first-round possibilities. Both indeed were.

What does it all mean? With Hendrick and Foscue both being taken in positions with slot values north of $4 million and Westburg's slot value sitting higher than $2.3 million, it's a near certainty all three will go ahead and begin professional careers. MSU head coach Chris Lemonis seemed to be planning for such a scenario anyway, as he outlined in an exclusive Q&A with Cowbell Corner last week (CLICK HERE TO READ THE Q&A WITH LEMONIS).

Now is where things get really interesting and hard calls have to be made.

As the second and final day of this year's shortened MLB Draft gets underway at 4 p.m. central today, all Mississippi State eyes are on pitcher J.T. Ginn and signee Blaze Jordan. Will the ultra-talented right-hander, Ginn, get chosen and receive the offer he wants, or, could things be shaping up in such a way where it'd be better for him to return to Starkville? As for Jordan, could his powerful bat actually slip far enough down where he decides a few years wearing maroon and white is just what he needs to build his stock up to where he wants? It all sets up for an intriguing evening for the Bulldogs.

The thing to remember Thursday is this. It's likely not so much where Ginn and Jordan are picked as what they are offered financially. Though teams can pay over or under slot value if they so choose, those dollar figures can often give a general idea for what a drafted prospect can expect to be offered.

Here are the slot values for today's second-round picks as well as the Competitive Balance Round B that follows, courtesy of MLB.com:

Second Round
38) Tigers: $1,952,300
39) Orioles: $1,906,800
40) Marlins: $1,856,700
41) Royals: $1,813,500
42) Blue Jays: $1,771,100
43) Mariners: $1,729,800
44) Pirates: $1,689,500
45) Padres: $1,650,200
46) Rockies: $1,617,400
47) White Sox: $1,580,200
48) Reds: $1,543,600
49) Giants: $1,507,600
50) Rangers: $1,469,900
51) Cubs: $1,436,900
52) Mets: $1,403,200
53) Brewers: $1,370,400
54) Cardinals $1,338,500
55) Nationals: $1,307,000
56) Indians: $1,276,400
57) Rays: $1,243,600
58) Athletics: $1,214,300
59) Twins: $1,185,500
60) Dodgers: $1,157,400

Competitive Balance Round B
61) Marlins: $1,129,700
62) Tigers: $1,102,700
63) Cardinals: $1,076,300 (from Rays via trade)
64) Mariners: $1,050,300 (from Brewers via trade)
65) Reds: $1,025,100
66) Dodgers: $1,003,300 (from Twins via trade)

From the 67th overall pick on, all slot values are less than $1 million. And while, as stated earlier, teams are allowed to exceed slot values, it seems likely Ginn and Jordan would have to be picked either in the second round or Competitive Balance Round B to get near a dollar amount that might entice them to not be on the 2021 MSU roster. Obviously neither Ginn nor Jordan have publicized what they are looking for in a signing bonus, but given their talent levels, a seven-figure bonus would almost certainly have to be on the table if a team is serious about inking Ginn or Jordan.

In Ginn's case, remember he turned down a reported $2.4 million just two years ago when he was a first-round pick out of high school in 2018. Given that, it might be a fair guess to assume he'd at least like to get somewhere close to around that number again. No one could blame Ginn for having a high asking price either, if that's the case. Remember basically the only reason he wasn't a surefire first-rounder on Wednesday was because of his elbow surgery earlier this year. Ginn has all the leverage in the world as he can return to MSU in 2021, still be a sophomore (because of the extra year of eligibility the NCAA granted all 2020 spring sport athletes) then if he proves he is healthy, he can come out and be a likely first-rounder in 2021. Or if he needed two years to get fully healthy, he could do that too as he'd still have negotiating leverage in 2022 as just a junior. In summary, Ginn is in a pretty good position, all things considered. His injury might have hurt his cause for 2020, but his talent and his leverage has him in an ideal spot where he doesn't have to take the first amount that's offered right now if it isn't to his liking.

As for Jordan, it might all come down to how much he believes he can better himself by coming to Mississippi State. The corner infielder is already thought of as a player with a ton of raw power. If he came to Starkville and really unleashed that power, he could be a no-doubt first-rounder in a few years. On the other side of that coin, Jordan might get picked early on Thursday, get a seven-figure offer and like the safety of taking that now. Because there are of course never guarantees that he'd come to MSU and be the hitter he'd need to be to leap into the first round in the future. It also bears noting Jordan is just 17. What a tough, tough call for a 17-year-old to make.

Also worth monitoring Thursday is whether or not State outfielder Tanner Allen gets drafted at any point. He seems the most likely of State's other juniors to hear his name called. If he does, he too faces a decision. Does he take the money he is offered or take advantage of his own extra year of eligibility, play again as a junior in 2021 and possibly better his draft stock for next June?

We'll start to get an idea for some of these answers on Thursday, but keep in mind draft picks have until August 1 to sign deals with the teams that pick them. So it could be days or weeks before there is any finality to any of this.