How Loss to Oklahoma Could Impact Mizzou's Postseason Outlook

For all of the huge wins that Missouri has captured this season, the Tigers have also seemingly mastered the art of a letdown.

After a win over No. 22 Tennessee that was followed by a blowout win over Mississippi State, the Tigers came out completely flat against Oklahoma on Tuesday night.

Missouri gave up 16 turnovers, shot 33.3 percent from 3-point range. Missouri had four shots blocked in the first half alone. The firepower the Tigers brought offensively in the last week was completely missing.

After the win over Mississippi State, Missouri seemed like a lock for the NCAA Tournament after surviving weeks on the bubble. The loss to the Sooners isn’t a good look on Missouri’s resume, though Oklahoma was slightly favored. It could also change the outlook for Missouri’s postseason.

Barring another blowout loss to Arkansas to end the regular season and a poor showing in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers should still feel good heading into Selection Sunday. The loss against the Sooners stacked with one against Arkansas would obviously limit the ceiling of Missouri’s potential seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But the more immediate concern of the Tuesday loss is how it could affect their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Missouri lost control of its seeding destiny by losing to Oklahoma. Missouri having wins over five teams placed inside the top eight of the SEC standings has given them significant tie-breaker advantages. But those could be broken down in the last two games of the regular season for the remainder of the conference.

Going into the game against Oklahoma, Missouri had a chance to earn either the third or fourth seed in the conference tournament, both of which would’ve provided a bye in the first two rounds. After Tuesday's action, Missouri will enter Wednesday at fifth place in the SEC. But, the picture for how games Wednesday and Saturday could impact the Tigers has become a lot more jarring.

Missouri could hypothetically still could earn a double bye, but would need to win against Arkansas on Saturday, have Tennessee lose to Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and have Texas lose either on Wednesday to Arkansas or on Saturday to Oklahoma.

At the time of Missouri’s loss to Oklahoma, Tuesday’s SEC action also included Kentucky losing to Texas A&M, which helped Missouri’s chances for a double bye to stay alive.

If the Tigers lose to Arkansas on Saturday, however, Missouri’s fate will mostly be in the hands of other results.

Texas, who is currently a game and a half behind Missouri with two games remaining for the Longhorns, are a key team to watch to possibly leapfrog the Tigers. Vanderbilt, who tipped off against Ole Miss near the end of Missouri’s game, could also jump ahead of the Tigers if they close out the season with two wins.

Some potential bad news for Missouri came Tuesday night with Georgia grabbing an upset win over Alabama. The win puts Georgia, who has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Missouri, one game behind the Tigers. If a loss for the Tigers on Saturday is paired with a Georgia win over Mississippi State, a January loss to Georgia would come back to bite Missouri in the final regular season standings.

With all the possibilities for how the last four days of the regular season could affect Missouri, it's a reminder of the fact that the Tigers, on any given night, have the ability to be either their own worst enemy or their own hero. It just depends on what version of the team shows up for the night, and what possible mismatch the opponent is able to exploit.

These qualities of Missouri make the Tigers an incredibly interesting team for a tournament setup. For better or worse, nothing is guaranteed for the Tigers in any game.