Red Flags, Green Flags for Mizzou Basketball Midway Through SEC Play

Evaluating Missouri at the halfway point of conference play.

Mizzou Men's Basketball huddles up during the Braggin Rights game | Sam Simon/MissouriOnSI

Missouri basketball has had a confusing season up to this point.

December saw the Tigers lose by 20 and 43 to their two biggest rivals.

Missouri responded with wins over Florida and Kentucky to open conference play. Those two still stand as the best two wins on the season for Missouri, providing them some breathing room for the rest of January.

But since those two wins, Missouri has gone 3-4 in conference play, a stretch that included losses to three of the top teams currently in the bottom six of the conference standings. It also included a 26-point blowout loss to then-No. 23 Alabama.

Now, Missouri sits at No. 7 in the conference at the midway point of the conference season. They have the middle of the week off before returning to the court Saturday to play at South Carolina.

The room for error for Missouri at this point is rather slim. In Joe Lunardi's Bracketology projection from Monday, the Tigers were listed in the "next four out" category.

If Missouri can more consistently play its best brand of basketball for 40 minutes, it can probably recah the level it needs to in order to make a serious arguement for the NCAA Tournament. But consistency itself has been a problem for the team.

At the midway point of conference play, here's a look at reasons to have optimism, green flags, about the Tigers, and reasons to have concerns, red flags.

Green flag: Trent Pierce has arrived

Jan 3, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Trent Pierce (11) celebrates an officiating call during a game against the Florida Gators at Mizzou Arena. | Sam Simon

After suffering the most lopsided loss in the series against Illinois, Dennis Gates pleaded that injuries to Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce were severely limiting the team.

January proved he was right. This team is completely different with those two on the court, especially with Pierce finally taking the strides in his development that he was expected to.

Pierce developing to the player that he was anticipated to in the first two years of his career has been crucial for a Missouri offense that hasn't had much else to rely on in most games. He's scored 10 or more points through four games this season, three of which the Tigers won.

He was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time this season in the Tigers' last game before the break, earning the spot against Mississippi State. He scored 13 points, including nine from 3-point range and led the Tigers to an early 21-11 lead after he made two 3s in the first six minutes.

He's quickly become one of the best and most important players for Missouri. If he can continue to become more consistent of a scorer, it would go a long way for the Tigers' offense.

Red flag: Can Ant return to form?

Dec 22, 2025; St. Louis; Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson II checks out of a game against Illinois at the Enterprise Center. | Sam Simon

One of the most surprising things to have learned in the preseason would've been that by late January, a healthy Anthony Robinson II would be removed from the starting lineup and rarely be on the court in cruicial situations.

Entering the season, it seemed that so much of this team's potential would hinge on how much of a leap Robinson was able to take after a sophomore year where he earned a spot on the All-SEC defensive team.

Instead, Robinson has looked like a shell of himself since the game at Ole Miss, Missouri's third game of conference play. In the last seven games, he's shot 25% from the field (10 for 40), including a 1-for-17 mark on 3s. He's averaged 2.1 assists, but also 2 turnovers per game.

After shooting 77.1 percent from the free-throw line last season, he's down to 67.1 percent this season.

Gates has been blunt with the slump Robinson is in.

"We have to understand that Ant Robinson has to continue to play better for us," Gates said in a press conference on Jan. 19. "If he does not play well, we don't have a chance, I believe."

But Gates has been just adamant about his faith in Robinson to regain his confidence and get back to himself as a player.

"I think collectively, we are at our best when each and every guy, especially Ant Robinson, is playing well," Gates said in a press conference. "He'll get to the other side of it, no different than he has in his last two seasons here."

Robinson's teammates have also remained confident that this is just a phase he'll be able to get over.

"Just keep being himself," guard T.O. Barrett said of what the team's message has been to Robinson. "We're not worried about Ant at all. He'll find himself."

Robinson being able to return to where he was at even in December of this season, where he averaged 15.3 points across a three-game span, would be a huge new factor for Missouri. Especially if he can complement Barrett, the sophomore who has done an impressive job of replacing Robinson in the starting lineup.

Depends on the day: Late-game execution

Jan 24, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Mark Mitchell (25) celebrates after a buzzer beater to defeat the Oklahoma Sooners in overtime at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Missouri is just a few plays away from being 7-2, a record that would put them at second if the conference. But the Tigers are also just a few plays away from being 2-7. The spot right in the middle of those two extremes feels like the best representaion of what this team actually has been through January.

Missouri has won on circumstances as wild as buzzer beaters to end both regulation and overtime, but have lost on a last-second layup from Georgia ad fell short on a comeback attempt against LSU. Against Auburn and Mississippi State, Missouri nearly let late leads of 12 and 13 slip out of its hands in the final minutes.

This certainly isn't the 2023-2024 Missouri team where collapsing in the final 10 minutes is a near guarantee. The bigger issues in the losses that have come in the final minutes for the Tigers is how they performed in the first 30 minutes.

Missouri clearly is able to fight back and find the right plays in the final minutes on most nights. But sometimes the opponent makes just one more play.

When a team is consistently living on the wire like this, part of their fate is handed over to chance. The rest of its season could hinge on just a few key moments in the last nine games of the regular season.