Using Odds, KenPom to Predict the Top Seeds in 2026 NCAA Tournament

March is finally here and before we know it, we'll have a bracket in our hands, ready to fill out.

Before Selection Sunday, we can make some predictions for who will be the top seeds in this year's NCAA Tournament. There are several resources we can use to help us predict how the seeds will be set in a few weeks, including KenPom's Net Ratings and the latest betting odds for the National Championship.

I'm going to do exactly that, and predict the 16 teams that will make up the top four seeds in the tournament, along with their odds to win the National Championship. Let's dive into them.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday Predictions

No. 1 Seeds

Michigan (+330)
Duke (+350)
Arizona (+475)
UConn (+1600)

Three of the top No. 1 seeds are virtually locked up at this point. Duke, Arizona, and Michigan are all -20000 to be a No. 1 seed in the tournament, an implied probability of 99.5%. Even if they don't win their conference tournaments, they've done enough to be a top seed.

The only remaining question is which team will get the four No. 1 seeds. Florida has the fourth-best odds to win the National Championship at +800, and the Gators are also fourth in KenPom's Net Ratings. With that being said, it's not always the top four teams that get the four No. 1 seeds.

DraftKings has UConn with better odds to be a No. 1 seed at -260, compared to Florida at +115. The reason being the two teams have extremely similar resumes and are in first place in their respective conferences. With that being said, UConn has a much easier path to winning the Big East Tournament, with St. John's being their only legitimate competition. Meanwhile, Florida will have several tough matchups in the SEC Tournament.

If UConn wins the Big East and Florida stumbles in the SEC Tournament, I think the Huskies will be given the fourth No. 1 seed.

No. 2 Seeds

Florida (+800)
Houston (+1000)
Iowa State (+1900)
Illinois (+1700)

This is where things get a little bit trickier. One of the four No. 2 seeds will certainly be whichever team between Florida and UConn doesn't get a No. 1 seed. I can also say pretty confidently that Iowa State and Houston will both be a No. 2 seed. They're currently ranked sixth and seventh in both the AP Poll and KenPom rankings.

I believe the fourth No. 2 seed will be a team from the Big Ten. Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois are all options. Illinois is currently ranked fifth in KenPom rankings, and the Fighting Illini have the seventh-best odds to win the National Championship at +1700, better than Michigan State and Purdue, who are both at 40-1.

No. 3 Seeds

Gonzaga (+5500)
Purdue (+4000)
Kansas (+2800)
Michigan State (+4000)

The four No. 3 seeds line up perfectly with the next four teams on the odds list to win the National Championship: Purdue, Michigan State, Kansas, and Gonzaga. If Michigan State or Purdue gets a No. 2 seed instead of Illinois, you can slot in the Fighting Illini n at No. 3.

Despite stumbling lately, Kansas has enough big wins to earn a No. 3 seed. The Jayhawks have wins against Tennessee, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona, and Houston.

No. 4 Seeds

Alabama (+6500)
Nebraska (+7500)
St. John's (+7000)
Texas Tech (+10000)

I think the SEC is going to get plenty of lower-seeded teams in the tournament, but I don't think there will be a team from that conference listed as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Behind Florida, I can see Alabama getting a No. 4 seed. They have some great wins, but losses to Texas, Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee are going to hurt their rankings.

Nebraska is in a similar situation. Plenty of great wins, but too many losses to top-tier teams will slot them in nicely at a No. 4 seed. St. John's is going to be a victim of a lack of competition in the Big East, but the Red Storm's win against UConn in the first meeting between these two teams will be big for their seeding. Finally, Texas Tech will get a No. 4 seed. Losses to UCF and Arizona State are going to hurt the Red Raiders, but they have massive wins against Arizona, Iowa State, and Houston.

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